Reply to For the "Close School" Crowd, help me with interpret these numbers...

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]
I disagree with you.

Hospitals went into surge mode in late December. Some needed to cancel elective surgeries, some had to make patients wait long hours to transfer from the ER to the ICU, and ambulances took longer to turn over patients because hospitals were too busy to register patients. This is NOT negligible impact! It obviously affected patient suffering and outcome.

Community transmission of Covid-19 - schools included - was the obvious driver for the surge of patients in hospital.

Schools should have had a planned, stress-free pivot to virtual for some weeks of January, to avoid the absentee chaos we recently went through (bus drivers, teachers, students, admin, etc).
Now we are reduced to closing a few schools who are overwhelmed with cases. OK.

Also, from a research scientist in microbiology:

SARS-Cov-2 IS NOT ENDEMIC.

It will likely become endemic. Not just yet.

Also, for the next variant:

Do not assume each variant behaves the same way.

The next variant that displaces Omicron will have to be either more transmissible (hard to imagine) or more virulent, or both.

Do not assume we are ready for it, after the chaos Omicron generated and continues to generate across the world.

The best you can do is:

1. Get your boosters in a timely manner.
2. Wear N95 or equivalent masks indoors during surges.
3. Adapt your lifestyle for maximum socialization and travel when cases are low. If you missed out on Christmas, have Christmas in July, for God's sake. The birth of Jesus wasn't actually on Dec 25th anyway. Book last-minute trips (I booked a trip to France on a few days' notice). Plan your wedding in a month instead of in a year, it will still be the best day of your life.

[/quote]

Me again.

The numbers are real. They are under-estimated, since rapid tests are not reported, some people don't test, etc, but the TREND is accurate. The DC area was among the first in the lower 48 to show the incredibly jaw-dropping Omicron surge in new cases, and is logically among the first to get rid of it.

Please note that hospitalization trends will lag by a few weeks, and mortality will lag by another few weeks.

About mortality:
Omicron does not have a signature, unlike the ground glass lung hallmark of the original strain or Delta. 
Omicron kills by worsening any medical fragility the patient has. Patients will die of their diabetes, of their heart condition (known or unknow), etc.
Therefore mortality *due to confirmed Covid* will underestimate the real impact of Omicron on patient outcomes in hospital.
You can certainly make the case that the kid with a broken arm, who just happened to test positive for Covid in hospital, will not have a worse surgical outcome due to his diagnosis. But patients with chronic illnesses are at increased risk of complications in a way that isn't as obvious as if they had been infected with previous strains.

[/quote]

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