TJ admissions change from Merit to Essay impact to Asian American Students

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
Asian count remains more or less same, but the Asian percent has gone down?

You’ve narrowed the y-axis to make the change look more significant that it actually was.

The average % of Asian students in the admitted class was 68% before the change and now it’s 58%. So 10% drop. And, looking at absolute numbers, the number of Asian students per admitted class went from 330 to 321.

There are NINE fewer Asian students per admitted class on average.

[Anonymous]

The number of Asian students enrolled at TJ by school year (fall):
17-18: 1,216
18-19: 1,251
19-20: 1,293
20-21: 1,303
21-22: 1,264 **
22-23: 1,293 **
23-24: 1,275 **




It’s may not be obvious from above, but aside from 2020 & 2019, there are MORE Asian students at TJ since the admissions change than any other year in the school’s history.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Asian count remains more or less same, but the Asian percent has gone down?

You’ve narrowed the y-axis to make the change look more significant that it actually was.

The average % of Asian students in the admitted class was 68% before the change and now it’s 58%. So 10% drop. And, looking at absolute numbers, the number of Asian students per admitted class went from 330 to 321.

There are NINE fewer Asian students per admitted class on average.

"Charts should convey information and make a point. We make charts to illustrate ideas that have context beyond their x- and y-axes. Forcing the y-axis to start at zero can do just as much to obscure and confuse the point as the opposite."

https://qz.com/418083/its-ok-not-to-start-your-y-axis-at-zero

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Asian count remains more or less same, but the Asian percent has gone down?

You’ve narrowed the y-axis to make the change look more significant that it actually was.

The average % of Asian students in the admitted class was 68% before the change and now it’s 58%. So 10% drop. And, looking at absolute numbers, the number of Asian students per admitted class went from 330 to 321.

There are NINE fewer Asian students per admitted class on average.

"Charts should convey information and make a point. We make charts to illustrate ideas that have context beyond their x- and y-axes. Forcing the y-axis to start at zero can do just as much to obscure and confuse the point as the opposite."

https://qz.com/418083/its-ok-not-to-start-your-y-axis-at-zero

And zooming in so narrowly makes the change look more significant than it was.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Asian count remains more or less same, but the Asian percent has gone down?

You’ve narrowed the y-axis to make the change look more significant that it actually was.

The average % of Asian students in the admitted class was 68% before the change and now it’s 58%. So 10% drop. And, looking at absolute numbers, the number of Asian students per admitted class went from 330 to 321.

There are NINE fewer Asian students per admitted class on average.

AND you got some numbers wrong.


2022 data
https://thebullelephant.com/tjhsst-admission-stats-class-of-2022/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
Asian count remains more or less same, but the Asian percent has gone down?
Along with the admissions change, the total number of seats were expanded by 100 seats, but Asian students were solely excluded from participating in the expanded seat assignment. There are consistently 1000+ declined Asian applicants each year, largest among all ethnicities, and none of them are allowed to receive a single seat from the expanded seat quota.

race blind yet racial quotas!

[Anonymous]

(typo on my correction - should be 65% to 75%)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

2022 data
https://thebullelephant.com/tjhsst-admission-stats-class-of-2022/

Why doesnt FCPS disclose the applicant count by race now, like they always did before admissions change? All data points to the fact that Asians acceptance rate is lower compared to students of other races. Is the concern it would get exposed?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

2022 data
https://thebullelephant.com/tjhsst-admission-stats-class-of-2022/

Why doesnt FCPS disclose the applicant count by race now, like they always did before admissions change? All data points to the fact that Asians acceptance rate is lower compared to students of other races. Is the concern it would get exposed?

There are many middle schools with extremely low numbers of Asians. Thus we observe the Asian acceptance rate proportionally decreases now that some schools with very few Asians send 1.5% of their kids.

You have to understand that acceptance is divided by the new expanded total class size, so it's a simple equation of proportion that Asian acceptance rate must decrease. It can only stay the same if Asians significantly increased their number of applications.

If Asian families would move to all the middle schools where there currently are very few Asians instead of concentrating at Rocky Run and Carson, then we would see Asians increase in percentage again.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Asian count remains more or less same, but the Asian percent has gone down?

You’ve narrowed the y-axis to make the change look more significant that it actually was.

The average % of Asian students in the admitted class was 68% before the change and now it’s 58%. So 10% drop. And, looking at absolute numbers, the number of Asian students per admitted class went from 330 to 321.

There are NINE fewer Asian students per admitted class on average.

Also claiming the old system where people were buying the test answers was merit is a joke.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

2022 data
https://thebullelephant.com/tjhsst-admission-stats-class-of-2022/

Why doesnt FCPS disclose the applicant count by race now, like they always did before admissions change? All data points to the fact that Asians acceptance rate is lower compared to students of other races. Is the concern it would get exposed?

There are many middle schools with extremely low numbers of Asians. Thus we observe the Asian acceptance rate proportionally decreases now that some schools with very few Asians send 1.5% of their kids.

You have to understand that acceptance is divided by the new expanded total class size, so it's a simple equation of proportion that Asian acceptance rate must decrease. It can only stay the same if Asians significantly increased their number of applications.

If Asian families would move to all the middle schools where there currently are very few Asians instead of concentrating at Rocky Run and Carson, then we would see Asians increase in percentage again.

Perhaps, but that involves a lot of assumptions.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

2022 data
https://thebullelephant.com/tjhsst-admission-stats-class-of-2022/

Why doesnt FCPS disclose the applicant count by race now, like they always did before admissions change? All data points to the fact that Asians acceptance rate is lower compared to students of other races. Is the concern it would get exposed?

We do have the data for class of 2025. The acceptance rate for Asian applicants (19%) was higher than average (18%) and most other groups (13-17%), but not as high as Hispanic applicants (21%).

ACCEPTANCE RATE
Asian 19%
Black 14%
Hispanic 21%
White 17%
Multiracial/Other* 13%
ALL 18%

[Anonymous]

In many years someone FOIA's the microdata on TJ applicants. Is someone doing that this year?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

2022 data
https://thebullelephant.com/tjhsst-admission-stats-class-of-2022/

Why doesnt FCPS disclose the applicant count by race now, like they always did before admissions change? All data points to the fact that Asians acceptance rate is lower compared to students of other races. Is the concern it would get exposed?

At the time of selection, it's unknown since it's race-blind, which is a matter of law in the US.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

2022 data
https://thebullelephant.com/tjhsst-admission-stats-class-of-2022/

Why doesnt FCPS disclose the applicant count by race now, like they always did before admissions change? All data points to the fact that Asians acceptance rate is lower compared to students of other races. Is the concern it would get exposed?

We do have the data for class of 2025. The acceptance rate for Asian applicants (19%) was higher than average (18%) and most other groups (13-17%), but not as high as Hispanic applicants (21%).

ACCEPTANCE RATE
Asian 19%
Black 14%
Hispanic 21%
White 17%
Multiracial/Other* 13%
ALL 18%

I'm guessing those few Hispanic students who apply to this race-blind process are especially strong and motivated.