College Football--Big Ten Expansion

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think UNC is the school that is the most coveted by both the SEC and BIG10.

As an ACC fan I hope they make a play to bring in Notre Dame (as full time member) and two of its traditional rivals (Stanford and Navy) at the same time as a package deal.

Fingers crossed.

Almost all analysts agree that the SEC wants Clemson & FSU from the ACC and,maybe, Miami.

It depends on the analysts that you're talking about. The sports analysts, especially former players, agree. The analysts who write about sports business are less sure. Clemson shares a market with South Carolina and has a football team that has been good for all of 5 minutes. FSU is a declining program in geographic proximity to Florida. If the SEC wants another Florida school, and that's a big if, Miami makes much more sense. People look at the SEC and see two teams in Mississippi and two teams in Alabama and think that's the norm, but those schools are charter members. The only time they have let in a school in the same state as a member is Texas. Letting in Clemson gives a local rival a life line- which do people think is more likely, that South Carolina and Georgia bail Clemson out of a terrible ACC deal or that they let them wither? I think NC State and Virginia Tech make much more sense that Clemson because the expand the League's footprint and add additional markets while still keeping the league southern

It is the tv networks driving the bus on expansion. It is also becoming less about geographic footprint and more about streaming numbers. Here are the top 15 teams in terms streaming from last year:

Ohio State — 5.80M
Alabama — 5.11M
Michigan — 4.37M
Tennessee — 4.13M
Georgia — 3.50M
Notre Dame — 3.30M
LSU — 3.22M
Texas — 3.06M
Penn State — 3.05M
Clemson — 2.59M
Florida — 2.57M
Oregon — 2.21M
TCU — 2.20M
Southern Cal — 2.07M
Florida State — 2.03 M

The BIG or SEC are going to want FSU and Clemson well before NC State or VA TECH.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think UNC is the school that is the most coveted by both the SEC and BIG10.

As an ACC fan I hope they make a play to bring in Notre Dame (as full time member) and two of its traditional rivals (Stanford and Navy) at the same time as a package deal.

Fingers crossed.

Almost all analysts agree that the SEC wants Clemson & FSU from the ACC and,maybe, Miami.

It depends on the analysts that you're talking about. The sports analysts, especially former players, agree. The analysts who write about sports business are less sure. Clemson shares a market with South Carolina and has a football team that has been good for all of 5 minutes. FSU is a declining program in geographic proximity to Florida. If the SEC wants another Florida school, and that's a big if, Miami makes much more sense. People look at the SEC and see two teams in Mississippi and two teams in Alabama and think that's the norm, but those schools are charter members. The only time they have let in a school in the same state as a member is Texas. Letting in Clemson gives a local rival a life line- which do people think is more likely, that South Carolina and Georgia bail Clemson out of a terrible ACC deal or that they let them wither? I think NC State and Virginia Tech make much more sense that Clemson because the expand the League's footprint and add additional markets while still keeping the league southern

It is the tv networks driving the bus on expansion. It is also becoming less about geographic footprint and more about streaming numbers. Here are the top 15 teams in terms streaming from last year:

Ohio State — 5.80M
Alabama — 5.11M
Michigan — 4.37M
Tennessee — 4.13M
Georgia — 3.50M
Notre Dame — 3.30M
LSU — 3.22M
Texas — 3.06M
Penn State — 3.05M
Clemson — 2.59M
Florida — 2.57M
Oregon — 2.21M
TCU — 2.20M
Southern Cal — 2.07M
Florida State — 2.03 M

The BIG or SEC are going to want FSU and Clemson well before NC State or VA TECH.

(OP here)

Agree. Thank you for posting this information !

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Big Ten only has 7 ice hockey teams (Michigan, Mich State, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin, & Minnesota) and needs an 8th team. Cornell would be a great addition athletically for several sports including ice hockey & wrestling.

Or they could add AZ State for hockey and wrestling.

(OP here)

Interesting observation. And, of course, for football as well and all other sports.

The Big Ten loves AAU member schools and ASU is a member of the AAU.

https://aau.edu/who-we-are/our-members/

Nebraska lost their AAU membership.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think UNC is the school that is the most coveted by both the SEC and BIG10.

As an ACC fan I hope they make a play to bring in Notre Dame (as full time member) and two of its traditional rivals (Stanford and Navy) at the same time as a package deal.

Fingers crossed.

Almost all analysts agree that the SEC wants Clemson & FSU from the ACC and,maybe, Miami.

It depends on the analysts that you're talking about. The sports analysts, especially former players, agree. The analysts who write about sports business are less sure. Clemson shares a market with South Carolina and has a football team that has been good for all of 5 minutes. FSU is a declining program in geographic proximity to Florida. If the SEC wants another Florida school, and that's a big if, Miami makes much more sense. People look at the SEC and see two teams in Mississippi and two teams in Alabama and think that's the norm, but those schools are charter members. The only time they have let in a school in the same state as a member is Texas. Letting in Clemson gives a local rival a life line- which do people think is more likely, that South Carolina and Georgia bail Clemson out of a terrible ACC deal or that they let them wither? I think NC State and Virginia Tech make much more sense that Clemson because the expand the League's footprint and add additional markets while still keeping the league southern

It is the tv networks driving the bus on expansion. It is also becoming less about geographic footprint and more about streaming numbers. Here are the top 15 teams in terms streaming from last year:

Ohio State — 5.80M
Alabama — 5.11M
Michigan — 4.37M
Tennessee — 4.13M
Georgia — 3.50M
Notre Dame — 3.30M
LSU — 3.22M
Texas — 3.06M
Penn State — 3.05M
Clemson — 2.59M
Florida — 2.57M
Oregon — 2.21M
TCU — 2.20M
Southern Cal — 2.07M
Florida State — 2.03 M

The BIG or SEC are going to want FSU and Clemson well before NC State or VA TECH.

Neither FSU nor Clemson are academic fits for the B1G.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Big Ten only has 7 ice hockey teams (Michigan, Mich State, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin, & Minnesota) and needs an 8th team. Cornell would be a great addition athletically for several sports including ice hockey & wrestling.

Or they could add AZ State for hockey and wrestling.

(OP here)

Interesting observation. And, of course, for football as well and all other sports.

The Big Ten loves AAU member schools and ASU is a member of the AAU.

https://aau.edu/who-we-are/our-members/

Nebraska lost their AAU membership.

They lost it because the relationship to the medical school changed after they were admitted to the big10.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Big Ten only has 7 ice hockey teams (Michigan, Mich State, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin, & Minnesota) and needs an 8th team. Cornell would be a great addition athletically for several sports including ice hockey & wrestling.

Or they could add AZ State for hockey and wrestling.

(OP here)

Interesting observation. And, of course, for football as well and all other sports.

The Big Ten loves AAU member schools and ASU is a member of the AAU.

https://aau.edu/who-we-are/our-members/

Nebraska lost their AAU membership.

ASU has almost no chance of joining the Big Ten. If anything, they'll end up in the Big 12.

[Anonymous]

Now that it really is all about the money, does anyone see these conferences actually voting schools out? Purdue, for example, brings very little value in streaming, footprint, or market coverage.

[Anonymous]

My Michigan student is gleefully awaiting UCLA and USC because he says it will be a show watching them play against corn-fed men who don't don't even register that it's snowing.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:According to various news sources, many ACC teams have investigated exit options from that league in order to join the SEC or the Big Ten. Teams most interested in exiting the ACC are rumored to be Clemson, FSU, & the University of Miami.

The Big Ten has big eyes on Georgia Tech in order to get into the Atlanta area market.

The ACC contract exit penalties are too high. The ACC will have to dissolve before teams can afford to leave the conference.

The ACC teams gave their TV rights to the league through 2036. Unless they find a way to get them back, they aren't going anywhere. Clemson needs to exit while they still can, but the only expansion round where they SEC added another school in a state with an SEC school was Texas, and SC is not as big as Texas and Clemson does not generate the revenue that Texas does. They aren't a math for the Big10 academically and their TV market isn't worth the headache. I would expect the Big10 to go for Miami, UVA, UNC, and GT and the SEC to grab VT and NC State if the conference dissolves

This is outdated thinking.

TV is shifting to streaming and ND, Clemson, Oregon, TCU and FSU (In that order) are the only teams in the top 25 not in the SEC or BIG.

In terms of academics, ND is clearly a great school. But FSU and Clemson both have lower acceptance rates (i.e., more competitive to get into) than Ohio State, Ill, Wisc, Rutgers, Purdue, Minn, Nebr, Mich St, Indiana, PSU, and Iowa. TCU would be middle of the pack. Oregon's acceptance rate is much higher than those 4 schools.

Ga Tech is great school but the athletic department is a disaster.

https://www.postandcourier.com/greenville/clemson-news/clemson-received-record-applications-fewer-are-getting-in-this-fall/article_be598cba-ce5b-11ed-a594-2f61ca61663e.html

https://news.fsu.edu/news/students-campus-life/2023/02/15/fsu-admits-stellar-incoming-class-as-academic-reputation-continues-to-rise/

https://www.fromtherumbleseat.com/2022/10/27/23426754/engineering-a-program-the-main-bits

https://medium.com/run-it-back-with-zach/which-college-football-programs-were-the-most-watched-in-2022-94eca4f6acbd

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think UNC is the school that is the most coveted by both the SEC and BIG10.

As an ACC fan I hope they make a play to bring in Notre Dame (as full time member) and two of its traditional rivals (Stanford and Navy) at the same time as a package deal.

Fingers crossed.

Almost all analysts agree that the SEC wants Clemson & FSU from the ACC and,maybe, Miami.

It depends on the analysts that you're talking about. The sports analysts, especially former players, agree. The analysts who write about sports business are less sure. Clemson shares a market with South Carolina and has a football team that has been good for all of 5 minutes. FSU is a declining program in geographic proximity to Florida. If the SEC wants another Florida school, and that's a big if, Miami makes much more sense. People look at the SEC and see two teams in Mississippi and two teams in Alabama and think that's the norm, but those schools are charter members. The only time they have let in a school in the same state as a member is Texas. Letting in Clemson gives a local rival a life line- which do people think is more likely, that South Carolina and Georgia bail Clemson out of a terrible ACC deal or that they let them wither? I think NC State and Virginia Tech make much more sense that Clemson because the expand the League's footprint and add additional markets while still keeping the league southern

It is the tv networks driving the bus on expansion. It is also becoming less about geographic footprint and more about streaming numbers. Here are the top 15 teams in terms streaming from last year:

Ohio State — 5.80M
Alabama — 5.11M
Michigan — 4.37M
Tennessee — 4.13M
Georgia — 3.50M
Notre Dame — 3.30M
LSU — 3.22M
Texas — 3.06M
Penn State — 3.05M
Clemson — 2.59M
Florida — 2.57M
Oregon — 2.21M
TCU — 2.20M
Southern Cal — 2.07M
Florida State — 2.03 M

The BIG or SEC are going to want FSU and Clemson well before NC State or VA TECH.

Doesn't matter if the current member schools say no.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Now that it really is all about the money, does anyone see these conferences actually voting schools out? Purdue, for example, brings very little value in streaming, footprint, or market coverage.

Articles speculate that the SEC may want to boot Vanderbilt & Kentucky, but I do not know whether or not this is a reasonable possibility.

[Anonymous]

(OP here)

Even SEC football expert Paul Finebaum is predicting the collapse of the Pac-12 Conference.

The article linked below (article dated yesterday, July 4, 2023) states that the Big Ten is considering 5 teams from the Pac-12:

Oregon, Washington, Utah, Stanford, & UCal-Berkeley.

https://sportskeeda.com/college-football/is-pac-12-s-collapse-inevitable-big-ten-plans-expansion-top-suitors-include-oregon-stanford-utah-among-others

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think UNC is the school that is the most coveted by both the SEC and BIG10.

As an ACC fan I hope they make a play to bring in Notre Dame (as full time member) and two of its traditional rivals (Stanford and Navy) at the same time as a package deal.

Fingers crossed.

Almost all analysts agree that the SEC wants Clemson & FSU from the ACC and,maybe, Miami.

It depends on the analysts that you're talking about. The sports analysts, especially former players, agree. The analysts who write about sports business are less sure. Clemson shares a market with South Carolina and has a football team that has been good for all of 5 minutes. FSU is a declining program in geographic proximity to Florida. If the SEC wants another Florida school, and that's a big if, Miami makes much more sense. People look at the SEC and see two teams in Mississippi and two teams in Alabama and think that's the norm, but those schools are charter members. The only time they have let in a school in the same state as a member is Texas. Letting in Clemson gives a local rival a life line- which do people think is more likely, that South Carolina and Georgia bail Clemson out of a terrible ACC deal or that they let them wither? I think NC State and Virginia Tech make much more sense that Clemson because the expand the League's footprint and add additional markets while still keeping the league southern

It is the tv networks driving the bus on expansion. It is also becoming less about geographic footprint and more about streaming numbers. Here are the top 15 teams in terms streaming from last year:

Ohio State — 5.80M
Alabama — 5.11M
Michigan — 4.37M
Tennessee — 4.13M
Georgia — 3.50M
Notre Dame — 3.30M
LSU — 3.22M
Texas — 3.06M
Penn State — 3.05M
Clemson — 2.59M
Florida — 2.57M
Oregon — 2.21M
TCU — 2.20M
Southern Cal — 2.07M
Florida State — 2.03 M

The BIG or SEC are going to want FSU and Clemson well before NC State or VA TECH.

Clemson slips a little every year and will continue to slip as long as they are in the ACC. Dabo is going to have to leave if he wants to win and then Clemson will revert to being Clemson

[Anonymous]

For the streaming #s, you also have to account for the debacle that is the Pac 12 Network. To see USC and Oregon on this list at all is impressive! Those #s really don't tell the whole story.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:According to various news sources, many ACC teams have investigated exit options from that league in order to join the SEC or the Big Ten. Teams most interested in exiting the ACC are rumored to be Clemson, FSU, & the University of Miami.

The Big Ten has big eyes on Georgia Tech in order to get into the Atlanta area market.

The ACC contract exit penalties are too high. The ACC will have to dissolve before teams can afford to leave the conference.

The ACC teams gave their TV rights to the league through 2036. Unless they find a way to get them back, they aren't going anywhere. Clemson needs to exit while they still can, but the only expansion round where they SEC added another school in a state with an SEC school was Texas, and SC is not as big as Texas and Clemson does not generate the revenue that Texas does. They aren't a math for the Big10 academically and their TV market isn't worth the headache. I would expect the Big10 to go for Miami, UVA, UNC, and GT and the SEC to grab VT and NC State if the conference dissolves

This is outdated thinking.

TV is shifting to streaming and ND, Clemson, Oregon, TCU and FSU (In that order) are the only teams in the top 25 not in the SEC or BIG.

In terms of academics, ND is clearly a great school. But FSU and Clemson both have lower acceptance rates (i.e., more competitive to get into) than Ohio State, Ill, Wisc, Rutgers, Purdue, Minn, Nebr, Mich St, Indiana, PSU, and Iowa. TCU would be middle of the pack. Oregon's acceptance rate is much higher than those 4 schools.

Ga Tech is great school but the athletic department is a disaster.

https://www.postandcourier.com/greenville/clemson-news/clemson-received-record-applications-fewer-are-getting-in-this-fall/article_be598cba-ce5b-11ed-a594-2f61ca61663e.html

https://news.fsu.edu/news/students-campus-life/2023/02/15/fsu-admits-stellar-incoming-class-as-academic-reputation-continues-to-rise/

https://www.fromtherumbleseat.com/2022/10/27/23426754/engineering-a-program-the-main-bits

https://medium.com/run-it-back-with-zach/which-college-football-programs-were-the-most-watched-in-2022-94eca4f6acbd

(OP here)

Thank you for contributing the web links below. Great resources.