Question about waitlist offers and waitlist length

[Anonymous]

After a disappointing lottery result, we're trying to get a sense of our odds of getting off a waitlist for any of these schools. It looks like we'll be "on the bubble" for a number of schools where we have a waitlist number in the low 40s and they've made somewhere between 30 and 50 waitlist offers in prior years.

My question is this: is there any way to get a sense of how many people wound up dropping off the waitlist because they got in elsewhere, thus shortening the waitlist without making an offer? For instance:

Waitlist on results day: 55
Total waitlist offers by October: 42

Is there any way of knowing whether those 42 offers left people on the waitlist who were still hoping for a spot and didn't get it, or if the 42 offers essentially cleared the waitlist because there were 13 peopel on the waitlist on results day who wound up getting an offer at a school they ranked higher and taking it, thus removing them from the waitlist.

I guess I'm trying to get a sense if there is often a bit of a gap (but not a huge gap, and the school has a history of making quite a few offers) between number of offers and waitlist length, if this reflects a situation where demand truly outstrips supply, or if most people ultimately get an offer if they want one.

This is for 1st grade and we're looking mostly at schools in Edgewood/Cap Hill/Brookland, if that information helps inform your answer.

[Anonymous]

Sorry OP, there really isn't. Especially in that area where there's so much variety in size, type, and desirability of schools, the lists tend to behave quite differently. It varies a lot by grade level, and can change from year to year and grade to grade at each school.

If you post your list and approximate numbers, we can be more helpful. For 1st grade I think you stand a good chance, even with those numbers, at a lot of schools.

I assume you've seen this: https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/aaron2446/viz/MSDCSeatsandWaitlistOfferData_draft/MSDCPublicDisplay

[Anonymous]

You are on the bubble - do not spend time trying to create a forecasting model that will predict with 95% confidence if you will clear it.

[Anonymous]

those are very high waitlist numbers. sometimes schools call lots of waitlisted families but there are no real guarantees of that. you should look at the list of schools with short waitlists for your child’s grade (i dont know if its out yet) and add those schools if you would seriously consider them over your current school or in-bound option.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Sorry OP, there really isn't. Especially in that area where there's so much variety in size, type, and desirability of schools, the lists tend to behave quite differently. It varies a lot by grade level, and can change from year to year and grade to grade at each school.

If you post your list and approximate numbers, we can be more helpful. For 1st grade I think you stand a good chance, even with those numbers, at a lot of schools.

I assume you've seen this: https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/aaron2446/viz/MSDCSeatsandWaitlistOfferData_draft/MSDCPublicDisplay

Yes, that's the site I've been using.

I guess we just have to wait and see. These are our numbers for the schools I think we stand the best chance at:

ITDS: 48
Lee Brookland: 45
Two Rivers 4th: 38
Ludlow Taylor: 41
Stokes French Brookland: 40

It's hard because looking at recent years is really wonky -- we wouldn't have gotten in anywhere in 2020 but I think people just didn't move around much that year because of the uncertainty of Covid. Would have gotten into several in 2021 but possibly none of them in 2022. It's just hard to know what to think our chances are and whether to think about moving, get comfortable with our IB and hope for better luck next year, etc. If our numbers were slightly better I'd feel more confident that we'd get in somewhere.

[Anonymous]

i think my school updates the waitlist number if people formally drop off. but, since ppl generally matched at a school listed below all their waitlisted options, a lot of ppl most likely tend to just leave it as is until they get called and then accept or in many instances decide to turn down the waitlist spot.

[Anonymous]

a lot of these schools do open up more in grades 2-5

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:i think my school updates the waitlist number if people formally drop off. but, since ppl generally matched at a school listed below all their waitlisted options, a lot of ppl most likely tend to just leave it as is until they get called and then accept or in many instances decide to turn down the waitlist spot.

Yes but the historical data only tells you waitlist length on results day. So a school could report a waitlist length of 55 on results day, make 45 offers, and have 10 people dropped from the waitlist automatically because they got off waitlists for higher ranked schools. The school will have cleared it's waitlist but it won't look that way in the historical data -- it will look like 10 families were out of luck, when in reality they got into a school they wanted more.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:a lot of these schools do open up more in grades 2-5

OP here and is that really true? Looking at historical data, it looks like the don't tend to clear waitlists for those grades and actually it's less favorable than for K or 1st. Waitlists overall are shorter but far fewer offers as well. At least until you get to 5th when I assume a lot of schools lose students, clearing more space for kids to come in from the lottery. But 2nd through 4th look less likely, not more likely, unless we get a better lottery number (which we might! I think our number this year was pretty bad based on our results).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:a lot of these schools do open up more in grades 2-5

OP here and is that really true? Looking at historical data, it looks like the don't tend to clear waitlists for those grades and actually it's less favorable than for K or 1st. Waitlists overall are shorter but far fewer offers as well. At least until you get to 5th when I assume a lot of schools lose students, clearing more space for kids to come in from the lottery. But 2nd through 4th look less likely, not more likely, unless we get a better lottery number (which we might! I think our number this year was pretty bad based on our results).

They stop making offers when they run out of kids on the list.

Is this for PK3?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Sorry OP, there really isn't. Especially in that area where there's so much variety in size, type, and desirability of schools, the lists tend to behave quite differently. It varies a lot by grade level, and can change from year to year and grade to grade at each school.

If you post your list and approximate numbers, we can be more helpful. For 1st grade I think you stand a good chance, even with those numbers, at a lot of schools.

I assume you've seen this: https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/aaron2446/viz/MSDCSeatsandWaitlistOfferData_draft/MSDCPublicDisplay

Yes, that's the site I've been using.

I guess we just have to wait and see. These are our numbers for the schools I think we stand the best chance at:

ITDS: 48
Lee Brookland: 45
Two Rivers 4th: 38
Ludlow Taylor: 41
Stokes French Brookland: 40

It's hard because looking at recent years is really wonky -- we wouldn't have gotten in anywhere in 2020 but I think people just didn't move around much that year because of the uncertainty of Covid. Would have gotten into several in 2021 but possibly none of them in 2022. It's just hard to know what to think our chances are and whether to think about moving, get comfortable with our IB and hope for better luck next year, etc. If our numbers were slightly better I'd feel more confident that we'd get in somewhere.

Completely. The data over the last few years makes it very difficult to meaningfully predict anything. My guess is you will get into TR4.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:a lot of these schools do open up more in grades 2-5

OP here and is that really true? Looking at historical data, it looks like the don't tend to clear waitlists for those grades and actually it's less favorable than for K or 1st. Waitlists overall are shorter but far fewer offers as well. At least until you get to 5th when I assume a lot of schools lose students, clearing more space for kids to come in from the lottery. But 2nd through 4th look less likely, not more likely, unless we get a better lottery number (which we might! I think our number this year was pretty bad based on our results).

They stop making offers when they run out of kids on the list.

Is this for PK3?

It's everywhere. Can't make an offer if theres nobody to make it too.

Some schools exhaust their lists, some don't.

OP, if this is for PK3, you have no hope at ITS. TR is a maybe. Stokes is a no. Lee, maaaaybe. At other schools you might get in even with worse numbers, for various reasons.

Did you not match anywhere? Let us help you.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:a lot of these schools do open up more in grades 2-5

OP here and is that really true? Looking at historical data, it looks like the don't tend to clear waitlists for those grades and actually it's less favorable than for K or 1st. Waitlists overall are shorter but far fewer offers as well. At least until you get to 5th when I assume a lot of schools lose students, clearing more space for kids to come in from the lottery. But 2nd through 4th look less likely, not more likely, unless we get a better lottery number (which we might! I think our number this year was pretty bad based on our results).

They stop making offers when they run out of kids on the list.

Is this for PK3?

No, 1st grade.

And I don't understand your comment -- it seems to back up my question that some non insignificant number of people who are on the waitlist as of results day will drop off the waitlist before count day (whether because they got an offer elsewhere or they moved or enrolled in private or whatever) which means that even if it looks like the school only went through half the waitlist, they actually made offers to everyone still on the waitlist at some point?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:a lot of these schools do open up more in grades 2-5

OP here and is that really true? Looking at historical data, it looks like the don't tend to clear waitlists for those grades and actually it's less favorable than for K or 1st. Waitlists overall are shorter but far fewer offers as well. At least until you get to 5th when I assume a lot of schools lose students, clearing more space for kids to come in from the lottery. But 2nd through 4th look less likely, not more likely, unless we get a better lottery number (which we might! I think our number this year was pretty bad based on our results).

They stop making offers when they run out of kids on the list.

Is this for PK3?

It's everywhere. Can't make an offer if theres nobody to make it too.

Some schools exhaust their lists, some don't.

OP, if this is for PK3, you have no hope at ITS. TR is a maybe. Stokes is a no. Lee, maaaaybe. At other schools you might get in even with worse numbers, for various reasons.

Did you not match anywhere? Let us help you.

1st grade, it's for 1st grade. I know ITS is an extreme long shot at this point. Hoping for better result at one of the others. We have a spot at our IB but we are there this year for K and do not want to stay.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:a lot of these schools do open up more in grades 2-5

OP here and is that really true? Looking at historical data, it looks like the don't tend to clear waitlists for those grades and actually it's less favorable than for K or 1st. Waitlists overall are shorter but far fewer offers as well. At least until you get to 5th when I assume a lot of schools lose students, clearing more space for kids to come in from the lottery. But 2nd through 4th look less likely, not more likely, unless we get a better lottery number (which we might! I think our number this year was pretty bad based on our results).

They stop making offers when they run out of kids on the list.

Is this for PK3?

No, 1st grade.

And I don't understand your comment -- it seems to back up my question that some non insignificant number of people who are on the waitlist as of results day will drop off the waitlist before count day (whether because they got an offer elsewhere or they moved or enrolled in private or whatever) which means that even if it looks like the school only went through half the waitlist, they actually made offers to everyone still on the waitlist at some point?

Yes, that is true. But if you are trying to compare the number of offers at various schools, it's hard to do. One school might make 10 offers then run out of kids on the list and have empty seats. Another might make 10 offers but have 200 on the wait-list. Totally different situations even though the number of offers is the same.