Please explain pros of Brexit to me

Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:It's a matter of great grief for London's middle upper class. Latvian nannies, Polish housekeepers, Czech masseuses and manicurists...it was pretty much impossible to get good beauty care in London twenty years ago. Eastern European labor is behind London's improved grooming standards.


Haha! Although seriously, what will happen to those folks? Will they be godfathered in? Or will a lot of Britsh workers need to learn a new trade to replace them?


Grandfathered in. Not godfathered in.
Anonymous
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Anonymous wrote:I'm seeing a lot of correlations between this and our own countries politics: the populist desire to not get involved with other countries and to take severe stands on immigration. I can also see a stark similarity between Boris Johnson and Donald Trump - hell, they even look alike. Could you picture these two at a G8 summit?


Well, with Cameron's resignation, Boris Johnson is highly likely to be at a G8 summit. And if the populist movement that got Great Britain out of the EU and "shocked" the nation's intelligentsia carries into the US in November, Donald Trump will likely be there as well. The high school class presidents may no longer control the world.


Fortunately, we can still stop Trump.


I'm pretty certain he will lose in a landslide.


Not a Trump supporter, but IMHO anyone who says this is completely out of touch with America outside the Beltway (and the other big cities).

You have no idea how popular he is and how much his message resonates with most Americans.


I agree to an extent, although I'm not sure it's "most" Americans. A very vocal, passionate segment of the population, definitely.


I think the Brexit vote shows the people you're describing may be more numerous and influential than was believed by the pundits.


The polls were right, were they not? David Cameron is an idiot for ever calling for this referendum.

Supporters of Leave predominantly old, rural and undereducated. Supporters of remain young educated and urban. Once again the young are paying for the bad judgment of the baby boomer generation.

So, in other words, you think that pain inflicted on some parts of the populace should mean more than pain inflicted on others?

If EU was good for Brits, why would they want to leave?


You're on the right track. The Young, urban and/or elite simply refuse to grasp that these economic agreements (whether in the form of the EU or NAFTA or liberal immigration policies) are generally bad for the lower and working classes of wealthier countries while good for the young, urban and elite. Is it really any shock that any class of people reject what turns out to be a bad deal for them? Ascribing this to ignorance or lack of education on the part of leave voters is just elitism.


I agree. Brexit it is bad for the elites, good for working class.
The minimum wage in the UK is over 10 dollars an hour. In Poland it is less than 3 dollars an hour. In Romania and Bulgaria it is less than 2 dollars an hour. Poland has 38 million people and 850,000 poles now live in Britain. Many of the skilled trades like plumbers and carpenters have been taken over by Polish and other Eastern European workers willing to work for less than British workers. The working class is voting for Brexit because they can no longer have a middle class life. DH has cousins who live in Britain and they aren't against Syrian refugees or Indian migrants, they are against white Polish workers undercutting their wages and their kids crowding their schools, hospitals, and public housing.


Guess what? After Brexit, their economic condition is only going to get worse. The British economy is going to slump and globalization isn't going to go away. They can't turn back time. In fact, inside of just hiring a mix of polish and british workers, the companies will just move to Poland, or some place with reliably cheap labor instead.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:There is no reason to believe they can survive on their own without being a member of the EU.

The UK economy will soon devolve into conditions even worse than Venezuela. They are an island after all.


yeah sort of like how Japan devolved into another Venezuela without the EU to protect them


If the UK economy became like Japan's economy, no one would be declaring victory.


Japan's GDP is over 1T higher than the UK, and unemployment is about 1.5% less. I think there would be a victory celebration if that happened in GB.
Anonymous
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Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:I'm seeing a lot of correlations between this and our own countries politics: the populist desire to not get involved with other countries and to take severe stands on immigration. I can also see a stark similarity between Boris Johnson and Donald Trump - hell, they even look alike. Could you picture these two at a G8 summit?


Well, with Cameron's resignation, Boris Johnson is highly likely to be at a G8 summit. And if the populist movement that got Great Britain out of the EU and "shocked" the nation's intelligentsia carries into the US in November, Donald Trump will likely be there as well. The high school class presidents may no longer control the world.


Fortunately, we can still stop Trump.


I'm pretty certain he will lose in a landslide.


Not a Trump supporter, but IMHO anyone who says this is completely out of touch with America outside the Beltway (and the other big cities).

You have no idea how popular he is and how much his message resonates with most Americans.


I agree to an extent, although I'm not sure it's "most" Americans. A very vocal, passionate segment of the population, definitely.


I think the Brexit vote shows the people you're describing may be more numerous and influential than was believed by the pundits.


The polls were right, were they not? David Cameron is an idiot for ever calling for this referendum.

Supporters of Leave predominantly old, rural and undereducated. Supporters of remain young educated and urban. Once again the young are paying for the bad judgment of the baby boomer generation.

So, in other words, you think that pain inflicted on some parts of the populace should mean more than pain inflicted on others?

If EU was good for Brits, why would they want to leave?


You're on the right track. The Young, urban and/or elite simply refuse to grasp that these economic agreements (whether in the form of the EU or NAFTA or liberal immigration policies) are generally bad for the lower and working classes of wealthier countries while good for the young, urban and elite. Is it really any shock that any class of people reject what turns out to be a bad deal for them? Ascribing this to ignorance or lack of education on the part of leave voters is just elitism.


I agree. Brexit it is bad for the elites, good for working class.
The minimum wage in the UK is over 10 dollars an hour. In Poland it is less than 3 dollars an hour. In Romania and Bulgaria it is less than 2 dollars an hour. Poland has 38 million people and 850,000 poles now live in Britain. Many of the skilled trades like plumbers and carpenters have been taken over by Polish and other Eastern European workers willing to work for less than British workers. The working class is voting for Brexit because they can no longer have a middle class life. DH has cousins who live in Britain and they aren't against Syrian refugees or Indian migrants, they are against white Polish workers undercutting their wages and their kids crowding their schools, hospitals, and public housing.


That's understandable. Have there been proposals to increase the minimum wage?
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Haha, the elites of dcum just can't accept that the unwashed masses of UK (or US) could possibly understand what is in their own interests. No, no - they need an elite bureaucracy like Brussels or DC to rule over them!


The track record of the "guns and religion" crowd in the US for voting in their own economic self interest isn't great. The citizens of the UK voted for austerity in the wake of the global banking collapse, that didn't go well either. Those folks called economists generally do know what they are talking about.


Which economists? Milton Friedman? Arthur Laffer? Ben Bernanke? You do know, right, that economists come in all sorts of political shapes and sizes? Or maybe you didn't.


From the Economist;

The priority for the rest of the EU will be to make sure that nobody follows Britain’s example. That precludes giving Britain a good deal. Leavers have retorted that, because Britain imports more from the EU than it sells to it, the other countries must offer a generous free-trade deal. But this betrays a misunderstanding of both EU politics and trade talks. The EU cannot let Britain have full access to the single market without its obligations lest others ask for similar treatment. And Germany cannot offer Britain anything on its own, however strongly its carmakers push for it. Any deal must be approved by all 27 countries, several of which do little trade with Britain. Spanish carmakers might like tariffs on cars traded between Britain and Germany. Romania sees little gain in a free-trade deal that lets Britain block immigration.

In practice the EU will offer Britain only two possible deals. The first is to join Norway in the European Economic Area. This would preserve full access to the single market. But, like Norway, Britain would have to make a hefty contribution to the EU budget (Norway pays about 85% as much as Britain per head), observe all EU single-market regulations with no say in making them and, crucially, accept free movement of people from the EU. It is hard to imagine a post-Brexit government accepting this. The second is a free-trade deal like the EU’s with Canada. Yet this does not cover all trade, does not eliminate non-tariff barriers, excludes most financial services and could take years to agree.

The other option for Britain is to revert to trading with the EU as America, China and India do, under normal World Trade Organisation rules. But most economists say this would make the economic damage from Brexit worse. It would bring back mutual tariffs on cars, pharmaceuticals, food and fish. It would reinstate many non-tariff barriers. And it would exclude most services, including financial services.

The economic and trade problems arising from Brexit will dominate British politics for years to come. Security and foreign-policy concerns will also emerge. The home secretary, the security services and the police may try to replicate the co-ordinating measures that they have in place now with the rest of the EU, notably on intelligence-sharing. The Foreign Office may try to maintain its input into the EU’s foreign-policy discussions. But none of this will be easy and some may be impossible.

There will also be questions over the future of the United Kingdom. Both Scotland and Northern Ireland voted by clear majorities to remain in the EU, only to be overruled by the English and Welsh. Before the vote Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party, said Brexit might justify a second referendum on Scottish independence, though she is likely to proceed with caution. Northern Ireland will be more immediately troubled. If Britain ends free movement of people, that may require the return of a hard border between Northern Ireland and its southern neighbour.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:^ They voted against their own economic interests, but I think they knew that. Other issues were deemed more important to them.


Or not.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/06/24/the-british-are-frantically-googling-what-the-eu-is-hours-after-voting-to-leave-it/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_switch-google-1145a-top%3Ahomepage%2Fstory
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:There is no reason to believe they can survive on their own without being a member of the EU.

The UK economy will soon devolve into conditions even worse than Venezuela. They are an island after all.


yeah sort of like how Japan devolved into another Venezuela without the EU to protect them


If the UK economy became like Japan's economy, no one would be declaring victory.


Japan's GDP is over 1T higher than the UK, and unemployment is about 1.5% less. I think there would be a victory celebration if that happened in GB.


And growth is zero and has been for about a decade.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:The only two major politicians to support Brexit outside of the U.K. were Trump (once it was explained to him) and Putin. Putin's reasons were obvious - he wants to weaken the European Union.


Switzerland and Norway did not join the EU. Are they bad too?


I was just reading about the trade agreement Norway has with the EU. I highly doubt the Brits will agree to terms like that.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:^ They voted against their own economic interests, but I think they knew that. Other issues were deemed more important to them.


Or not.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/06/24/the-british-are-frantically-googling-what-the-eu-is-hours-after-voting-to-leave-it/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_switch-google-1145a-top%3Ahomepage%2Fstory


Not pp, but for those too lazy to click, article says that goggle trends showing most popular search in Great Britian TODAY is "what is the EU". Apparently, large number of people had no clue what they were voting to do.
Anonymous
Maybe it's school kids doing research?

Maybe it's people who already know much about the EU but wanting to find more information about the requirements for withdrawal?

Maybe it was primarily from those who didn't vote (the remaining 28% who didn't turn out).

There are many reasons why people may be doing google search with those terms.

I wouldn't be surprised if the top google search on election day this November will relate to what is the presidency, what is the election and so forth.

Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:^ They voted against their own economic interests, but I think they knew that. Other issues were deemed more important to them.


Or not.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/06/24/the-british-are-frantically-googling-what-the-eu-is-hours-after-voting-to-leave-it/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_switch-google-1145a-top%3Ahomepage%2Fstory


Not pp, but for those too lazy to click, article says that goggle trends showing most popular search in Great Britian TODAY is "what is the EU". Apparently, large number of people had no clue what they were voting to do.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
British goods will get more expensive for those in EU, blow to Uk economy.

Banks have already said they are moving jobs to within EU, blow to London's status as banking capital.

It's going to be ugly.

London was a banking capital well before UK's membership in the EU. It will survive. The country's ultimate desirability for outside capital is related to its stability, not its membership in whatever.


Well, what was the case before the EU existed is hardly relevant. Every major bank has said they intend to move hundreds of employees out of London to a location in the EU. Perhaps you know better than them what their business plans are.

What they said and what they will do is two different stories. Touch base in a year and see if anything changed.


+1 It's doubtful that any company will get better tax breaks in the EU. I work for a large multi-national that owns a bank in London. Our execs were quietly rooting for Brexit. Today they are cheering.

There's a reason that the EU has never had a Facebook or Google emerge, and it's not because they aren't as innovative as Americans.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:I'm seeing a lot of correlations between this and our own countries politics: the populist desire to not get involved with other countries and to take severe stands on immigration. I can also see a stark similarity between Boris Johnson and Donald Trump - hell, they even look alike. Could you picture these two at a G8 summit?


Well, with Cameron's resignation, Boris Johnson is highly likely to be at a G8 summit. And if the populist movement that got Great Britain out of the EU and "shocked" the nation's intelligentsia carries into the US in November, Donald Trump will likely be there as well. The high school class presidents may no longer control the world.


Fortunately, we can still stop Trump.


I'm pretty certain he will lose in a landslide.


Not a Trump supporter, but IMHO anyone who says this is completely out of touch with America outside the Beltway (and the other big cities).

You have no idea how popular he is and how much his message resonates with most Americans.


I agree to an extent, although I'm not sure it's "most" Americans. A very vocal, passionate segment of the population, definitely.


I think the Brexit vote shows the people you're describing may be more numerous and influential than was believed by the pundits.


The polls were right, were they not? David Cameron is an idiot for ever calling for this referendum.

Supporters of Leave predominantly old, rural and undereducated. Supporters of remain young educated and urban. Once again the young are paying for the bad judgment of the baby boomer generation.

So, in other words, you think that pain inflicted on some parts of the populace should mean more than pain inflicted on others?

If EU was good for Brits, why would they want to leave?


You're on the right track. The Young, urban and/or elite simply refuse to grasp that these economic agreements (whether in the form of the EU or NAFTA or liberal immigration policies) are generally bad for the lower and working classes of wealthier countries while good for the young, urban and elite. Is it really any shock that any class of people reject what turns out to be a bad deal for them? Ascribing this to ignorance or lack of education on the part of leave voters is just elitism.


I agree. Brexit it is bad for the elites, good for working class.
The minimum wage in the UK is over 10 dollars an hour. In Poland it is less than 3 dollars an hour. In Romania and Bulgaria it is less than 2 dollars an hour. Poland has 38 million people and 850,000 poles now live in Britain. Many of the skilled trades like plumbers and carpenters have been taken over by Polish and other Eastern European workers willing to work for less than British workers. The working class is voting for Brexit because they can no longer have a middle class life. DH has cousins who live in Britain and they aren't against Syrian refugees or Indian migrants, they are against white Polish workers undercutting their wages and their kids crowding their schools, hospitals, and public housing.


Guess what? After Brexit, their economic condition is only going to get worse. The British economy is going to slump and globalization isn't going to go away. They can't turn back time. In fact, inside of just hiring a mix of polish and british workers, the companies will just move to Poland, or some place with reliably cheap labor instead.


What? When a Brit needs a plumber or carpenter they are going to call a company that moved to Poland? There are plenty of middle class jobs that have to done in Britain. These include skilled trade jobs like electrician, carpenter, plumber, nurse. These jobs traditionally have allowed a worker to have a middle class life. Hundreds of thousands of Eastern Europeans have moved to Britain to do these jobs.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
British goods will get more expensive for those in EU, blow to Uk economy.

Banks have already said they are moving jobs to within EU, blow to London's status as banking capital.

It's going to be ugly.

London was a banking capital well before UK's membership in the EU. It will survive. The country's ultimate desirability for outside capital is related to its stability, not its membership in whatever.


Well, what was the case before the EU existed is hardly relevant. Every major bank has said they intend to move hundreds of employees out of London to a location in the EU. Perhaps you know better than them what their business plans are.

What they said and what they will do is two different stories. Touch base in a year and see if anything changed.


+1 It's doubtful that any company will get better tax breaks in the EU. I work for a large multi-national that owns a bank in London. Our execs were quietly rooting for Brexit. Today they are cheering.

There's a reason that the EU has never had a Facebook or Google emerge, and it's not because they aren't as innovative as Americans.


The lack of innovation is due more to socialism than anything else, not the EU, which has to do mostly with tariffs.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:

+1 It's doubtful that any company will get better tax breaks in the EU. I work for a large multi-national that owns a bank in London. Our execs were quietly rooting for Brexit. Today they are cheering.

There's a reason that the EU has never had a Facebook or Google emerge, and it's not because they aren't as innovative as Americans.


I don't think tax breaks are the reason that banks are talking about moving jobs to the EU. It's about being able to sell their banking products in the EU. A lot will depend on the market access the UK is able to negotiate...but that will not be a fast process. This blogpost (that includes clips from FT and WSJ) provides some context:

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/06/brexit-the-crisis-begins.html
Anonymous
More than any other factor, globalization has contributed to income inequality all over the west. Even assuming the average Brit's economic condition does not improve after Brexit, income inequality will almost certainly be reduced.

Is that not an end game for many on the left?
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