Who is Running U.S. Foreign Policy

I'll start today's post with a question that should have a fairly simple answer: who is responsible for the United States’ foreign policy? In any other administration, the answer would almost certainly be the Secretary of State. But in the case of the administration of cult leader, convicted felon, and failed President Donald Trump, the answer is much more complex. As best as can be determined, U.S. foreign policy is being controlled by a group of rivals who spend almost as much time attempting to sabotage each other as they do working to advance American goals.

No presidential administration has ever consisted of nothing but ideological clones of the president. There have always been differing views and multiple political factions among the top officials of any American government. But in the Trump administration, factionalism is magnified by Trump's leadership style. Trump, like many of his MAGA followers, has a deep distrust of government bureaucracy. Trump tends to reject expertise in general, preferring to rely on trusted individuals regardless of their lack of credentials or potential conflicts of interest. This is especially apparent when it comes to foreign policy.

On paper, Secretary of State Marco Rubio should be the most prominent figure when it comes to foreign policy. However, Rubio has generally been inept. A neoconservative in an administration of alleged anti-interventionist America Firsters, Rubio has always been something of an outsider. He was the Senate's hope to be the "adult in the room" within the Trump administration. Instead, he has mostly been ignored. I used to refer to Rubio as the Secretary for Deportations because he seemed to spend the majority of his time pouring over rosters of international students attending U.S. universities in hopes of identifying those that he could deport. More recently, Rubio seems to be busying himself preparing for an invasion of Venezuela.

Most of U.S. foreign policy has been led by Steve Witkoff, a real estate investor who is friends with Trump. Trump brought Witkoff into the administration as a special envoy to the Middle East. However, Witkoff soon became Trump's pick for leading almost all negotiations. Witkoff has been a key figure in U.S. negotiations with Russia over the war in Ukraine despite having no foreign policy or diplomatic experience. Witkoff has often been joined by Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner. Kushner has no formal role in the administration but has nevertheless been involved in high-level negotiations. Both Witkoff and Kushner recently met with Russian representatives in Miami to discuss prospects for peace with Ukraine.

Vice President and reply guy, JD Vance, seems to be sticking his fingers into foreign policy as well. One of the latest additions to the Ukraine-Russia negotiating team is Secretary of the Army, Daniel Driscoll. Driscoll and Vance are friends who have known each other since they attended Yale Law School together. Later, Driscoll served as a senior advisor to Vance. Like Witkoff, Driscoll lacks previous foreign policy experience.

Broadly, we might see Rubio representing an interventionist, neoconservative viewpoint, Driscoll and Vance supporting a non-interventionist, American First agenda, and Witkoff taking a non-ideological "let's just make a deal" position. Moreover, Witkoff and Kushner routinely mix business considerations with diplomatic negotiations. The New York Times recently reported on Witkoff's son Alex, who, as the paper says, "was quietly soliciting billions of dollars from some of the same governments whose representatives were involved in peace talks with his father." Where the interaction of these factions has become most apparent recently is during the Russia-Ukraine peace process.

On November 18, Axios published a "scoop" about a secret plan that the U.S. was developing in consultation with Russia to end Russia's war with Ukraine. Axios reported that the “28-point U.S. plan is inspired by President Trump's successful push for a deal in Gaza." The report also said that "Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff is leading the drafting of the plan..." Once again, it appeared that Rubio had been sidelined in favor of Witkoff. Importantly, the plan was developed without Ukraine's involvement.

Intriguingly, the Axios report appeared to be a leak that surprised the U.S. officials. Witkoff, responding to the Axios article, accidentally publicly tweeted what was supposed to have been a private message. He wrote, "He must have got this from K," referring to Kirill Dmitriev, a Russian envoy with whom Witkoff had been discussing the plan. Witkoff quickly deleted the tweet, but not before it had been screen-captured many times. The Axios article created a storm of controversy because the plan that was disclosed was entirely pro-Russia. Ukrainian officials were understandably angered.

Driscoll was in Kiev negotiating with the Ukrainians and trying to obtain concessions from them in order to reach a peace plan. Over the weekend, Rubio flew to Geneva, where talks with Ukrainian and European officials would take place. Witkoff and Kushner also travelled to Geneva. It was apparent that the American position regarding the 28-point plan was divided. According to the New York Times, "While Mr. Trump had embraced the proposed deal as the near-final word, Mr. Rubio was talking about it as an opening gambit."

At that time, a bipartisan group of U.S. Senators was attending the Halifax International Security Forum in Halifax, Nova Scotia, and held a telephone call with Rubio, who was then in Switzerland. Following the call, the group — which consisted of Republican, Democratic, and even an Independent senator — held a press conference. During that event, the entire group agreed that Rubio had told them that the plan was a Russian "wish list" and not the Americans' actual proposal. During the press conference, Republican Mike Rounds said that the "administration was not responsible for this release in its current form" and that it "looked more like it was written in Russian to begin with."

The State Department Deputy Spokesperson immediately reacted on X, calling the Senators' allegations "blatantly false" and claiming that the plan "was authored by the United States, with input from both the Russians and Ukrainians." Rubio himself also weighed in, saying the "peace proposal was authored by the U.S." Therefore, a bipartisan group of U.S. Senators all either misheard or were lying about what Rubio had told them on the telephone, or Rubio was not telling the truth.

The Times also reported that "By Sunday night Mr. Rubio appeared to have wrestled back control of the negotiations." According to the Times, Rubio had taken the original list of 28 points and whittled it down to 20. He also dropped the Thanksgiving Day deadline that Trump had imposed for acceptance of the plan. In a press conference, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov suggested that Moscow could reject the White House’s latest Ukraine peace deal.

Whether Rubio really had taken control of the negotiations or not is not entirely clear. Administration politics in Washington is played in lots of ways. Leaks to the press are a key tool. The original Axios article repeatedly quoted Kirill Dmitriev, and Witkoff obviously believed him to be behind the leak. The article depicted Witkoff as leading the negotiations. While Rubio was suggesting that the 28-point plan was a starting point for Russian demands, Witkoff took ownership of it and, along with Trump, acted as if it were a near-final document.

Then, yesterday, there was another leak, this one rather extraordinary. Somehow, Bloomberg received an audiotape of a phone conversation between Witkoff and Yuri Ushakov, Vladimir Putin’s most senior foreign-policy adviser. Bloomberg then published a transcript of the call. Ushakov began the call by asking whether a call between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin would be useful. Witkoff eagerly supported the idea. Witkoff then turned to advising Ushakov how best to proceed on the call. Witkoff suggested that Putin begin by praising Trump and saying that Russians "respect that he is a man of peace". Witkoff then went on to say, "I’m even thinking that maybe we set out like a 20-point peace proposal, just like we did in Gaza." Witkoff went on to repeat his suggestion for a plan and stress how useful he thought it would be. He also offered ideas that he thought should be included, saying "Now, me to you, I know what it’s going to take to get a peace deal done: Donetsk and maybe a land swap somewhere." The clear implication of the transcript is that Witkoff is asking the Russians for a 20-point plan and advising them on how to best sell the plan to Trump.

As it turned out, the plan would be 28 rather than 20 points, and the leak to Axios appears to have been a Russian attempt to avoid having it watered down prior to negotiations. It seems to have served that purpose at least temporarily. Trump immediately embraced the plan. While Rubio was privately saying that it was just a list of Russian demands, publicly he was forced to adhere to the administration’s position that the document had been developed by the Americans. The leak of the phone call is clearly an attempt to discredit Witkoff and, therefore, presumably came from sources supporting Rubio. The leak suggests that the plan was Witkoff's idea and makes him responsible for its one-sided nature. If Rubio and Witkoff are fighting, this was a point for Rubio.

Based on what we now know, Witkoff and Kushner were perfectly comfortable allowing Russia to develop a peace plan which Witkoff would present as his own. Witkoff also coached the Russians as to how best to handle Trump, and Trump immediately supported the plan that was leaked. It would be interesting to know whether Trump knew that the plan had been drafted by the Russians. Speaking to reporters before boarding Air Force One to Florida, Trump had changed his position and now referred to the original 28-point plan as "just a map". He stood behind Witkoff saying that the transcript simply showed normal negotiating tactics.

After Rubio's intervention, the original plan was modified in ways to be acceptable to Ukraine and Europe. However, the plan may no longer be acceptable to Russia. The problem facing the Americans is that it is obvious to everyone that Trump and Witkoff are extremely accommodating of Russia's interests. Forcing Russia to change its positions would be a challenge, even if Trump wanted to attempt it, and he doesn't appear to have any such interest. On the other hand, Trump is able to put immense pressure on Ukraine. Therefore, the Russians likely know that they can simply stick to their guns and wait for Trump to force Ukrainian concessions. Rubio and others in the government appear to be trying to prevent that scenario and instead attempt to negotiate Russian concessions.

Rubio has been largely absent from a major role in U.S. foreign policy. That appears to have changed over the weekend when he asserted himself in Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations. Witkoff, who had repeatedly outshone Rubio, has been dealt a major setback. Ultimately, Trump will have the final say about U.S. policies, but he is easily influenced by others. Most importantly, Trump simply wants a deal; he doesn't care about the details. It will be interesting to see if any further shoes drop in the Rubio/Witkoff battle.