"Opening up" means risking your life

[jsteele]

Anonymous wrote:If Drs. Fauci and Birx are indeed experts to be trusted, are we to assume, then, that the administration's phased reopening plan, with the ball in states' court, with federal assistance as appropriate, has no basis in rational thought? Or are we assuming that they have become beholden to Trump and are merely doing the best they can in tough circumstances, due to Trump's egomania and other faults? If the latter, shouldn't they resign? I'm just trying to separate out the political from the rest of it, and I hope that folks are not letting their political preferences drive their opinions.

I think that both Fauci and Brix, but Brix more so, are making compromises for what they believe to be the greater good. Trump's "plan" is hardly a plan at all. It is a series of high-level guidelines. More importantly, it is not at all clear that Trump even wants to adhere to the guidelines given his tweets today about "liberating" states. What was presented yesterday overlooks or ignores much of what is needed to successfully re-open. It appears designed to allow Trump to take credit if states reopen successfully and blame the governors if things go bad.

[Anonymous]

Jeff, I think you are still focused on preventing infection. This is simply impossible to do. If it was possible, we would have done it with the seasonal flu since it kills so many people each year. As is, even vaccination is a hit or miss for seasonal flu. The coronavirus by best current measures is *more* transmissive and *more* deadly. People who have been kept away from getting it now, will get it later. The only thing we can do is to spread out the infection over a longer time period. There is no way to prevent COVID-19 spread.

[Anonymous]

I think that there must be someone in the Trump administration who believes that summer weather will mitigate the contagiousness of the virus. The science on that is mixed, at best, with more scientists seeming to think it will not make a material difference. In any event, absent a vaccine (and there won't be one for 12-18 months), the virus would come roaring back in or around September. But I honestly don't know what to do about a collapsing economy that seems to have little more going for it now than sales of food, toilet paper, and curbside delivery. The elites ("ruling" class) will always do whatever it takes to remain on top of the socioeconomic pyramid as they see it.

[Anonymous]

jsteele wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If Drs. Fauci and Birx are indeed experts to be trusted, are we to assume, then, that the administration's phased reopening plan, with the ball in states' court, with federal assistance as appropriate, has no basis in rational thought? Or are we assuming that they have become beholden to Trump and are merely doing the best they can in tough circumstances, due to Trump's egomania and other faults? If the latter, shouldn't they resign? I'm just trying to separate out the political from the rest of it, and I hope that folks are not letting their political preferences drive their opinions.

I think that both Fauci and Brix, but Brix more so, are making compromises for what they believe to be the greater good. Trump's "plan" is hardly a plan at all. It is a series of high-level guidelines. More importantly, it is not at all clear that Trump even wants to adhere to the guidelines given his tweets today about "liberating" states. What was presented yesterday overlooks or ignores much of what is needed to successfully re-open. It appears designed to allow Trump to take credit if states reopen successfully and blame the governors if things go bad.

Another poster put up a link saying the US refusing WHO's tests was false. Did you see it?

[Anonymous]

jsteele wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

jsteele wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

jsteele wrote:

Anonymous wrote:1. Which WHO test are you referring to?
2. Where exactly are these WHO tests?

I am not sure if you are just being argumentative or you really want to know. But a German laboratory developed a coronavirus test that was adopted by the WHO and offered to other countries. The US developed its own test which was initially flawed. I am not sure which countries are using the WHO test now, but I believe Germany is since it was developed there.

Am very interested in more info about this German test. Is there a name to it, or a company name?

Roche Molecular Systems

FDA approved mid-March: https://www.medtechdive.com/news/coronavirus-roche-test-fda-emergency-use/574073/

That perfectly demonstrates the problem. We should have been testing from January. Trump cost us the entire month of February and half of March downplaying the epidemic.

Jeff seriously who would you have tested in January

At the end of February there were 78 cases and one case of communal transmission

[jsteele]

Anonymous wrote:

jsteele wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If Drs. Fauci and Birx are indeed experts to be trusted, are we to assume, then, that the administration's phased reopening plan, with the ball in states' court, with federal assistance as appropriate, has no basis in rational thought? Or are we assuming that they have become beholden to Trump and are merely doing the best they can in tough circumstances, due to Trump's egomania and other faults? If the latter, shouldn't they resign? I'm just trying to separate out the political from the rest of it, and I hope that folks are not letting their political preferences drive their opinions.

I think that both Fauci and Brix, but Brix more so, are making compromises for what they believe to be the greater good. Trump's "plan" is hardly a plan at all. It is a series of high-level guidelines. More importantly, it is not at all clear that Trump even wants to adhere to the guidelines given his tweets today about "liberating" states. What was presented yesterday overlooks or ignores much of what is needed to successfully re-open. It appears designed to allow Trump to take credit if states reopen successfully and blame the governors if things go bad.

Another poster put up a link saying the US refusing WHO's tests was false. Did you see it?

The US chose not to use the WHO's test and, instead, developed a flawed test that caused an initial testing setback from which we have still not recovered. The earlier link simply said that the WHO did not offer the test to the US and the US did not refuse it. That is a strange point to argue given that the US did not have to wait to be offered the test and even could have obtained it directly from the German manufacturer. The point that you cannot deny is that there were available tests that the US did not utilized, instead developing a flawed test.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

jsteele wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

jsteele wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Pretty certain that at least some people who aren’t part of the “ruling” class would benefit if some businesses opened up if it was deemed safe by reasonable governors of their respective states.

They will benefit right up to the point that they are infected with coronavirus.

And 99% plus will survive it and go on to see another day.

Exactly. I mean just look at VA’s number of deaths. For a state this big, we have 231 deaths. Most of those deaths are coming from people over 70 years old with other complications. I mean, yeah I understand social distancing and whatnot, but is all of this worth it for such a low number of people?

For all the people who give the stats on car accidents, the flu, a shooting, etc as being risks that are just as deadly....it’s hard to argue against them at this point.

I’m game for doing this for another month. But if the numbers remain low, people are going to be pissed off if they’re losing their livelihoods just because 300 people died.

Maybe give this a bit more thought? Social distancing has kept death numbers low so you want to end social distancing? That's like building a levee to prevent floods and then dismantling it because you haven't had a flood.

We have to take the necessary steps to prevent a resurgence before we can re-open safely. Of course, if you want to open unsafely, please go first.

Pp, you couldn’t make better sense. I think people also forget that at any time, any one of us might need to go to the ER for something unrelated to the virus. I’m already hearing stories about how those people haven’t been giving priority and are dying from things that could’ve been treated. Everything is cyclical. We must all do our part.

You heard "stories," in other words gossip likely made up or exaggerated. Most hospitals right now are idle and operating well below capacity. Many are at 20% capacity and hospitals across the country are facing fiscal crises because they don't have the normal revenue flow.

Which means we have an enormous, underutilized hospital capacity across the country. The goal of the shutdown was to flatten the curve rather than see spikes overwhelming the system. This clearly has not happened, if anything, it resulted in an underwhelmed healthcare system with most health professionals furloughed or laid off due to a lack of work.

What to do now. You tell me. You also tell the 22+ million unemployed Americans what to do.

The VA is short of PPE.

[jsteele]

Anonymous wrote:

jsteele wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

jsteele wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

jsteele wrote:

Anonymous wrote:1. Which WHO test are you referring to?
2. Where exactly are these WHO tests?

I am not sure if you are just being argumentative or you really want to know. But a German laboratory developed a coronavirus test that was adopted by the WHO and offered to other countries. The US developed its own test which was initially flawed. I am not sure which countries are using the WHO test now, but I believe Germany is since it was developed there.

Am very interested in more info about this German test. Is there a name to it, or a company name?

Roche Molecular Systems

FDA approved mid-March: https://www.medtechdive.com/news/coronavirus-roche-test-fda-emergency-use/574073/

That perfectly demonstrates the problem. We should have been testing from January. Trump cost us the entire month of February and half of March downplaying the epidemic.

Jeff seriously who would you have tested in January

At the end of February there were 78 cases and one case of communal transmission

I would have tested travelers from places that had COVID outbreaks. Trump repeatedly brings up his travel ban, but it still allowed 10s of thousands of travelers from China. There were obviously a great more than 78 cases by the end of February but limited testing meant they could not be identified.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

jsteele wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

jsteele wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

jsteele wrote:

Anonymous wrote:1. Which WHO test are you referring to?
2. Where exactly are these WHO tests?

I am not sure if you are just being argumentative or you really want to know. But a German laboratory developed a coronavirus test that was adopted by the WHO and offered to other countries. The US developed its own test which was initially flawed. I am not sure which countries are using the WHO test now, but I believe Germany is since it was developed there.

Am very interested in more info about this German test. Is there a name to it, or a company name?

Roche Molecular Systems

FDA approved mid-March: https://www.medtechdive.com/news/coronavirus-roche-test-fda-emergency-use/574073/

That perfectly demonstrates the problem. We should have been testing from January. Trump cost us the entire month of February and half of March downplaying the epidemic.

Jeff seriously who would you have tested in January

At the end of February there were 78 cases and one case of communal transmission

Distribute tests to health facilities. Remember we had an unusual bad 'flu' season. Doctors could have prescribed tests to patients in January so we knew the scope of the spread of the virus. There was only 78 cases is precisely due to CDC's slow response to testing in February.

Take a look at Germany and South Korea when we had the first case on the same day. Germany can safely open because it KNOWS its R0 is below 1 because of the testing. We on the other hand have no idea.

[jsteele]

Anonymous wrote:Jeff, I think you are still focused on preventing infection. This is simply impossible to do. If it was possible, we would have done it with the seasonal flu since it kills so many people each year. As is, even vaccination is a hit or miss for seasonal flu. The coronavirus by best current measures is *more* transmissive and *more* deadly. People who have been kept away from getting it now, will get it later. The only thing we can do is to spread out the infection over a longer time period. There is no way to prevent COVID-19 spread.

Yes, I am focused on preventing the spread of infection. COVID-19 is 10 times more deadly than the seasonal flu and appears to be much more contagious. I am all in favor of re-opening, but only when sufficient preparation has been done to do so safely. I think the crux of the issue is that sufficient preparation is difficult and Trump is doing nothing to assist. Therefore, many don't want to address the topic at all and just want to open up and come what may. I am completely in favor with that attitude going first. I oppose a re-opening that sacrifices some for the benefit of others,.

[Anonymous]

Per VP Pence, states now have enough tests for phase one. Dr. Fauci explains that the fundamental problem with screening (not the antibody) testing is that a negative test today doesn’t mean a negative test tomorrow. Tests are clearly important but not the end all be all. The normie “we need more tests” mantra needs to understand this.

[jsteele]

Anonymous wrote:Per VP Pence, states now have enough tests for phase one. Dr. Fauci explains that the fundamental problem with screening (not the antibody) testing is that a negative test today doesn’t mean a negative test tomorrow. Tests are clearly important but not the end all be all. The normie “we need more tests” mantra needs to understand this.

These guys are downplaying testing because it is an area of failure. The countries that have been successful in combatting this have done so via massive testing.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Per VP Pence, states now have enough tests for phase one. Dr. Fauci explains that the fundamental problem with screening (not the antibody) testing is that a negative test today doesn’t mean a negative test tomorrow. Tests are clearly important but not the end all be all. The normie “we need more tests” mantra needs to understand this.

B-I-N-G-O

[jsteele]

Anonymous wrote:Per VP Pence, states now have enough tests for phase one. Dr. Fauci explains that the fundamental problem with screening (not the antibody) testing is that a negative test today doesn’t mean a negative test tomorrow. Tests are clearly important but not the end all be all. The normie “we need more tests” mantra needs to understand this.

BTW, they say we have enough tests for Phase One, but Phase One hardly opens anything. Beyond testing, the other factor that I believe is important for re-opening in lieu of a vaccine is the utilization of PPE. There doesn't appear to be a requirement for employers to provide that.

[Anonymous]

jsteele wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Per VP Pence, states now have enough tests for phase one. Dr. Fauci explains that the fundamental problem with screening (not the antibody) testing is that a negative test today doesn’t mean a negative test tomorrow. Tests are clearly important but not the end all be all. The normie “we need more tests” mantra needs to understand this.

BTW, they say we have enough tests for Phase One, but Phase One hardly opens anything. Beyond testing, the other factor that I believe is important for re-opening in lieu of a vaccine is the utilization of PPE. There doesn't appear to be a requirement for employers to provide that.

only 4 states open in early may