College Football--Big Ten Expansion

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:If Stanford and Cal join the ACC, will that run up the traveling cost for all ACC schools? For non-revenue generating sports, I would think this is a big problem should Stanford and Cal become members of the ACC.

Travel costs to the West Coast are higher than travelling within the Mid-Atlantic region of the US so, yes, travel costs would almost certainly rise for all ACC teams if Cal & Stanford joined the ACC.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:If Stanford and Cal join the ACC, will that run up the traveling cost for all ACC schools? For non-revenue generating sports, I would think this is a big problem should Stanford and Cal become members of the ACC.

Yep. It would literally diminish the available funds for existing ACC schools.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The ACC is loaded with strong academic schools. Granted that Stanford & UCal-Berkeley are exceptional, but many ACC schools are outstanding with respect to academics.

Delusional.  Stanford and Cal are several academic levels above all ACC schools.  UVA, UNC, Miami, BC, etc.. aren't even close.

What I don't understand is that Stanford and Cal are loaded in endowment, those schools can reach into the fund to support the athletic department without any issues.  They have so many "rich" alumni there.  One would imagine that 30M/year is a drop in the bucket for Doordash CEO Tony Xu or Stanford Jerry Yang.  Stanford and Cal don't need to join the ACC to get that kind of cash.

Stanford yes on above others. Cal not so much. UVA, UNC, Miami, BC, Wake all Cal level. No one in the Pac 12 was near Cal either. Closest was UCLA and Cal.

Schools will not -- not a one -- tap endowment for sports. It will never happen except for that part of the endowment that is for sports. And no there is no pool of alums at any school willing to guarantee 30 million a year. This is all fantasy.

30M a year is just so little for many of the Silicon Valley Alumni that graduated from Stanford or Cal. I am sure it can be easily done. Larry Page made 8B in 2022 so 30M is .375% of his earnings.

[Anonymous]

Joining the ACC for Stanford & Cal is not a realistic option unless the ACC added 4 to 6 West Coast schools & created geographic divisions within the ACC. Won't happen because even Stanford & Cal do not add enough value to the ACC media rights to justify a full share payout. The economics of adding Stanford & Cal to the ACC are not favorable and it becomes worse if the ACC adds other less desirable West Coast teams such as San Diego State, Oregon State, Washington State, or any other school.

Stanford's best & most sought after attribute with respect to big time college football is its annual game against Notre Dame. Without Notre Dame on its schedule, Stanford University football has little to no value to any conference.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:Describing Cal & Stanford as "middling football programs with dispassionate fan bases", Sports Illustrated.com article asserts that joining ACC makes sense:

https://si.com/college/2023/08/08/acc-expansion-interest-california-stanford-making-sense

Is a broadcaster willing to pay $42 million a year to air Cal and Stanford games? Unless the answer is yes, adding them will cost ACC members money

I do not think you get how this works. ESPN will increase their payout to the SEC if they pick up the California markets. At worst it would be revenue neutral to the ACC or it will not happen. ACC will not do anything that would cut their payout. They are talking to ESPN now in real time about how this would work. As stated above, the ACC is not going to have just 2 west schools. They would also add others that will bring in other markets.

Maybe and maybe not. The Big12 contract explicitly contains pro-rata increases for new P5 teams. The Big10 was more careful because their contract does not. We do not know what is in the ACC contract. If adding them requires negotiation, the question becomes how much is Cal football worth to Disney. My guess would be not very much

Adding NorCal for games and SoCal by extension is worth a lot. My point was twofold. They are talking to ESPN at the same time they are talking to Cal and Stanford. They will not do anything that cuts the payout to FSU and Clemson.

If ESPN isn't willing to pay the SEC for extra games, why would they want to pay the ACC for more games?

https://www.si.com/college/2023/06/01/sec-schedule-eight-games-greg-sankey-meetings

Because of the geographic change. Advertisers pay more for new markets.

Advertisers pay for ratings- something that Cal and Stanford lack. The Big10 and Big12 already passed on them, I doubt the ACC ends up taking them

Cal and Stanford are not at the very bottom of the P5 ratings wise either, which is why the Big12 really should act. Both were better in down years last year than any of the 4 new schools that will be in the Big12 this year (per SI).

Utah had better ratings than either school, the other three all had better ratings than Cal.

https://medium.com/run-it-back-with-zach/which-college-football-programs-were-the-most-watched-in-2021-49ef4f315858

The Big12 has already said they are done expanding for now; 4 teams is a lot to absorb

Ouch, the Big 12 might have trouble next time around too. UCF and Houston don't draw well though maybe playing better teams on better networks will help. Cinci was obviously having an insane season, so their lower viewership last year (below Stanford and Cal) rather than 2021 probably more normal. They made the Playoff and were not in the top 25 in 2021.

[Anonymous]

UCF and Houston we're on national networks. What's Cal's excuse? Even Stanford is boosted by their annual ND game

[Anonymous]

Even if Stanford University offered to join the Big Ten Conference at a 50% payout forever, there is no value to the Big Ten Conference. Stanford's football value is in its rivalry relationship with Notre Dame.

Maybe Stanford could try being an independent for a year or two rather than dropping its football program, but there just do not appear to be any other economically viable options for Stanford football. And Cal football is in a worse position than Stanford football.

[Anonymous]

Notre Dame can remain as an independent because Notre Dame football draws viewers regardless of the opponent.

Stanford & Cal football cannot even generate excitement among their own respective student bodies.

(The US Military Academy at West Point is also an independent in D-1 college football.)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Notre Dame can remain as an independent because Notre Dame football draws viewers regardless of the opponent.

Stanford & Cal football cannot even generate excitement among their own respective student bodies.

(The US Military Academy at West Point is also an independent in D-1 college football.)

If the big conferences all go to a 10 game schedule, there won't be anyone for Navy to play other than second tier competition and the service academies...and I guess Stanford and Cal.

[Anonymous]

Army and Navy getting shut out by the Big10 would be one way to get congress to look at possible anti trust issues

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Notre Dame can remain as an independent because Notre Dame football draws viewers regardless of the opponent.

Stanford & Cal football cannot even generate excitement among their own respective student bodies.

(The US Military Academy at West Point is also an independent in D-1 college football.)

If the big conferences all go to a 10 game schedule, there won't be anyone for Navy to play other than second tier competition and the service academies...and I guess Stanford and Cal.

Interesting point, but the Navy/Notre Dame rivalry is much more highly valued by Notre Dame than is ND's rivalry with Stanford.

The Big Ten Conference, the SEC, and the Big 12 Conference are all in great positions regarding their football fortunes.

Notre Dame is in a good position, but that can change depending upon the upcoming redesign of the CFP (college football playoff).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Army and Navy getting shut out by the Big10 would be one way to get congress to look at possible anti trust issues

Doubtful as there are many football conferences. The Big Ten, the SEC, ACC, and the Big 12 are the top dogs, but there is also the G5 (Group of 5) football conferences.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:Notre Dame can remain as an independent because Notre Dame football draws viewers regardless of the opponent.

Stanford & Cal football cannot even generate excitement among their own respective student bodies.

(The US Military Academy at West Point is also an independent in D-1 college football.)

If the big conferences all go to a 10 game schedule, there won't be anyone for Navy to play other than second tier competition and the service academies...and I guess Stanford and Cal.

Interesting point, but the Navy/Notre Dame rivalry is much more highly valued by Notre Dame than is ND's rivalry with Stanford.

The Big Ten Conference, the SEC, and the Big 12 Conference are all in great positions regarding their football fortunes.

Notre Dame is in a good position, but that can change depending upon the upcoming redesign of the CFP (college football playoff).

I think Notre Dame will still be fine for the CFP. The Big10 and SEC can't design it in a way that opens the to accusations of acting like a cartel to abuse market position. The G5 and independent will have a route, if anything, expanding to 12 helps a school like ND because they are consistently overrated

[Anonymous]

In 1895, Notre Dame football played a 4 game schedule. The four opponents were:

Northwestern Law
Illinois Cycling Club
Indianapolis Light Artillery
Physicians and Surgeons

Not sure whether college football has progressed or regressed from the good old days of 1895.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:UCF and Houston we're on national networks. What's Cal's excuse? Even Stanford is boosted by their annual ND game

The Pac12's game times bring down ratings for all of their schools, especially the ones not good enough to regularly get primetime slots, but that is something the networks and other conferences know well (the networks like having additional timing flexibility even if ratings are lower late at night since they are so much better than anything else they could air). Having moved from Palo Alto to DC, it is tough to watch Pac12 sports #Pac12AfterDark. Plus, Pac12 Network isn't picked up anywhere outside of the west coast. I was actually surprised with how high some of the Pac12 schools were on the list.