Which motivational times should a "good" swimmer hit?

[Anonymous]

I know every swimmer should be reaching for the top motivational times, but what times should a swimmer be hitting to be able to say... I'm good at this. I have a shot of elite swimming if I work hard and keep doing this. Etc?

[Anonymous]

I think it depends what you mean by "elite" swimming. For an age grouper are we talking about LSC championships, zones, NCSAs, ISCA? Senior level swimmers do you mean sectionals/futures/junior nationals? Lots of different levels and goals.

[Anonymous]

Once they make sectionals cuts. In high school, a AAA swimmer should be able to find a D3 program somewhere.

[Anonymous]

This really is not possible to answer with these facts. A kid with AAAA times at 10 may end up having no shot at it when older. It depends on lots of things: height, training days, lack of injuries, endurance, etc.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think it depends what you mean by "elite" swimming. For an age grouper are we talking about LSC championships, zones, NCSAs, ISCA? Senior level swimmers do you mean sectionals/futures/junior nationals? Lots of different levels and goals.

I mean, for an age grouper, what times should they be hitting to think that they might be good at this long term? Understanding that so much can change with swimming as a swimmer gets older.

For example, if they're making Zones as an age grouper, but not in all events, is that a bad sign? If they have some AAA times but some times are only A, is that a bad sign?

With swimming, it's hard to understand what "good" is.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This really is not possible to answer with these facts. A kid with AAAA times at 10 may end up having no shot at it when older. It depends on lots of things: height, training days, lack of injuries, endurance, etc.

This is my question. Does a kid with AAA, AA and A times at 10 have a shot at being "good" long term, or does the mix of times rule them out? I understand that a kid with AAAA times across the board can perform poorly later on, but what about a kid with a mix of times? Is that a bad sign?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This really is not possible to answer with these facts. A kid with AAAA times at 10 may end up having no shot at it when older. It depends on lots of things: height, training days, lack of injuries, endurance, etc.

This is my question. Does a kid with AAA, AA and A times at 10 have a shot at being "good" long term, or does the mix of times rule them out? I understand that a kid with AAAA times across the board can perform poorly later on, but what about a kid with a mix of times? Is that a bad sign?

It’s not a sign of anything. Yes they have a shot of being good. But so does the 10 year old with BB times. You won’t know until they are 15+

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This really is not possible to answer with these facts. A kid with AAAA times at 10 may end up having no shot at it when older. It depends on lots of things: height, training days, lack of injuries, endurance, etc.

This is my question. Does a kid with AAA, AA and A times at 10 have a shot at being "good" long term, or does the mix of times rule them out? I understand that a kid with AAAA times across the board can perform poorly later on, but what about a kid with a mix of times? Is that a bad sign?

It’s not a sign of anything. Yes they have a shot of being good. But so does the 10 year old with BB times. You won’t know until they are 15+

The BB 10 year old has a 1% chance of being a D1 whereas a 10 year old with AAA times might have a 20% chance.

There is a correlation. The reason the AAA kid isn’t a guarantee is growth, motivation, etc. a lot of good swimmers drop out. It happens.

A kid also needs to be good at multiple strokes and longer distances. So a 10 year old good at 50 free is less likely to succeed than the backstroker who kills a 100.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This really is not possible to answer with these facts. A kid with AAAA times at 10 may end up having no shot at it when older. It depends on lots of things: height, training days, lack of injuries, endurance, etc.

This is my question. Does a kid with AAA, AA and A times at 10 have a shot at being "good" long term, or does the mix of times rule them out? I understand that a kid with AAAA times across the board can perform poorly later on, but what about a kid with a mix of times? Is that a bad sign?

It’s not a sign of anything. Yes they have a shot of being good. But so does the 10 year old with BB times. You won’t know until they are 15+

The BB 10 year old has a 1% chance of being a D1 whereas a 10 year old with AAA times might have a 20% chance.

There is a correlation. The reason the AAA kid isn’t a guarantee is growth, motivation, etc. a lot of good swimmers drop out. It happens.

A kid also needs to be good at multiple strokes and longer distances. So a 10 year old good at 50 free is less likely to succeed than the backstroker who kills a 100.

This is true. What strokes and distances is the kid good at? Recognizing that a good breast stroker has usually a better advantage than being good in back or fly. At 10 the kid should be at A times and by 12 they should be hitting A minimums but probably AA times if they are looking for D1. I would think As at 12 would be D3 if they continue on the curve.

[Anonymous]

I would say that at 10 they should be hitting AA times, since they are easier. At 12 that should be back to AA times and once puberty has happened there should be a jump to AAA times. So that is a broad range. The girl who shoots up at 12 will probably stay at that height and better be hitting at least AA/AAA times. Whereas a later bloomer that age might be 14. Boys are at that 15/16 mark.

I have seen 12 year old girls that looked like giants and dominated but that was their swim peak.

[Anonymous]

For my kid, it was making MCSW All Star times. At that point coaches started getting serious about his potential and he saw a future for himself in the sport. This happened mid puberty. Previous to that, he was just trying to secure a spot in summer swim A meets. He’s now striving to make cuts for NCSAs.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This really is not possible to answer with these facts. A kid with AAAA times at 10 may end up having no shot at it when older. It depends on lots of things: height, training days, lack of injuries, endurance, etc.

This is my question. Does a kid with AAA, AA and A times at 10 have a shot at being "good" long term, or does the mix of times rule them out? I understand that a kid with AAAA times across the board can perform poorly later on, but what about a kid with a mix of times? Is that a bad sign?

It’s not a sign of anything. Yes they have a shot of being good. But so does the 10 year old with BB times. You won’t know until they are 15+

The BB 10 year old has a 1% chance of being a D1 whereas a 10 year old with AAA times might have a 20% chance.

There is a correlation. The reason the AAA kid isn’t a guarantee is growth, motivation, etc. a lot of good swimmers drop out. It happens.

A kid also needs to be good at multiple strokes and longer distances. So a 10 year old good at 50 free is less likely to succeed than the backstroker who kills a 100.

This is true. What strokes and distances is the kid good at? Recognizing that a good breast stroker has usually a better advantage than being good in back or fly. At 10 the kid should be at A times and by 12 they should be hitting A minimums but probably AA times if they are looking for D1. I would think As at 12 would be D3 if they continue on the curve.

+1, being a good breaststroker from a young age is something that seems to hold up over the years, and also is an advantage in IMs. Being good across all the strokes as opposed to just being a good freestyler is an advantage, so I would think if you have a kid that is an A or better swimmer in all the strokes that is something that bodes well. But as others have said, puberty will play a big part in determining how good a kid can be in their late teens headed into college.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This really is not possible to answer with these facts. A kid with AAAA times at 10 may end up having no shot at it when older. It depends on lots of things: height, training days, lack of injuries, endurance, etc.

This is my question. Does a kid with AAA, AA and A times at 10 have a shot at being "good" long term, or does the mix of times rule them out? I understand that a kid with AAAA times across the board can perform poorly later on, but what about a kid with a mix of times? Is that a bad sign?

It’s not a sign of anything. Yes they have a shot of being good. But so does the 10 year old with BB times. You won’t know until they are 15+

The BB 10 year old has a 1% chance of being a D1 whereas a 10 year old with AAA times might have a 20% chance.

There is a correlation. The reason the AAA kid isn’t a guarantee is growth, motivation, etc. a lot of good swimmers drop out. It happens.

A kid also needs to be good at multiple strokes and longer distances. So a 10 year old good at 50 free is less likely to succeed than the backstroker who kills a 100.

This is true. What strokes and distances is the kid good at? Recognizing that a good breast stroker has usually a better advantage than being good in back or fly. At 10 the kid should be at A times and by 12 they should be hitting A minimums but probably AA times if they are looking for D1. I would think As at 12 would be D3 if they continue on the curve.

+1, being a good breaststroker from a young age is something that seems to hold up over the years, and also is an advantage in IMs. Being good across all the strokes as opposed to just being a good freestyler is an advantage, so I would think if you have a kid that is an A or better swimmer in all the strokes that is something that bodes well. But as others have said, puberty will play a big part in determining how good a kid can be in their late teens headed into college.

Imo, breast stroke holds up bc less reliant on height. Long distance free and 200 fly would be next strokes that may have early indicators. Girls hit puberty first so if girls are hitting sectionals cuts in middle school, they will make Metros in HS and have a chance to swim d3 in college provided still want to/no injuries. I would say your kid is “good” if making those times in middle school.

Boys tend to grow later so likely have to wait a little longer to see, imo.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This really is not possible to answer with these facts. A kid with AAAA times at 10 may end up having no shot at it when older. It depends on lots of things: height, training days, lack of injuries, endurance, etc.

This is my question. Does a kid with AAA, AA and A times at 10 have a shot at being "good" long term, or does the mix of times rule them out? I understand that a kid with AAAA times across the board can perform poorly later on, but what about a kid with a mix of times? Is that a bad sign?

It’s not a sign of anything. Yes they have a shot of being good. But so does the 10 year old with BB times. You won’t know until they are 15+

The BB 10 year old has a 1% chance of being a D1 whereas a 10 year old with AAA times might have a 20% chance.

There is a correlation. The reason the AAA kid isn’t a guarantee is growth, motivation, etc. a lot of good swimmers drop out. It happens.

A kid also needs to be good at multiple strokes and longer distances. So a 10 year old good at 50 free is less likely to succeed than the backstroker who kills a 100.

This is true. What strokes and distances is the kid good at? Recognizing that a good breast stroker has usually a better advantage than being good in back or fly. At 10 the kid should be at A times and by 12 they should be hitting A minimums but probably AA times if they are looking for D1. I would think As at 12 would be D3 if they continue on the curve.

+1, being a good breaststroker from a young age is something that seems to hold up over the years, and also is an advantage in IMs. Being good across all the strokes as opposed to just being a good freestyler is an advantage, so I would think if you have a kid that is an A or better swimmer in all the strokes that is something that bodes well. But as others have said, puberty will play a big part in determining how good a kid can be in their late teens headed into college.

Imo, breast stroke holds up bc less reliant on height. Long distance free and 200 fly would be next strokes that may have early indicators. Girls hit puberty first so if girls are hitting sectionals cuts in middle school, they will make Metros in HS and have a chance to swim d3 in college provided still want to/no injuries. I would say your kid is “good” if making those times in middle school.

Boys tend to grow later so likely have to wait a little longer to see, imo.

Sectionals times are significantly faster than Metros times, so that doesn't make much sense.

[Anonymous]

So if you are BB/A boy at 13 is it over? No chance of college swim?