For the "Close School" Crowd, help me with interpret these numbers...

[Anonymous]

This is not meant to debate the open vs close for Omicrom (that's already been done 100x here).

But the numbers for the wave are starting to get some real teeth behind it and we can start to analyze. MoCo does a great job tracking numbers for the whole county:

https://www.montgomerycountymd.gov/covid19/data/

The data clearly shows a few things at this point:

1. The wave is ending in MoCo. No debating the fact. 2 to 3 more weeks and we are back to almost non-existent levels (hooray!)
2. At no point throughout the Omi wave did hospitals go into "moderate" territory (let alone critical). With case numbers dropping so dramatically it won't happen now, rates will be consistent.

Doesn't this tell us a few things:

1. MoCo has reached the endemic phase of Covid. Cases are disassociated with outcomes.
2. The goal from day 1 was to limit strain on the hospitals. While parts of the country (low vaccinated) may be strained...we are clearly not.
3. MoCo schools did the right thing by staying open. It added no stress to the healthcare system. While certain schools closed for staffing issues (probably makes sense), the overall system did the right thing and we have a blueprint for next winter (and the winter after etc.)

Tell me these numbers don't tell that overall story...we all talk about science and data, here it is.

[Anonymous]

Less testing means less positives. Parents may not be reporting the positives. I doubt it dropped that quickly.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Less testing means less positives. Parents may not be reporting the positives. I doubt it dropped that quickly.

Look at other states/countries. It did drop quickly.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:


Doesn't this tell us a few things:

1. MoCo has reached the endemic phase of Covid. Cases are disassociated with outcomes.
2. The goal from day 1 was to limit strain on the hospitals. While parts of the country (low vaccinated) may be strained...we are clearly not.
3. MoCo schools did the right thing by staying open. It added no stress to the healthcare system. While certain schools closed for staffing issues (probably makes sense), the overall system did the right thing and we have a blueprint for next winter (and the winter after etc.)

Tell me these numbers don't tell that overall story...we all talk about science and data, here it is.

1. That's not what endemic means

and the rest of your points are political judgments that cannot be fully addressed with data.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Less testing means less positives. Parents may not be reporting the positives. I doubt it dropped that quickly.

Here comes the pandemic forever crowd (right on cue).

This one is great. While the rest of the world is seeing Omicrom surge and drop in an almost identical way…no way it could be true in MoCo. Only happening because parents aren’t reporting cases. Great stuff.

[Anonymous]

I disagree with you.

Hospitals went into surge mode in late December. Some needed to cancel elective surgeries, some had to make patients wait long hours to transfer from the ER to the ICU, and ambulances took longer to turn over patients because hospitals were too busy to register patients. This is NOT negligible impact! It obviously affected patient suffering and outcome.

Community transmission of Covid-19 - schools included - was the obvious driver for the surge of patients in hospital.

Schools should have had a planned, stress-free pivot to virtual for some weeks of January, to avoid the absentee chaos we recently went through (bus drivers, teachers, students, admin, etc).
Now we are reduced to closing a few schools who are overwhelmed with cases. OK.



Also, from a research scientist in microbiology:

SARS-Cov-2 IS NOT ENDEMIC.

It will likely become endemic. Not just yet.



Also, for the next variant:

Do not assume each variant behaves the same way.

The next variant that displaces Omicron will have to be either more transmissible (hard to imagine) or more virulent, or both.

Do not assume we are ready for it, after the chaos Omicron generated and continues to generate across the world.


The best you can do is:

1. Get your boosters in a timely manner.
2. Wear N95 or equivalent masks indoors during surges.
3. Adapt your lifestyle for maximum socialization and travel when cases are low. If you missed out on Christmas, have Christmas in July, for God's sake. The birth of Jesus wasn't actually on Dec 25th anyway. Book last-minute trips (I booked a trip to France on a few days' notice). Plan your wedding in a month instead of in a year, it will still be the best day of your life.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Less testing means less positives. Parents may not be reporting the positives. I doubt it dropped that quickly.

Here comes the pandemic forever crowd (right on cue).

This one is great. While the rest of the world is seeing Omicrom surge and drop in an almost identical way…no way it could be true in MoCo. Only happening because parents aren’t reporting cases. Great stuff.

You really think that there is a drop that quickly? Be real. It's highly contagious. It will drop in a month or so, but not this quickly. I know several parents not reporting positives. They should show the absentee rate, number of sick kids sent home and positives.

We will have the pandemic forever because the entitled people like you cannot take it seriously and be part of the solution.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Less testing means less positives. Parents may not be reporting the positives. I doubt it dropped that quickly.

Here comes the pandemic forever crowd (right on cue).

This one is great. While the rest of the world is seeing Omicrom surge and drop in an almost identical way…no way it could be true in MoCo. Only happening because parents aren’t reporting cases. Great stuff.

You really think that there is a drop that quickly? Be real. It's highly contagious. It will drop in a month or so, but not this quickly. I know several parents not reporting positives. They should show the absentee rate, number of sick kids sent home and positives.

We will have the pandemic forever because the entitled people like you cannot take it seriously and be part of the solution.

DP.. the pandemic has gone on a lot longer because of people who refuse to vaxx, not because of people are who are vaxx, mask, but still want schools open. How do I know this.. look at other countries/states that did not close down the schools. They still have covid, too.

Actually, the UK is now starting to open up more. But they still didn't shutdown the schools as much as we did.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
I disagree with you.

Hospitals went into surge mode in late December. Some needed to cancel elective surgeries, some had to make patients wait long hours to transfer from the ER to the ICU, and ambulances took longer to turn over patients because hospitals were too busy to register patients. This is NOT negligible impact! It obviously affected patient suffering and outcome.

Community transmission of Covid-19 - schools included - was the obvious driver for the surge of patients in hospital.

Schools should have had a planned, stress-free pivot to virtual for some weeks of January, to avoid the absentee chaos we recently went through (bus drivers, teachers, students, admin, etc).
Now we are reduced to closing a few schools who are overwhelmed with cases. OK.



Also, from a research scientist in microbiology:

SARS-Cov-2 IS NOT ENDEMIC.

It will likely become endemic. Not just yet.



Also, for the next variant:

Do not assume each variant behaves the same way.

The next variant that displaces Omicron will have to be either more transmissible (hard to imagine) or more virulent, or both.

Do not assume we are ready for it, after the chaos Omicron generated and continues to generate across the world.


The best you can do is:

1. Get your boosters in a timely manner.
2. Wear N95 or equivalent masks indoors during surges.
3. Adapt your lifestyle for maximum socialization and travel when cases are low. If you missed out on Christmas, have Christmas in July, for God's sake. The birth of Jesus wasn't actually on Dec 25th anyway. Book last-minute trips (I booked a trip to France on a few days' notice). Plan your wedding in a month instead of in a year, it will still be the best day of your life.

Me again.

The numbers are real. They are under-estimated, since rapid tests are not reported, some people don't test, etc, but the TREND is accurate. The DC area was among the first in the lower 48 to show the incredibly jaw-dropping Omicron surge in new cases, and is logically among the first to get rid of it.

Please note that hospitalization trends will lag by a few weeks, and mortality will lag by another few weeks.

About mortality:
Omicron does not have a signature, unlike the ground glass lung hallmark of the original strain or Delta.
Omicron kills by worsening any medical fragility the patient has. Patients will die of their diabetes, of their heart condition (known or unknow), etc.
Therefore mortality *due to confirmed Covid* will underestimate the real impact of Omicron on patient outcomes in hospital.
You can certainly make the case that the kid with a broken arm, who just happened to test positive for Covid in hospital, will not have a worse surgical outcome due to his diagnosis. But patients with chronic illnesses are at increased risk of complications in a way that isn't as obvious as if they had been infected with previous strains.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Less testing means less positives. Parents may not be reporting the positives. I doubt it dropped that quickly.

Here comes the pandemic forever crowd (right on cue).

This one is great. While the rest of the world is seeing Omicrom surge and drop in an almost identical way…no way it could be true in MoCo. Only happening because parents aren’t reporting cases. Great stuff.

You really think that there is a drop that quickly? Be real. It's highly contagious. It will drop in a month or so, but not this quickly. I know several parents not reporting positives. They should show the absentee rate, number of sick kids sent home and positives.

We will have the pandemic forever because the entitled people like you cannot take it seriously and be part of the solution.

DP.. the pandemic has gone on a lot longer because of people who refuse to vaxx, not because of people are who are vaxx, mask, but still want schools open. How do I know this.. look at other countries/states that did not close down the schools. They still have covid, too.

Actually, the UK is now starting to open up more. But they still didn't shutdown the schools as much as we did.

What are you rambling about? MoCo has one of the highest vaccine rates in the country. Vaccines alone are not going ot fix this. You can keep being a covid denier and blame shift but you are just as much a problem as they are.

Our schools didn't shut down. They went virtual which probably saved many lives.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
I disagree with you.

Hospitals went into surge mode in late December. Some needed to cancel elective surgeries, some had to make patients wait long hours to transfer from the ER to the ICU, and ambulances took longer to turn over patients because hospitals were too busy to register patients. This is NOT negligible impact! It obviously affected patient suffering and outcome.

Community transmission of Covid-19 - schools included - was the obvious driver for the surge of patients in hospital.

Schools should have had a planned, stress-free pivot to virtual for some weeks of January, to avoid the absentee chaos we recently went through (bus drivers, teachers, students, admin, etc).
Now we are reduced to closing a few schools who are overwhelmed with cases. OK.



Also, from a research scientist in microbiology:

SARS-Cov-2 IS NOT ENDEMIC.

It will likely become endemic. Not just yet.



Also, for the next variant:

Do not assume each variant behaves the same way.

The next variant that displaces Omicron will have to be either more transmissible (hard to imagine) or more virulent, or both.

Do not assume we are ready for it, after the chaos Omicron generated and continues to generate across the world.


The best you can do is:

1. Get your boosters in a timely manner.
2. Wear N95 or equivalent masks indoors during surges.
3. Adapt your lifestyle for maximum socialization and travel when cases are low. If you missed out on Christmas, have Christmas in July, for God's sake. The birth of Jesus wasn't actually on Dec 25th anyway. Book last-minute trips (I booked a trip to France on a few days' notice). Plan your wedding in a month instead of in a year, it will still be the best day of your life.

Which hospital in MoCo went to surge mode? Oh right , not one.

It’s a large and diverse country. We are highly vaccinated. But you keep watching the news that tells you how bad it is in other parts of the country (red and rural). It ain’t happening here.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
I disagree with you.

Hospitals went into surge mode in late December. Some needed to cancel elective surgeries, some had to make patients wait long hours to transfer from the ER to the ICU, and ambulances took longer to turn over patients because hospitals were too busy to register patients. This is NOT negligible impact! It obviously affected patient suffering and outcome.

Community transmission of Covid-19 - schools included - was the obvious driver for the surge of patients in hospital.

Schools should have had a planned, stress-free pivot to virtual for some weeks of January, to avoid the absentee chaos we recently went through (bus drivers, teachers, students, admin, etc).
Now we are reduced to closing a few schools who are overwhelmed with cases. OK.



Also, from a research scientist in microbiology:

SARS-Cov-2 IS NOT ENDEMIC.

It will likely become endemic. Not just yet.



Also, for the next variant:

Do not assume each variant behaves the same way.

The next variant that displaces Omicron will have to be either more transmissible (hard to imagine) or more virulent, or both.

Do not assume we are ready for it, after the chaos Omicron generated and continues to generate across the world.


The best you can do is:

1. Get your boosters in a timely manner.
2. Wear N95 or equivalent masks indoors during surges.
3. Adapt your lifestyle for maximum socialization and travel when cases are low. If you missed out on Christmas, have Christmas in July, for God's sake. The birth of Jesus wasn't actually on Dec 25th anyway. Book last-minute trips (I booked a trip to France on a few days' notice). Plan your wedding in a month instead of in a year, it will still be the best day of your life.

Which hospital in MoCo went to surge mode? Oh right , not one.

It’s a large and diverse country. We are highly vaccinated. But you keep watching the news that tells you how bad it is in other parts of the country (red and rural). It ain’t happening here.

WTF are you talking about? Nearly all of the hospitals around here were on diversion status every day when I checked (usually against claims to the contrary here).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Less testing means less positives. Parents may not be reporting the positives. I doubt it dropped that quickly.

Here comes the pandemic forever crowd (right on cue).

This one is great. While the rest of the world is seeing Omicrom surge and drop in an almost identical way…no way it could be true in MoCo. Only happening because parents aren’t reporting cases. Great stuff.

You really think that there is a drop that quickly? Be real. It's highly contagious. It will drop in a month or so, but not this quickly. I know several parents not reporting positives. They should show the absentee rate, number of sick kids sent home and positives.

We will have the pandemic forever because the entitled people like you cannot take it seriously and be part of the solution.

DP.. the pandemic has gone on a lot longer because of people who refuse to vaxx, not because of people are who are vaxx, mask, but still want schools open. How do I know this.. look at other countries/states that did not close down the schools. They still have covid, too.

Actually, the UK is now starting to open up more. But they still didn't shutdown the schools as much as we did.

What are you rambling about? MoCo has one of the highest vaccine rates in the country. Vaccines alone are not going ot fix this. You can keep being a covid denier and blame shift but you are just as much a problem as they are.

Our schools didn't shut down. They went virtual which probably saved many lives.

as the pro-virtual group said: "MoCo is not in a bubble". That was their reasoning for why it didn't matter that moco has a high vaxx rate.

Doesn't matter if we are vaxxed, boosted, masked.. covid is here to stay, so get used to it. We cannot lock down the schools anymore.

Also, I'm boosted, dummy.

[Anonymous]

It's disappointing to see how quick the attacks and insults come out (COVID denier, "we still have COVID because of you") as soon as someone acknowledges any bit of good news.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Less testing means less positives. Parents may not be reporting the positives. I doubt it dropped that quickly.

How could there be less testing when MCPS sent home tests with every student?? And PCR appointment are all booked.