Trump Abandons the Grassroots

Cult leader, convicted felon, and failed President Donald Trump rode a wave of devotion among his cult followers to power. His popularity among the MAGA movement gave him a base of support that was practically unrivaled. But in his second term in office, Trump seems less interested in that grassroots movement and instead is relying on the institutions of government as the source of his power. Trump has seemingly abandoned his role as a grassroots leader and, instead, exerted power through his control of government.

Trump has transitioned from primarily being a grassroots populist to an authoritarian leader whose power flows from his control of government institutions rather than his devoted followers. During his quest for the presidency, Trump relied on his dominance among grassroots MAGAs. This is a group that was so devoted to Trump that they literally stormed the Capitol Building on his behalf. Trump not only benefitted from his supporters' votes, but used them to threaten other politicians and force them to submit to his will. Elected Republicans were well aware that crossing Trump could result in a primary challenge and a likely election defeat. But now, little more than 10 months into his second term, Trump has less need for his mass of followers and, instead, is relying on his control of the government as the basis of his power.

Due to the fervor of his supporters, Trump not only returned to the presidency but cowed Speaker of the House Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune into subservience. Similarly, a large number of Republican House Members and Senators tied their boats to Trump. The result is a legislative branch that no longer acts like a separate but equal partner, but rather one that is led by the President. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries recently made this point when he referred to Johnson as the "Vice Speaker". The House is de facto led by Trump with Johnson simply doing his bidding. Meanwhile, the Supreme Court, that has three Trump appointees among its members, has almost entirely acquiesced to Trump. The result is that Trump has almost total control of the government.

Trump's near-complete control of government is, perhaps, best illustrated by the constant treks to the White House by corporate leaders. At one time, they might meet with Congressional leaders to lobby on behalf of their interests. Today, they show up at the White House laden with gifts for the President. Trump uses the tools of government to impose outcomes that benefit him. For instance, Netflix recently won a bidding war to buy Warner Bros. Discovery. However, Trump is likely to use government powers of antitrust enforcement to either prevent the purchase or to impose conditions acceptable to him. Another contender for Warner Bros. Discovery is Paramount CEO David Ellison, who has announced a hostile takeover attempt. Ellison recently led the merger of Skydance Media and Paramount Global, a deal that was approved by the Federal Communications Commission only after Paramount took several steps to appease Trump. Among those actions was to cancel the The Late Show with Stephen Colbert, a show that Trump had repeatedly criticized. In addition, as NPR reported:

Paramount paid $16 million to resolve a lawsuit filed by Trump as a private individual against CBS and 60 Minutes. Skydance CEO David Ellison promised to eliminate all U.S.-based DEI programs at Paramount and to create a new ombudsman to field complaints of ideological bias in news coverage. Skydance has not denied Trump's assertions that the network will run $20 million worth of public service announcements consistent with his ideological beliefs.

In years past, a merger of the sort Ellison sought required a team of top lawyers who could maneuver through complex legal processes and convince regulators that the proposal fell within the bounds of what was allowed. Today, only a company CEO who is willing to offer concessions to Trump is needed.

Getting back to the Netflix purchase of Warner Bros., Ellison appears to be attempting to repeat his tactics that were successful in the earlier merger. The Wall Street Journal reports that after Netflix was announced as the winning bidder for Warner Bros., Larry Ellison, David's father and the co-founder of Oracle, called Trump and told him that the transaction would hurt competition. WSJ further reported that:

During a visit to Washington in recent days, David Ellison offered assurances to Trump administration officials that if he bought Warner, he’d make sweeping changes to CNN, a common target of President Trump’s ire, people familiar with the matter said. Trump has told people close to him that he wants new ownership of CNN as well as changes to CNN programming.

In addition, Ellison has brought Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law, into the deal. When Trump was asked about the Netflix purchase of Warner Bros., he said that "I'll be involved in that decision." This was a clear indication that the outcome would be decided by Trump rather than regulators. The combination of promised concessions as well as the opportunity for a family member to benefit will likely have considerably more importance to Trump than mere laws.

The Wall Street Journal also reported recently that Masayoshi Son, the billionaire CEO of SoftBank, is close to finalizing a deal with the Trump administration to build Trump-branded industrial parks around the country. The facilities would be built on federal land using Japanese government money but would be owned by the U.S. government. Trump, as the MAGA leader, once railed against communism and socialism, but now wants to make the U.S. government a factory owner. This completely aligns with Trump's current interest in building his own power and prestige.

On the other hand, Trump has shown a distinct lack of interest in the issues that matter to his voting base. Trump long demanded the release of the Epstein files, an issue of top importance to many MAGAs. However, once in office, Trump opposed the release of the files, creating considerable anger among the MAGA base. In addition, he paid scant attention to rising food prices, even calling the issue of affordability a "hoax." While U.S. farmers suffered, Trump bailed out Argentina and helped Argentinian farmers. The man who brags about stopping wars and covets the Nobel Peace Prize is blowing up boats without due process and threatening war with Venezuela. Trump has shown almost no interest in healthcare other than some incomprehensible statements such as not wanting to give funds to insurance companies but rather giving it to individuals who will, in turn, give it to insurance companies. MAGA voters are likely to suffer most of all from expected increases in the cost of health insurance, but Trump has no interest in the topic. Trump can no longer credibly claim to be "America First."

As Trump has shifted his attention away from grassroots interests towards deals with billionaires and corporations, his lack of concern for his voting base has not gone unnoticed. Trump is loosing the influence that he once had over MAGA voters. At one time is was common for Trump to brag about the elections that he had swayed to his favorite candidate. These days, Trump is pretty quiet. For instance, Trump endorsed Jack Ciattarelli, the Republican candidate for governor of New Jersey. In November, Ciattarelli lost to Democrat Mikie Sherrill by 14 points. Last night, Republican Emilio González who was endorsed by Trump, lost the race for mayor of Miami to Democrat Eileen Higgins. Higgins is the first Democrat to win the office in 30 years.

Trump once derived his power from his legion of devoted followers. These days, however, Trump doesn't seem to care much about those supporters. Some would say that Trump never cared about them and that they were nothing but a necessary evil from his point of view. Now in office, Trump is devoting himself to building his personal power through the tools of government. He no longer needs his grassroots supporters. Who needs voters when you control the Department of Justice, the FCC, the Treasury Department, and the Department of Commerce? Trump's interests are cutting deals with billionaires, building a White House ballroom, and converting the White House into a version of Mar-a-Lago. Grassroots MAGAs are on their own.