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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]This really is not possible to answer with these facts. A kid with AAAA times at 10 may end up having no shot at it when older. It depends on lots of things: height, training days, lack of injuries, endurance, etc. 
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This is my question.  Does a kid with AAA, AA and A times at 10 have a shot at being "good" long term, or does the mix of times rule them out?  I understand that a kid with AAAA times across the board can perform poorly later on, but what about a kid with a mix of times?  Is that a bad sign? [/quote]

It’s not a sign of anything. Yes they have a shot of being good. But so does the 10 year old with BB times. You won’t know until they are 15+[/quote]

The BB 10 year old has a 1% chance of being a D1 whereas a 10 year old with AAA times might have a 20% chance.

There is a correlation.  The reason the AAA kid isn’t a guarantee is growth, motivation, etc.  a lot of good swimmers drop out.  It happens.

A kid also needs to be good at multiple strokes and longer distances.  So a 10 year old good at 50 free is less likely to succeed than the backstroker who kills a 100. [/quote]

This is true.  What strokes and distances is the kid good at?  Recognizing that a good breast stroker has usually a better advantage than being good in back or fly. At 10 the kid should be at A times and by 12 they should be hitting A minimums but probably AA times if they are looking for D1.  I would think As at 12 would be D3 if they continue on the curve.[/quote]
+1, being a good breaststroker from a young age is something that seems to hold up over the years, and also is an advantage in IMs. Being good across all the strokes as opposed to just being a good freestyler is an advantage, so I would think if you have a kid that is an A or better swimmer in all the strokes that is something that bodes well. But as others have said, puberty will play a big part in determining how good a kid can be in their late teens headed into college. [/quote]

Imo, breast stroke holds up bc less reliant on height. Long distance free and 200 fly would be next strokes that may have early indicators. Girls hit puberty first so if girls are hitting sectionals cuts in middle school, they will make Metros in HS and have a chance to swim d3 in college provided still want to/no injuries. I would say your kid is “good” if making those times in middle school.

Boys tend to grow later so likely have to wait a little longer to see, imo.[/quote]

Sectionals times are significantly faster than Metros times, so that doesn't make much sense. [/quote]

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