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| Again it’s switching to SY…sorry but a lot of the BY parents are gonna be in for a rude awakening |
This is right. My late bday DD U15 RL has no hope at this point. Wasn’t big enough or fast at age 7. I’m really not kidding—that’s when we say the big fast girls be allowed to do whatever they wanted on the field, and get moved to top teams and coaches. No delusions that SY will change anything here, that’s the only part of this I disagree with. This is especially true because the girls and women’s game is hugely physical with many coaches teaching to slam the body before getting the ball. It makes me sad because DD loves soccer so much, but unless she moved to Spain, has really no chance at higher level play. |
A lot of good points about what's about to happen and perhaps over expectations, but it's won't be just Q4 RL players seeking spots on higher teams -- it's all the players on USYS top clubs and those who want to jump from GA (which happens each year anyway) -- ECNL gets better by recruiting the best from those leagues. There will be NL quality there and top clubs will take it if they can find it. |
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The funny part of all these amateur RAE professors is that everyone keeps missing the part that the studies focus on actual elite athletes and top level team selections
Not pay-to-play subpar players and teams The studies are mainly about very good late developers with potential who get left off rosters of elite teams for good early bloomers with better current physicality performance and maturation. It's not about every kick and run Mary, Tom and Jane being 1st or 4th quarter BY |
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"I don't know the birthdays of every kid but from what I have seen at our very big club, there are very few Q4s on any NL team (or at least the two my kids play on). "
I think we are agreeing on this point. There aren't that many Q4s on any of the NL teams. Which is why you can GENERALLY (not absolutely) say at the club level if you are a Q4 NL player you will LIKELY easily have a spot on the younger NL team in 2026. Lets say the older team has 4 players that are moving down, the team below has 3 that are moving down. It's not 1:1 but no one is getting cut because of it. There are roster size changes moving from 7V7, 9V9, 11V11. In 2026 we'll lose 3, gain 4, and because of the increase in roster size, we'll still have spots open. I can gurantee you there is not going to be this crazy mass replacement of NL teams with RL players. At the PRE-ECNL level, I have no doubt that there will be 1-3 Q4 RL players that move to the NL team the age group below, they are the same players that would would make their current age NL team as the roster size expands, and would need to be the Top players on their current RL team. 2nd team players who are talented and skilled always move up to the first team as the roster size increases and sometimes based on talent beating out the bottom level of current team. It's crazy to think that all of the sudden coaches of existing NL teams who are beating the older RL teams will be making any major changes. |
RAE is just a theory that helps explain the reality, tho -- all the stats showing top teams tend to skew toward the oldest kids. This very true dynamic -- regardless of cause -- will provide lots of opportunity not typically present during this switch. |
There has been plenty of studies among average populations with the same results. |
Are people thinking the RL player that lacked the skill and IQ to be NL in '25 is all of a sudden going to be Pulisic or Wambach in '26 because of age cutoff shift? |
Yes, I can confirm that. My daughter is September, she plays pre-ECNL U12. We have been told she is going to be considered to play up/down at RL/NL. Our club is making inventory of Q3/Q4 players to relocate them according to the new system SY. |
| Now we are between the bartering and acceptance phase, it is happening but won't be a big deal because RAE doesn't exist. Is there anything we can do to help you guys through this process? |
Then it will shift the effect from Q1 to Q3 as Q3 will become the new Q1 for that specific league However, SY Q1 will still be Q3 against BY/Calendar Q1s in the real world |
The distribution of Q2/Q3 kids will look like the current Q3/Q4 kids in the next 24 moths. There are alot of people who dont realize how profound the difference is end of the year kids. Best of luck all and the end of the day its justa game we paly for fun. |
| Our club has 2 NL Q4 and 6 RL…the team below is mediocre. The RL team would run the below NL team below. My guess is the 2 NL and at least 4 to 6 RL move down and will take over the new team. |
Are people thinking that the Q1 or Q2 MLSN or ECNL player the lacked the skill and IQ but was bigger and faster because of age is all of a sudden going to be not as good relative to the new older kids because of the age cutoff shift? Um, yes. And somebody has to replace them. Q4 players will have to worry about teams and coaches stuck in player lock though so switching teams could be massive next year. |
Yes this is exactly my view. I have kids at various ages, and I think alot of the parents arguing here just have one view of another, but from what I see this is spot on. At older ages its just a shuffle from NL to NL and RL to RL, however at the smaller sided teams, most of the top 2 9v9 teams are all on track for the top 11v11 NL team, and much of the second 9v9 team will be top of the roster on the top team the age group down. It's still essentially NL to NL but it'll *feel* like a big shuffle for the younger kids I think. |