How much will Biden lose by?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think normal people are pretty horrified by both MAGA and campus idiots, and all of that is clearly Russian disinformation at play. So as long as the intelligent, non-Jihadists or MAGA adults vote, Biden will win.

Most normie low-info Americans dislike Trump and his chaos; were horrified by the October 7 terror attacks; think Israel has a right to go after Hamas but probably are not too attuned to the civilian suffering; see the campus protests as just something that young privileged American college students do.

Remember, there was so much civilian suffering in the wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, under ISIS.....and it really did not move the average low-info normie American to care all that much or change their voting habits. Obama was elected because Bush screwed up in Iraq so badly and then blew-up the economy.

Normie low-info Americans are starting to memory-hole the pandemic, so that leaves a good portion of them with fuzzy positive vibes about the first couple years of the Trump admin on the economic front. Will see how it all shakes out.

But, right now? Biden has the median voter IMHO. Trump is not expanding his base.

Biden, like HRC, just has a lock on most higher income areas. The idea that he has ‘the median voter’ is just lazy inside the beltway rationalization.

Expect painfully low turnout as voters realize both parties are very bad jokes at best…

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No one reached 270 electoral college votes. So it comes down to a vote of 27 to 23 in the house. So he loses by 4 votes.

How will neither of them reach 270?

Also did you know it'll be a new Congress by then? So probably not losing by 4 votes. I mean who knows what the future brings, but it's unlikely the next Congress is exactly the same as thing Congress.

Not PP but while the next Congress may not have a Republican majority, the way the vote works in a 269-269 tie or another scenario when neither reach 270 is one vote per state, and Democrats are unlikely to have the majority of state delegations even if they regain the majority as most think they will.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No one reached 270 electoral college votes. So it comes down to a vote of 27 to 23 in the house. So he loses by 4 votes.

How will neither of them reach 270?

Also did you know it'll be a new Congress by then? So probably not losing by 4 votes. I mean who knows what the future brings, but it's unlikely the next Congress is exactly the same as thing Congress.

Not PP but while the next Congress may not have a Republican majority, the way the vote works in a 269-269 tie or another scenario when neither reach 270 is one vote per state, and Democrats are unlikely to have the majority of state delegations even if they regain the majority as most think they will.

Right, good point. Back to stress eating.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think normal people are pretty horrified by both MAGA and campus idiots, and all of that is clearly Russian disinformation at play. So as long as the intelligent, non-Jihadists or MAGA adults vote, Biden will win.

Most normie low-info Americans dislike Trump and his chaos; were horrified by the October 7 terror attacks; think Israel has a right to go after Hamas but probably are not too attuned to the civilian suffering; see the campus protests as just something that young privileged American college students do.

Remember, there was so much civilian suffering in the wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, under ISIS.....and it really did not move the average low-info normie American to care all that much or change their voting habits. Obama was elected because Bush screwed up in Iraq so badly and then blew-up the economy.

Normie low-info Americans are starting to memory-hole the pandemic, so that leaves a good portion of them with fuzzy positive vibes about the first couple years of the Trump admin on the economic front. Will see how it all shakes out.

But, right now? Biden has the median voter IMHO. Trump is not expanding his base.

Biden, like HRC, just has a lock on most higher income areas. The idea that he has ‘the median voter’ is just lazy inside the beltway rationalization.

Expect painfully low turnout as voters realize both parties are very bad jokes at best…

I know I’m the outlier here, but I actually think turnout will be the highest of all time. Remember, 2024 will be the first election in over 100 years to feature an incumbent president against a former president. No one alive has ever seen this before.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think normal people are pretty horrified by both MAGA and campus idiots, and all of that is clearly Russian disinformation at play. So as long as the intelligent, non-Jihadists or MAGA adults vote, Biden will win.

Most normie low-info Americans dislike Trump and his chaos; were horrified by the October 7 terror attacks; think Israel has a right to go after Hamas but probably are not too attuned to the civilian suffering; see the campus protests as just something that young privileged American college students do.

Remember, there was so much civilian suffering in the wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, under ISIS.....and it really did not move the average low-info normie American to care all that much or change their voting habits. Obama was elected because Bush screwed up in Iraq so badly and then blew-up the economy.

Normie low-info Americans are starting to memory-hole the pandemic, so that leaves a good portion of them with fuzzy positive vibes about the first couple years of the Trump admin on the economic front. Will see how it all shakes out.

But, right now? Biden has the median voter IMHO. Trump is not expanding his base.

Biden, like HRC, just has a lock on most higher income areas. The idea that he has ‘the median voter’ is just lazy inside the beltway rationalization.

Expect painfully low turnout as voters realize both parties are very bad jokes at best…

I know I’m the outlier here, but I actually think turnout will be the highest of all time. Remember, 2024 will be the first election in over 100 years to feature an incumbent president against a former president. No one alive has ever seen this before.

I actually think the consequences of overturning Roe will drive turnout. Women of all ages and political persuasions are enraged. And between now and then, there are going to be a lot more horror stories. It’s going to be everywoman on the news having to be medivaced out of one of the lower 48 for any one of the myriad things that can go wrong. Those women will speak out and their stories will drive clicks.

[Anonymous]

I think women, even religious right-wing women, will turn out to protect themselves and their daughters. It didn't turn out well going after IVF, and it won't turn out well going after pregnancy care. Women realize it's not even about abortion but just about healthcare for women of childbearing age who very much want kids. It was a GOP miscalculation.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think normal people are pretty horrified by both MAGA and campus idiots, and all of that is clearly Russian disinformation at play. So as long as the intelligent, non-Jihadists or MAGA adults vote, Biden will win.

Most normie low-info Americans dislike Trump and his chaos; were horrified by the October 7 terror attacks; think Israel has a right to go after Hamas but probably are not too attuned to the civilian suffering; see the campus protests as just something that young privileged American college students do.

Remember, there was so much civilian suffering in the wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, under ISIS.....and it really did not move the average low-info normie American to care all that much or change their voting habits. Obama was elected because Bush screwed up in Iraq so badly and then blew-up the economy.

Normie low-info Americans are starting to memory-hole the pandemic, so that leaves a good portion of them with fuzzy positive vibes about the first couple years of the Trump admin on the economic front. Will see how it all shakes out.

But, right now? Biden has the median voter IMHO. Trump is not expanding his base.

Biden, like HRC, just has a lock on most higher income areas. The idea that he has ‘the median voter’ is just lazy inside the beltway rationalization.

Expect painfully low turnout as voters realize both parties are very bad jokes at best…

I know I’m the outlier here, but I actually think turnout will be the highest of all time. Remember, 2024 will be the first election in over 100 years to feature an incumbent president against a former president. No one alive has ever seen this before.

I actually think the consequences of overturning Roe will drive turnout. Women of all ages and political persuasions are enraged. And between now and then, there are going to be a lot more horror stories. It’s going to be everywoman on the news having to be medivaced out of one of the lower 48 for any one of the myriad things that can go wrong. Those women will speak out and their stories will drive clicks.

+1 I don’t think people are going to turn out because it’s a president vs a former president***. They’re going to turn out because of abortion, the GOP’s attempted coup and Project 2025.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think normal people are pretty horrified by both MAGA and campus idiots, and all of that is clearly Russian disinformation at play. So as long as the intelligent, non-Jihadists or MAGA adults vote, Biden will win.

Most normie low-info Americans dislike Trump and his chaos; were horrified by the October 7 terror attacks; think Israel has a right to go after Hamas but probably are not too attuned to the civilian suffering; see the campus protests as just something that young privileged American college students do.

Remember, there was so much civilian suffering in the wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, under ISIS.....and it really did not move the average low-info normie American to care all that much or change their voting habits. Obama was elected because Bush screwed up in Iraq so badly and then blew-up the economy.

Normie low-info Americans are starting to memory-hole the pandemic, so that leaves a good portion of them with fuzzy positive vibes about the first couple years of the Trump admin on the economic front. Will see how it all shakes out.

But, right now? Biden has the median voter IMHO. Trump is not expanding his base.

Biden, like HRC, just has a lock on most higher income areas. The idea that he has ‘the median voter’ is just lazy inside the beltway rationalization.

Expect painfully low turnout as voters realize both parties are very bad jokes at best…

You’re so hoping that your “both sides” garbage rhetoric sticks.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think normal people are pretty horrified by both MAGA and campus idiots, and all of that is clearly Russian disinformation at play. So as long as the intelligent, non-Jihadists or MAGA adults vote, Biden will win.

Most normie low-info Americans dislike Trump and his chaos; were horrified by the October 7 terror attacks; think Israel has a right to go after Hamas but probably are not too attuned to the civilian suffering; see the campus protests as just something that young privileged American college students do.

Remember, there was so much civilian suffering in the wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, under ISIS.....and it really did not move the average low-info normie American to care all that much or change their voting habits. Obama was elected because Bush screwed up in Iraq so badly and then blew-up the economy.

Normie low-info Americans are starting to memory-hole the pandemic, so that leaves a good portion of them with fuzzy positive vibes about the first couple years of the Trump admin on the economic front. Will see how it all shakes out.

But, right now? Biden has the median voter IMHO. Trump is not expanding his base.

Biden, like HRC, just has a lock on most higher income areas. The idea that he has ‘the median voter’ is just lazy inside the beltway rationalization.

Expect painfully low turnout as voters realize both parties are very bad jokes at best…

I know I’m the outlier here, but I actually think turnout will be the highest of all time. Remember, 2024 will be the first election in over 100 years to feature an incumbent president against a former president. No one alive has ever seen this before.

I actually think the consequences of overturning Roe will drive turnout. Women of all ages and political persuasions are enraged. And between now and then, there are going to be a lot more horror stories. It’s going to be everywoman on the news having to be medivaced out of one of the lower 48 for any one of the myriad things that can go wrong. Those women will speak out and their stories will drive clicks.

Shhhh they think we’ve forgotten again.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think women, even religious right-wing women, will turn out to protect themselves and their daughters. It didn't turn out well going after IVF, and it won't turn out well going after pregnancy care. Women realize it's not even about abortion but just about healthcare for women of childbearing age who very much want kids. It was a GOP miscalculation.

With the exception of the IVF fiasco in Alabama, the media seems intent on ignoring many of the horror stories that have been emerging over the past 2 years. I see stories, but they aren’t exactly leading the news.
Truly disappointing, as someone who had to terminate a life-threatening (but very much wanted) pregnancy, that these stories aren’t receiving top billing in mainstream media. Women shouldn’t need to be airlifted from one state in our country to another to receive lifesaving obstetric care. Similar to Ireland, I guess people might start to wake up to the reality of the Dobbs decision’s effects on women’s healthcare once enough pregnant women die.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think normal people are pretty horrified by both MAGA and campus idiots, and all of that is clearly Russian disinformation at play. So as long as the intelligent, non-Jihadists or MAGA adults vote, Biden will win.

Most normie low-info Americans dislike Trump and his chaos; were horrified by the October 7 terror attacks; think Israel has a right to go after Hamas but probably are not too attuned to the civilian suffering; see the campus protests as just something that young privileged American college students do.

Remember, there was so much civilian suffering in the wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, under ISIS.....and it really did not move the average low-info normie American to care all that much or change their voting habits. Obama was elected because Bush screwed up in Iraq so badly and then blew-up the economy.

Normie low-info Americans are starting to memory-hole the pandemic, so that leaves a good portion of them with fuzzy positive vibes about the first couple years of the Trump admin on the economic front. Will see how it all shakes out.

But, right now? Biden has the median voter IMHO. Trump is not expanding his base.

Biden, like HRC, just has a lock on most higher income areas. The idea that he has ‘the median voter’ is just lazy inside the beltway rationalization.

Expect painfully low turnout as voters realize both parties are very bad jokes at best…

I know I’m the outlier here, but I actually think turnout will be the highest of all time. Remember, 2024 will be the first election in over 100 years to feature an incumbent president against a former president. No one alive has ever seen this before.

I actually think the consequences of overturning Roe will drive turnout. Women of all ages and political persuasions are enraged. And between now and then, there are going to be a lot more horror stories. It’s going to be everywoman on the news having to be medivaced out of one of the lower 48 for any one of the myriad things that can go wrong. Those women will speak out and their stories will drive clicks.

I disagree. There are about 5-7 swing states that will determine the outcome of the election. And in states like Michigan progressives are indicating they will vote for Kennedy or stay home. It only takes a small margin for Trump to win - a few thousand in each swing state. And young people and progressives are more motivated by Gaza than they are by the roll back in women's rights. For this reason, I think Trump is going to win.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Just this week

Biden banned TikTok
Proposed 44.6 percent capital gains rate
Tax on unearned income
Completely ignored biggest issue of violence on 200 college campuses

He’s losing voters cradle to grave

Gaza is about 10,000 on most of our lists to worry about. G

Speak for yourself.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think normal people are pretty horrified by both MAGA and campus idiots, and all of that is clearly Russian disinformation at play. So as long as the intelligent, non-Jihadists or MAGA adults vote, Biden will win.

Most normie low-info Americans dislike Trump and his chaos; were horrified by the October 7 terror attacks; think Israel has a right to go after Hamas but probably are not too attuned to the civilian suffering; see the campus protests as just something that young privileged American college students do.

Remember, there was so much civilian suffering in the wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, under ISIS.....and it really did not move the average low-info normie American to care all that much or change their voting habits. Obama was elected because Bush screwed up in Iraq so badly and then blew-up the economy.

Normie low-info Americans are starting to memory-hole the pandemic, so that leaves a good portion of them with fuzzy positive vibes about the first couple years of the Trump admin on the economic front. Will see how it all shakes out.

But, right now? Biden has the median voter IMHO. Trump is not expanding his base.

Biden, like HRC, just has a lock on most higher income areas. The idea that he has ‘the median voter’ is just lazy inside the beltway rationalization.

Expect painfully low turnout as voters realize both parties are very bad jokes at best…

I know I’m the outlier here, but I actually think turnout will be the highest of all time. Remember, 2024 will be the first election in over 100 years to feature an incumbent president against a former president. No one alive has ever seen this before.

I actually think the consequences of overturning Roe will drive turnout. Women of all ages and political persuasions are enraged. And between now and then, there are going to be a lot more horror stories. It’s going to be everywoman on the news having to be medivaced out of one of the lower 48 for any one of the myriad things that can go wrong. Those women will speak out and their stories will drive clicks.

I disagree. There are about 5-7 swing states that will determine the outcome of the election. And in states like Michigan progressives are indicating they will vote for Kennedy or stay home. It only takes a small margin for Trump to win - a few thousand in each swing state. And young people and progressives are more motivated by Gaza than they are by the roll back in women's rights. For this reason, I think Trump is going to win.

The most recent poll has Gaza ranked 13th of concerns for young voters.
It’s loud and very online, but that’s it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Just this week

Biden banned TikTok
Proposed 44.6 percent capital gains rate
Tax on unearned income
Completely ignored biggest issue of violence on 200 college campuses

He’s losing voters cradle to grave

Gaza is about 10,000 on most of our lists to worry about. G

Speak for yourself.

You can care about Gaza if that's your thing. Most voters don't care and/or aren't paying attention to it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think women, even religious right-wing women, will turn out to protect themselves and their daughters. It didn't turn out well going after IVF, and it won't turn out well going after pregnancy care. Women realize it's not even about abortion but just about healthcare for women of childbearing age who very much want kids. It was a GOP miscalculation.

With the exception of the IVF fiasco in Alabama, the media seems intent on ignoring many of the horror stories that have been emerging over the past 2 years. I see stories, but they aren’t exactly leading the news.
Truly disappointing, as someone who had to terminate a life-threatening (but very much wanted) pregnancy, that these stories aren’t receiving top billing in mainstream media. Women shouldn’t need to be airlifted from one state in our country to another to receive lifesaving obstetric care. Similar to Ireland, I guess people might start to wake up to the reality of the Dobbs decision’s effects on women’s healthcare once enough pregnant women die.

I’ve seen quite a bit of coverage of the abortion bans actually. And the R flip-flopping over them. It’s clear that the extreme pro life position is not all that politically popular with the electorate because now most R’s (including Trump!) are trying to walk it back somewhat.

Also the Trump trial is getting huge coverage. I don’t think it’s good for Trump. People had Trump nostalgia for a little while but now that he’s back in the news for his antics, and facing legal troubles, they’re thinking “mmmm … better not sign up for that again.”