Crime in MoCo. Real answers

[Anonymous]

I’m interested in a real, evidence-based take on what is contributing to crime getting so out of control in upscale places like Montgomery County. And yes; say what you want, broadly speaking the county is upscale. I always felt safe myself, yes in Silver Spring, Gaithersburg, and Wheaton. But I’ve never been in the wrong place at the wrong time.

People like to pin everything on Elrich because they don’t like him for other reasons, but im not sure where you connect the dots. I have seen more police presence while out and about, not less, and IIRC Elrich got a lot of pushback from the far left about being too pro-cop. So I don’t think “Marc Elrich” is the catch-all reason.

But, what is? Are cops in the wrong places or just bad at their jobs? Is it unemployment? Gangs? Something to do with policy over the border in DC? High school drop out rates? Mental health? Any takes with some actual statistics?

[Anonymous]

Listen to what the council members say, propose, and pass.

They basically want to legalize a certain threshold of crime. No consequences and no punishments for anything. Basically, residents just have to get used to higher baseline of crime, like how people are used to in Baltimore.

Humans are very simple idiots. When there are no consequences for anything, what do you think people do? They take more and push the boundaries further. If no one enforces speeding and no one has to fear of paying fines for speeding, what will drivers do? They'll speed more, which is why so many people drive aggressively now at 90+ mph everyday. Same with crime. No time means do the crime.

[Anonymous]

The fact you said Elrich is pro cop tells me you have no idea what you’re talking about.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The fact you said Elrich is pro cop tells me you have no idea what you’re talking about.

I did not say Elrich was pro-cop or anti-cop. I’m saying the far left, like SSJC, DSA and all those kind of people considered Elrich to be pro-cop and therefore didn’t endorse him and some actually preferred Riemer. I don’t know where Elrich even is on the pro-cop/anti-cop spectrum, but he isn’t at the far left end of anti-cop.

[Anonymous]

I live in east county and I've seen more police out in the past couple of years, thankfully.

I think it's a combination of things:

Residents who never seem to bother to lock their cars, doors, or windows. Our neighbors are like this and I just don't get it, but I moved from an area with higher crime than MoCo.

I do think MoCo has allowed retail property owners to get away with a lot, especially east of Georgia. I'm not talking about the actual small business owners, but the owners of the strip malls and such who take the profits but don't hardly invest anything in the property. I'm looking at you, owners of Glenmont shopping center. The MoCo police have been making some high profile busts there, there are some decent retailers, but the actual strip mall itself is beaten to death, has a huge unused parking lot, and lots of spaces people up to no good can hang out 24/7.

The MoCo police have done a good job of cracking down on crime in some local lower income apartments, and in the Glenmont shopping center parking lot.

Think there are too many kids running wild after dark, whose parents are at work or who don't care, and too many people who think it's easy pickings in MoCo.

[Anonymous]

Look up how NYC became safer in the 90s

[Anonymous]

What is happening is that it is mostly DC residents realizing that Moco is a soft target with the added advantage that Moco police are not allowed to pursue suspects back into DC.

[Anonymous]

I have no idea and would like the answer to this myself. Places that used to be crime free is now places for bad behavior. See the stabbing at the Rio by teenage girls.

I wonder how much drugs are contributing to this.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:What is happening is that it is mostly DC residents realizing that Moco is a soft target with the added advantage that Moco police are not allowed to pursue suspects back into DC.

Can you elaborate?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What is happening is that it is mostly DC residents realizing that Moco is a soft target with the added advantage that Moco police are not allowed to pursue suspects back into DC.

Can you elaborate?[/quote

Different pp, but people.here leave their homes and cars unlocked, and aren't vigilant when they are out because they haven't had to be before.

And it seems like most of these juveniles are just released to their parents to go back and reoffend again.

[Anonymous]

criminologist here.

Certain types of violent crime, like shootings, robberies (including carjackings), aggravated assaults have increased.

There are a variety of reasons, and it takes years to truly figure out underlying causes.

The best guesses right now are:
1) historic increase in the number of firearms on the streets. Purchases went through the roof during COVID and they get stolen faster, and therefore often used for crime more quickly, than in years past. The theory is a lot of first time firearms owners out there never secured guns properly. Many get stolen out of cars.
2) More relaxed policing since George Floyd. Many policies favor suspects in an effort to not overcriminalize people of color. Laudible, but most victims of violent crime are also people of color, and they are now getting victimized more. There is a happy medium. We have not hit it yet.
3) Fewer police on the streets. A huge portion of police were hired in the 90s when crime was at its height and they have reached retirement eligibility. If a jurisdiction doesn't make it desirable to stay, they are retiring and often moving to other more desirable jurisdictions.
4) Tons of mandated police reform changes in Maryland, including a significant weakening of juvenile justice laws, has overtaxed police departments. If they can't question juveniles about a gun store robbery, because the new state law requires that juveniles consult with attorneys before talking to police, those stolen guns just stay on the streets. If new use of force laws make it more difficult to take someone into custody and officers risk getting hurt more often, they sometimes don't follow through on the arrest, and the perpetrator is left on the streets.
5) Bleed-over of crime from DC mostly, and to some extent Prince George's County. A large portion of arrests are of people who live outside the county.

If you have seen more police presence, I assume you are talking about Silver Spring. I don't think any of the rest of the county has increased presence with 130 officers down, and many officers rejecting overtime opportunities. All the municipal police departments are understaffed too.

What is Elrich's role? He is in charge of the Executive branch, so he's ultimately responsible for all successes and all failures. He has "not" supported police during his first term. I think his tune is changing though. George Floyd's murder coincided with an extended period of very low crime. And it was easy to just see police as the biggest problem out there, and treat them as such. And many policy makers have no clue how much the presence of well-trained police officers helps keep communities safe. You need to make sure they are well trained, and act honestly and safely, and they need to be held accountable for any wrongs they do. But they have to be there. I think progressive policy makers are starting to realize that.

[Anonymous]

^^ wow this is really insightful. Tough pills to swallow for progressives and I am a progressive.

[Anonymous]

One thing though about police reform and progressive and “woke” policies is that (and I have no evidence of this and it’s completely my speculation) I think crime increasing is less directly in response to it, knowing the education level of most average criminals, are they really watching or reading the news? I hardly think that a gang or any random 20 year old, unemployed or underemployed poorly educated male is sitting here reading the Washington Post thinking, oh, Elrich and Jawando and Mink are elected? They’re defunding the police? Oh yeah nows my chance to go steal a car and stab somebody!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:One thing though about police reform and progressive and “woke” policies is that (and I have no evidence of this and it’s completely my speculation) I think crime increasing is less directly in response to it, knowing the education level of most average criminals, are they really watching or reading the news? I hardly think that a gang or any random 20 year old, unemployed or underemployed poorly educated male is sitting here reading the Washington Post thinking, oh, Elrich and Jawando and Mink are elected? They’re defunding the police? Oh yeah nows my chance to go steal a car and stab somebody!

I think criminals absolutely learn that other criminals committed crimes and didn't face any real consequences when caught. And I also think they are smart enough to figure out where they're more likely to be successful. For example, why are there suddenly so many carjackings by teens in MD and DC -- it's because they understand that many such crimes have been committed and the criminals just end up back on the street (if they are caught at all).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:One thing though about police reform and progressive and “woke” policies is that (and I have no evidence of this and it’s completely my speculation) I think crime increasing is less directly in response to it, knowing the education level of most average criminals, are they really watching or reading the news? I hardly think that a gang or any random 20 year old, unemployed or underemployed poorly educated male is sitting here reading the Washington Post thinking, oh, Elrich and Jawando and Mink are elected? They’re defunding the police? Oh yeah nows my chance to go steal a car and stab somebody!

I think criminals absolutely learn that other criminals committed crimes and didn't face any real consequences when caught. And I also think they are smart enough to figure out where they're more likely to be successful. For example, why are there suddenly so many carjackings by teens in MD and DC -- it's because they understand that many such crimes have been committed and the criminals just end up back on the street (if they are caught at all).

This. They may no be reading the Post, but they do know that someone in their neighborhood committed a crime; had nothing happen; and then they learn about the level of enforcement.

The majority of criminals committing these types of crimes fall into a certain demographic, and they tend to hang around with similar people, so the information sharing is there.