July 26 LA Times Tracking Trump 47 Hillary 40

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:If you are smart you believe an aggregate poll and statistical model used by Nate Silver or NYT or Market predictors.

Hmm ... I wonder if they're at all consistent ...



http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html

Yep, looks like they might be!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If you are smart you believe an aggregate poll and statistical model used by Nate Silver or NYT or Market predictors.

Hmm ... I wonder if they're at all consistent ...



http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html

Yep, looks like they might be!

Also remember they all have various frequencies of updating, Fiverthirtyeight says it does updates as they get new data, NYTIMES is daily. I dont know about others, but some could be weekly.

[Anonymous]

LA Times is a consistent outlier because it weights how respondents voted in 2012.

[Anonymous]

Latest LA Times/USC poll, Trump 47 and Clinton 42. He maintains his lead after the first debate.



https://www.peoplespunditdaily.com/news/elections/2016/10/02/defense-la-times-poll/

In 2012, the model and methodology they are using, which was designed by the team behind the RAND Continuous Presidential Election Poll, or the “Daybreak Poll,” was right when most other traditional random sample polls were wrong.

Below is the 2012 chart