An early look at the labor market impact potential of large language models or What to study (major)
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Anonymous
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Generative Pre-trained Transformers (GPTs) generate profound transformations, garnering potential technological growth, permeating tasks, greatly impacting professions. This study probes GPTs’ potential trajectories, presenting a groundbreaking rubric to gauge tasks’ GPT exposure, particularly in the U.S. labor market.
Our findings indicate that approximately 80% of the U.S. workforce could have at least 10% of their work tasks affected by the introduction of GPTs, while around 19% of workers may see at least 50% of their tasks impacted. The influence spans all wage levels, with higher-income jobs potentially facing greater exposure. E Occupations Without Any Exposed Tasks Occupations with no labeled exposed tasks Agricultural Equipment Operators Athletes and Sports Competitors Automotive Glass Installers and Repairers Bus and Truck Mechanics and Diesel Engine Specialists Cement Masons and Concrete Finishers Cooks, Short Order Cutters and Trimmers, Hand Derrick Operators, Oil and Gas Dining Room and Cafeteria Attendants and Bartender Helpers Dishwashers Dredge Operators Electrical Power-Line Installers and Repairers Excavating and Loading Machine and Dragline Operators, Surface Mining Floor Layers, Except Carpet, Wood, and Hard Tiles Foundry Mold and Coremakers Helpers–Brickmasons, Blockmasons, Stonemasons, and Tile and Marble Setters Helpers–Carpenters Helpers–Painters, Paperhangers, Plasterers, and Stucco Masons Helpers–Pipelayers, Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters Helpers–Roofers Meat, Poultry, and Fish Cutters and Trimmers Motorcycle Mechanics Paving, Surfacing, and Tamping Equipment Operators Pile Driver Operators Pourers and Casters, Metal Rail-Track Laying and Maintenance Equipment Operators Refractory Materials Repairers, Except Brickmasons Roof Bolters, Mining Roustabouts, Oil and Gas Slaughterers and Meat Packers Stonemasons Tapers Tire Repairers and Changers Wellhead Pumpers Table 11: All 34 occupations for which none of our measures labeled any tasks as exposed. https://openai.com/research/gpts-are-gpts |
Anonymous
| Writers, painters, designers, illustrators, models, mathematicians, bloggers, teachers and insurance related positions, photographers and coders are at the top of the list. Lawyers and doctors are not far behind. |
Anonymous
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"Our findings indicate that the importance of science and critical thinking skills are strongly negatively
associated with exposure, suggesting that occupations requiring these skills are less likely to be impacted by current GPTs. Conversely, programming and writing skills show a strong positive association with exposure, implying that occupations involving these skills are more susceptible to being influenced by GPTs." (see Table 5 for detailed results). |
Anonymous
| PR positions, translators, authors, poets computer programmers, digital artists etc. will soon disappear as well. |
Anonymous
| Yeah, I’ve been asking ChatGPT questions about my area of expertise and let’s just say I’m not worried about my job. |
Anonymous
| Financial analyst's job is going away too. |
Anonymous
| I think we will lose about 50-60% of the white collar jobs within the next 4-6 years. This will be extremely disruptive to the economy and the society in general. |
Anonymous
| Seems like we just solved the teacher shortage. |
Anonymous
| We may not even need to attend (expensive) universities to get degrees anymore in the near future. Motivated people will have access to all the information they need delivered in a way they desire to learn more than sitting in lecture halls. |
Anonymous
One of the few positives. 
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Anonymous
| I was surprised to learn that a law firm in DC is already using 2 different AI powered programs for their litigation practice and they anticipate hiring fewer attorneys in the coming years. |
Anonymous
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Have any of you PPs saying 50% jobs are going away or whatever ever actually used these large language models?
I’ve been in the AI space for ten years, for context. And I think the people who think these are going to displace many whole professions are delusional. There are a few professions I think may be more vulnerable. But anyone who says most white collar jobs are going away is just repeating a bunch of industry hype. |
Anonymous
Compare what happened in the AI space in the past 10 years and what happened in that space in the past 10 weeks? AI is advancing at lightning speed in case you were not paying attention last week. |
Anonymous
| Yet another alarmist article on AI. |
Anonymous
| Most news reporters, news writers and editors will be unnecessary in few years. |