Real talk about the city’s economy, federal buildings leases, and telework impacts

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Let’s cut to the chase and talk about schools. DC bleeds its high earning and middle class families every year due to crappy schools.

Bleeds them to where? The public schools in Alexandra, Arlington, Fairfax, Montgomery, and Prince George's are all horrible too (according to DCUM). Loudoun has its own problems, obviously. So does Prince William. Is everyone moving to certain parts of Howard County?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Let’s cut to the chase and talk about schools. DC bleeds its high earning and middle class families every year due to crappy schools.

Bleeds them to where? The public schools in Alexandra, Arlington, Fairfax, Montgomery, and Prince George's are all horrible too (according to DCUM). Loudoun has its own problems, obviously. So does Prince William. Is everyone moving to certain parts of Howard County?

You don’t understand the difference between relative and absolute quality. On an objective basis, DCPS is one of the worst performing public school systems in the country which makes it even crazier that it spends the most per student of any state by a mile.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:A bunch of GS 12s getting lunch a few times a week wasn't propping up the economy. DC needs big law and lobbyists working in the office and spending money in the city

Just wait until the bike lanes are built on Connecticut Avenue and the 1000s of Montgomery County big law/lobbying partners are forced to take Metro or work from home more. That’ll be GREAT for the downtown economy.

Didn’t we just get a dissertation that working in offices is for dinosaurs and there is no one going back to the office?

Those people are dinosaurs who have come back to the office, most often by car. It stands to reason that if you make some place harder to get to by car then fewer people will drive there. Before I reduced car capacity I would want to be sure that bikes or transit would make up for less car travel. It doesn’t seem likely that it will in the next few years.

Exactly. Those of the senior partners who are trying to convince the junior associates to come in more often. If they make it hell for the bosses to get to the office then all is lost.

[Anonymous]

I still see plenty of ugly rush hour congestion in DC. That tells me there are still plenty of people coming downtown.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I still see plenty of ugly rush hour congestion in DC. That tells me there are still plenty of people coming downtown.

The data says otherwise. Offices are at 45% of pre-COVID occupancy. 20% commercial vacancy rate. Metro at 40% pre-COVID ridership.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I still see plenty of ugly rush hour congestion in DC. That tells me there are still plenty of people coming downtown.

The data says otherwise. Offices are at 45% of pre-COVID occupancy. 20% commercial vacancy rate. Metro at 40% pre-COVID ridership.

Both can be true. Plenty of people are still coming downtown by car. 20% commercial vacancy rate = 80% commercial non-vacancy rate.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I still see plenty of ugly rush hour congestion in DC. That tells me there are still plenty of people coming downtown.

The data says otherwise. Offices are at 45% of pre-COVID occupancy. 20% commercial vacancy rate. Metro at 40% pre-COVID ridership.

Both can be true. Plenty of people are still coming downtown by car. 20% commercial vacancy rate = 80% commercial non-vacancy rate.

Depends on your definition of “plenty”. I do appreciate looking on the bright side! LOL.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Let’s cut to the chase and talk about schools. DC bleeds its high earning and middle class families every year due to crappy schools.

Bleeds them to where? The public schools in Alexandra, Arlington, Fairfax, Montgomery, and Prince George's are all horrible too (according to DCUM). Loudoun has its own problems, obviously. So does Prince William. Is everyone moving to certain parts of Howard County?

What? No. DCPS is a national failure. Surrounding school districts have problems, but no where near to the same degree.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:DC has been pushing Federal agencies out of the city center into NE and SE, to areas where there are no restaurants or retail shops (and often, no transit nearby). While this was intended to gentrify those areas, in fact it just encouraged Feds to brown bag their lunch and to telework as much as possible even pre-covid.

Office space has also been massively overbuilt in the larger DMV area, for probably 10 years pre-covid. (Not converting those to in-person school spaces in 2020 was a huge missed opportunity.)

Feds may be a convenient scapegoat, but even if you could bring every DC-based Federal employee into the city every day it would not reverse these long-term issues.

I would only disagree with the statement that moving the Feds out into NE and SE was primarily to promote economic development. I think it was first and foremost about promoting developers, because these were the areas where large tracts of developable land could be acquired (although it does create a community benefit of putting an office building where a parking lot and tire shop used to be) and secondarily I believe they thought moving the dowdy Feds to the peripheral areas would free up downtown for more upscale development, like CityCenterDC.

100% this. I am a fed who used to work near CityCenter, who used to go out for lunch, coffee, happy hours. Our agency was pushed out to NE. Most recently, when in my office, I saw drug addicts/homeless people defectating on the sidewalk. In the middle of the day. I am not on of those people who clutches their pearls and is afraid to commute because of the crime. But come on! This is not okay!

When you roll over for the developers, why are you shocked when people are less eager to come into a city that is increasingly bland (in some parts of the city)?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:DC has been pushing Federal agencies out of the city center into NE and SE, to areas where there are no restaurants or retail shops (and often, no transit nearby). While this was intended to gentrify those areas, in fact it just encouraged Feds to brown bag their lunch and to telework as much as possible even pre-covid.

Office space has also been massively overbuilt in the larger DMV area, for probably 10 years pre-covid. (Not converting those to in-person school spaces in 2020 was a huge missed opportunity.)

Feds may be a convenient scapegoat, but even if you could bring every DC-based Federal employee into the city every day it would not reverse these long-term issues.

I would only disagree with the statement that moving the Feds out into NE and SE was primarily to promote economic development. I think it was first and foremost about promoting developers, because these were the areas where large tracts of developable land could be acquired (although it does create a community benefit of putting an office building where a parking lot and tire shop used to be) and secondarily I believe they thought moving the dowdy Feds to the peripheral areas would free up downtown for more upscale development, like CityCenterDC.

100% this. I am a fed who used to work near CityCenter, who used to go out for lunch, coffee, happy hours. Our agency was pushed out to NE. Most recently, when in my office, I saw drug addicts/homeless people defectating on the sidewalk. In the middle of the day. I am not on of those people who clutches their pearls and is afraid to commute because of the crime. But come on! This is not okay!

When you roll over for the developers, why are you shocked when people are less eager to come into a city that is increasingly bland (in some parts of the city)?

DC seems to be all things to all people. Too expensive, too many poor people, too much traffic, too empty, too business-unfriendly, too cozy with developers, too crowded, too vacant, too bland, too weird,...

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:DC has been pushing Federal agencies out of the city center into NE and SE, to areas where there are no restaurants or retail shops (and often, no transit nearby). While this was intended to gentrify those areas, in fact it just encouraged Feds to brown bag their lunch and to telework as much as possible even pre-covid.

Office space has also been massively overbuilt in the larger DMV area, for probably 10 years pre-covid. (Not converting those to in-person school spaces in 2020 was a huge missed opportunity.)

Feds may be a convenient scapegoat, but even if you could bring every DC-based Federal employee into the city every day it would not reverse these long-term issues.

I would only disagree with the statement that moving the Feds out into NE and SE was primarily to promote economic development. I think it was first and foremost about promoting developers, because these were the areas where large tracts of developable land could be acquired (although it does create a community benefit of putting an office building where a parking lot and tire shop used to be) and secondarily I believe they thought moving the dowdy Feds to the peripheral areas would free up downtown for more upscale development, like CityCenterDC.

100% this. I am a fed who used to work near CityCenter, who used to go out for lunch, coffee, happy hours. Our agency was pushed out to NE. Most recently, when in my office, I saw drug addicts/homeless people defectating on the sidewalk. In the middle of the day. I am not on of those people who clutches their pearls and is afraid to commute because of the crime. But come on! This is not okay!

When you roll over for the developers, why are you shocked when people are less eager to come into a city that is increasingly bland (in some parts of the city)?

DC seems to be all things to all people. Too expensive, too many poor people, too much traffic, too empty, too business-unfriendly, too cozy with developers, too crowded, too vacant, too bland, too weird,...

I have never heard anyone say that it was “too weird”, except perhaps “weird” in the sense that it is a magnet for HS government types.

Regardless, I am not sure how these things you list are mutually exclusive.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Does the mayor honestly believe that these folks are coming back? They left to go start families in the suburbs and mid-sized metros. Building 15k micro apartments downtown is not going to convince these people to return. Three bedroom apartments on Capitol Hill might, but they just spent the last decade building nothing but studios and 1-BDs. Just goes to show the risks of designing your economic strategy around a demographic cohort. When the trends turn against you, your economy is in serious trouble.

It’s hard not to see DC in real trouble looking at these numbers. Unless DC can create thousands more 3-4 bedroom houses with yards, it’s not clear how the city meets this population goal. Throw in fear of crime, schools, fiscal issues and downtown revitalization on top of everything else and it’s difficult to feel positive about the near term unless big changes are made.

[Anonymous]

California now has a confirmed fiscal deficit.
https://www.dcnewsnow.com/news/us-and-world/ap-us-news/ap-california-faces-budget-deficit-of-22-5b-governor-says/amp/

New York is heading for a “fiscal cliff”.
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/09/20/business/nyc-fiscal-cliff/index.html

The question has to be how much longer until DC joins them.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Let’s cut to the chase and talk about schools. DC bleeds its high earning and middle class families every year due to crappy schools.

Bleeds them to where? The public schools in Alexandra, Arlington, Fairfax, Montgomery, and Prince George's are all horrible too (according to DCUM). Loudoun has its own problems, obviously. So does Prince William. Is everyone moving to certain parts of Howard County?

Arlington, Fairfax, and MoCo all have pyramids better than anything in DC for residents who can afford to live in Great Falls, North Arlington, or Bethesda. For people who can't afford to live in those pyramids, the public school options are far better than they'd get with a comparably priced home in DC.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This isn't an issue unique to DC. Every city now has more teleworking folks than before. The issue is that DC has terrible traffic, terrible crime, terrible public transportation, and a terrible homeless problem, so lots of people have no desire to come into DC unless forced to do so for work reasons.

Show me the city where this isn't a problem. Which city exactly doesn't have increased homeless problem, emptying office buildings and increase in crime?