Reply to Which motivational times should a "good" swimmer hit?

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]This really is not possible to answer with these facts. A kid with AAAA times at 10 may end up having no shot at it when older. It depends on lots of things: height, training days, lack of injuries, endurance, etc. 
[/quote]

This is my question.  Does a kid with AAA, AA and A times at 10 have a shot at being "good" long term, or does the mix of times rule them out?  I understand that a kid with AAAA times across the board can perform poorly later on, but what about a kid with a mix of times?  Is that a bad sign? [/quote]

It’s not a sign of anything. Yes they have a shot of being good. But so does the 10 year old with BB times. You won’t know until they are 15+[/quote]

The BB 10 year old has a 1% chance of being a D1 whereas a 10 year old with AAA times might have a 20% chance.

There is a correlation.  The reason the AAA kid isn’t a guarantee is growth, motivation, etc.  a lot of good swimmers drop out.  It happens.

A kid also needs to be good at multiple strokes and longer distances.  So a 10 year old good at 50 free is less likely to succeed than the backstroker who kills a 100. [/quote]

This is true.  What strokes and distances is the kid good at?  Recognizing that a good breast stroker has usually a better advantage than being good in back or fly. At 10 the kid should be at A times and by 12 they should be hitting A minimums but probably AA times if they are looking for D1.  I would think As at 12 would be D3 if they continue on the curve.[/quote]

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