Trump and the Coal Industry

Back in August I wrote a post about cult leader, convicted felon, and failed President Donald Trump's hatred of renewable energy, particularly wind power. The basis of Trump's antagonism appears to be a failed battle to prevent wind turbines from being built within sight of his Balmedie, Scotland golf course. The other side of this particular coin is that Trump loves coal power. This week, multiple U.S. departments announced a coordinated plan to "Reinvigorate and Expand America’s Coal Industry". As is the case with most Trump initiatives, this one is poorly considered and moves the country in the wrong direction.

The United States is facing a period of increased energy demand. According to a recent study by ICF, "U.S. electricity demand is expected to grow by 25% by 2030 and by 78% by 2050, compared to 2023." The Department of Energy says that "Rising electricity demand is mainly driven by data center expansion and the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) applications, domestic manufacturing growth, and electrification of different sectors." This increased demand will also result in increased electricity prices for U.S. consumers. ICF predicts that "For residential customers, electricity rates could increase by 15% to 40% by 2030, depending on the market." The U.S. clearly needs to invest in electrical production.

The obvious choice for electrical production is renewable energy. The investment bank Lazard recently completed a report on the cost of energy. According to Lazard's analysis, the generation cost for utility-scale solar power ranges from $38-$48 per MWh. Onshore wind ranges from $37-$86. Offshore wind ranges from $70-$157. In contrast, coal ranges from $71-$173. Natural gas prices fluctuate and can peak as high as $251, but the range of a combined cycle is $48-$109. What this shows is that utility-scale solar and onshore wind are the most price-effective options. Offshore wind is price-competitive with coal and can at times be a better option than gas. Therefore, without even considering the environmental benefits, on price alone, renewable energy production should be prioritized. The Trump administration, not surprisingly, is doing exactly the opposite.

In an announcement this week, the Department of Energy committed to spending $350 million to "recommission or modernize coal power units". Another $275 million will be spent on a variety of projects aimed at incentivizing the use of coal power. On the same day, the Department of the Interior announced that it was opening 13.1 million acres of federal land for coal leasing. Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum also lowered the royalty rate for coal, meaning that Americans would earn less for the exploitation of public resources. A third coal-related announcement on the same day was made by the Environmental Protection Agency. EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin extended the deadlines for meeting a number of regulations, including a limit on wastewater from coal-fired power plants and reductions in pollutants that cause haze, such as sulfur dioxide. The strategy of the Trump administration is to attempt to make coal more competitive by providing direct subsidies, allowing cheaper access to publicly owned resources, and approving increased air and water pollution. None of this appears to be in the public interest, especially with the availability of more cost-effective and cleaner alternatives.

As David Gelles wrote in the New York Times, the Trump administration’s efforts might extend the lives of some coal-fired plants, but "the moves are unlikely to change the long-term trajectory for coal, which is being displaced by cheaper and cleaner sources of energy, including natural gas, solar, and wind power." In fact, some electrical producers would like to get rid of existing coal plants but are being ordered to keep them open by the Trump administration. The New York Times reported back in June on two plants that were scheduled to be closed but were forced to keep them open when Trump declared an "energy emergency." "The costs to keep the plants open, which could total tens of millions of dollars, are expected to fall on consumers."

Trump's interest in coal is, like a lot of things, a result of his preference for image over reality. Trump loves to be surrounded by “big, strong men." For instance, in April, Trump stood in front of a group of miners dressed in work clothes and hard hats while he signed an executive order promoting the coal industry. In typical Trump style, he rambled on about "Beautiful guys. I didn’t want to have any arm wrestling contests with any of them, I can tell you that. They’re good strong guys. That’s what they want to do. They love to dig coal. That's what they want to do." Trump continued, "They don't want to do gidgets [sic] and widgets and wadgets [sic]. They don't want to build cell phones with their big strong hands." What Trump doesn't realize is that the traditional job of a coal miner is rapidly going away and is not coming back. Underground mining is being replaced in many cases by mountaintop removal that relies on mechanization instead of men digging with pickaxes. Trump is stuck in the past.

Coal mining today does not employ large numbers of people. According to the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, coal mining currently employs roughly 40,000 people. This is down from over double that number in 2012. In contrast, green energy investments created over 400,000 jobs in just two years.

The real impact of the Trump administration on coal miners has been to reduce health and safety measures. As ABC News reports, "Trump's administration has decimated the National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health, or NIOSH, the federal institute that protects miners from black lung, and paused enforcement of a new safety rule that would lower the level of silica dust in the mines." As a result, miners are endangered from two sides. Lower safety regulations result in miners being exposed to more harmful substances, and reduced medical attention means that dangerous health conditions are either not caught early or not caught at all. The net result is likely to be an increase in miners who are sick and dying.

Because Trump hates the sight of wind turbines and loves the image of "big strong men," he is prioritizing coal over renewable energy. Such policies fail to make sense by almost any metric. Coal is more expensive. Coal is more harmful to the environment and the health of its employees. Coal is a dying industry, which the amount of assistance that Trump is offering cannot save. Not even electricity producers want to keep coal plants around. But this is what happens when a cognitively impaired old man with the mentality of a toddler is surrounded by sycophants whose primary concern is staying on his good side. Our country will continue to suffer under the rule of a mad king.