Trump Announces an Act of War

On May 22, 1967, then Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser announced a blockade of the Straits of Tiran, which provides entry to the Gulf of Aqaba and passage to the Israeli port of Eilat. Two weeks later, the Israelis launched air strikes against Egypt, initiating the Six-Day War. After the war, U.S. President Lyndon Johnson would say:

If a single act of folly was more responsible for this explosion than any other, it was the arbitrary and dangerous announced decision that the Straits of Tiran would be closed. The right of innocent, maritime passage must be preserved for all nations.

In March of this year, cult leader, convicted felon, and failed President Donald Trump authorized the bombing of Houthi targets in Yemen. The Houthis had been disrupting shipping in the Red Sea in solidarity with the Palestinians of Gaza. In a Signal chat that included The Atlantic editor Jeffrey Goldberg, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth wrote that "Restoring Freedom of Navigation, a core national interest" was one of two justifications for the attacks (the second was the reestablishment of deterrence).

"Freedom of Navigation," or the right of ships flying the flag of any sovereign state to not suffer interference from other states when in international waters, is enshrined in Article 87(1)a of the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. This is a legal principle that the United States has long supported. Indeed, as shown above, the U.S. and other countries have gone to war to protect freedom of navigation.

Yesterday, in a Truth Social "truth," Trump announced his intention to interfere with the freedom of navigation of oil tankers to or from Venezuela. This is a clear violation of international law. More specifically, Trump wrote that he was initiating "A TOTAL AND COMPLETE BLOCKADE OF ALL SANCTIONED OIL TANKERS going into, and out of, Venezuela." A blockade is an act of war and, therefore, Trump has disclosed his plan to start a war with Venezuela. In what ways that war may expand has not been revealed. Regardless, by engaging in an act of war that has not been authorized by Congress, Trump is violating U.S. law. Trump, who has attempted to rule as a king since returning to office, apparently now wants to act as an emperor as well, extending his realm to South America.

As has become usual for Trump, the full text of his "truth" is crazy. Here it is in its entirety:

Venezuela is completely surrounded by the largest Armada ever assembled in the History of South America. It will only get bigger, and the shock to them will be like nothing they have ever seen before — Until such time as they return to the United States of America all of the Oil, Land, and other Assets that they previously stole from us. The illegitimate Maduro Regime is using Oil from these stolen Oil Fields to finance themselves, Drug Terrorism, Human Trafficking, Murder, and Kidnapping. For the theft of our Assets, and many other reasons, including Terrorism, Drug Smuggling, and Human Trafficking, the Venezuelan Regime has been designated a FOREIGN TERRORIST ORGANIZATION. Therefore, today, I am ordering A TOTAL AND COMPLETE BLOCKADE OF ALL SANCTIONED OIL TANKERS going into, and out of, Venezuela. The Illegal Aliens and Criminals that the Maduro Regime has sent into the United States during the weak and inept Biden Administration, are being returned to Venezuela at a rapid pace. America will not allow Criminals, Terrorists, or other Countries, to rob, threaten, or harm our Nation and, likewise, will not allow a Hostile Regime to take our Oil, Land, or any other Assets, all of which must be returned to the United States, IMMEDIATELY. Thank you for your attention to this matter!

DONALD J. TRUMP

PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Trump's first sentence suggests ignorance of the reality of the U.S. deployment. Venezuela is vaguely triangular-shaped, with two sides having land borders. U.S. ships are deployed in the waters adjoining the third side, but an "armada" cannot "completely surround" a country that only has one sea border. Moreover, once the U.S. fleet is capable of stopping oil tankers, any additional size is of little matter unless it is used for other purposes. Therefore, Trump is either making a hollow brag about the size of the "armada" or he is foreshadowing additional military action. Given his repeated statements that the U.S. would strike targets on land, it seems the second interpretation is more likely to be correct. Trump appears to be suggesting that his own version of "shock and awe" is coming.

Trump then says that Venezuela must return "all of the Oil, Land, and other Assets that they previously stole from us." While Trump does not explain exactly what assets these are, today in Forbes senior contributor Robert Rapier suggests that Trump is referring to 2007 expropriations of U.S. oil assets by former Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez. As Rapier writes, "ConocoPhillips pursued international arbitration for years and ultimately won multiple awards" which Venezuela has refused to pay. However, the company has been able to recover some funds through the seizure of Venezuelan assets held abroad. The main takeaway from this is that Trump is starting a war to protect the financial interests of a large oil company rather than clear national interests.

Trump goes on to order the blockade and then engages in some repetitive claims about the regime of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Trump also says that the Maduro government has been designated as a "foreign terrorist organization." He declares that we "will not allow a Hostile Regime to take our Oil," which is an interesting way to describe oil that is in Venezuelan territory. Trump concludes by saying these assets must be returned to the United States. It is unclear whether Trump believes the expropriated assets rightfully belong to the U.S. government or to U.S.-based oil companies. In Trump's mind, there may not be a difference. At any rate, how many Americans believe that U.S. blood and treasure should be sacrificed on behalf of oil companies?

A big question is exactly what is Trump up to with this endeavor? For months, the U.S. has been bombing boats in the Caribbean Sea and eastern Pacific Ocean that Trump has claimed are smuggling fentanyl to the United States. However, almost no fentanyl comes from Venezuela, and administration briefings to Congress have revealed that the shipments are more likely to be cocaine headed to Europe. Trump's word simply cannot be trusted. Moreover, Trump shows no evidence of giving this issue much thought. His days are spent hovering over designs for his White House ballroom and other White House renovations. Trump has even expressed a desire to take over three public golf courses in Washington, D.C. and revamp them. Ballrooms and golf courses are much closer to Trump's heart than Venezuela.

On the other hand, a war in Venezuela would serve the interests of three top administration figures. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has obsessed over foreign students in the U.S., eagerly trying to deport as many as possible, but his other interest has been regime change in Venezuela. Politico reported last month that Rubio "is a main architect of the administration’s Venezuela strategy" and that "Rubio has long sought to push out Maduro." The article suggests that successfully removing Maduro would boost Rubio's stature in a potential 2028 presidential primary. Therefore, Rubio may well be making policy decisions based on what will strengthen him the most in the post-Trump future.

The second administration official who has an interest in a possible military conflict in Venezuela is Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. Hegseth is a buffoon who strongly values image over substance. He has stressed "warrior ethos" within the military and vowed that he would fight wars to win, apparently unlike previous defense secretaries. Hegseth would love nothing more than the opportunity to flex his macho credentials. The opportunity to be photographed in front of a burning Venezuelan village would probably be too much for Hegseth to pass up. More practically, what good is building the world's strongest military if you don't use it? At some point, the giant Pentagon budget has to be justified. The bottom line, however, is that Hegseth's insecurities over his own masculinity probably motivate him to support a war more than anything.

The third official is Stephen Miller, the architect of Trump's deportation policy. Miller is a strong advocate of invoking the Alien Enemies Act, a law that provides for mass deportations during wartime. Trump has already invoked the AEA with regard to Venezuelan migrants in the United States. However, multiple courts have halted this action because of the simple fact that the U.S. is not at war with Venezuela. Obviously, starting a war would resolve that issue. Miller could immediately deport Venezuelans under the authority of the AEA. Moreover, he might be able to justify the deportations of migrants from other Latin American countries by arguing that a state of war justifies their deportations even if their native countries are not directly involved in the war.

My guess is that what is happening is less the result of Trump's desires and more of a case of him acquiescing to the wishes of his three powerful officials. However, Trump may not have completely bought into their plans. Trump has repeatedly engaged in a pattern of behavior in which he instigates a crisis, and then takes credit for resolving that crisis. Trump may be escalating things with Venezuela in order to cause Maduro to submit. Exactly what "submission" means in this context is not clear. It could simply mean Maduro trying to control the export of drugs and movement of migrants and, possibly, providing payments to U.S. oil companies (from which Trump will certainly take a cut), or it could mean more than that. For instance, the award of oil concessions to U.S. companies (again, with Trump getting a share). In a more extreme case, it might require Maduro to step down. The harsher the required submission, the more likely that military action will be required to extract it.

However, if things get out of control, the situation could turn badly quickly. What Trump is currently doing echoes the worst aspects of U.S. involvement in the region. Deposing Maduro on behalf of ConocoPhillips is not far off from the U.S. overthrow of Jacobo Árbenz in Guatemala on behalf of United Fruit in 1954. Such an action would likely provoke popular opposition in many countries of the region and could destabilize neighboring states. Trump has already made threats that Colombia is next.

Trump has been a lawless president at home and now suggests that he will be a lawless emperor abroad. He has announced that the U.S. will engage in an act of war that has not been authorized by Congress. Blockading Venezuela's oil is illegal under international law and will likely upset some U.S. allies. In addition, the action will probably cause a spike in oil prices. Trump has been promising $2 a gallon gasoline, a target that is far from having been met. Causing an increase in current prices will be another case of Trump abandoning his promises to his MAGA followers and acting against the "America First" MAGA philosophy. U.S. officials have spent decades denying that they would go to war for oil. Trump, on the other hand, says that he will do exactly that.