The Israel Attack on Hamas Officials in Qatar

Yesterday, Israel launched a missile attack against the leadership of Hamas based in Qatar. The attack appears to have failed to take out its intended targets, instead killing a member of Qatar's internal security force, the son of Khalil al-Hayya, Hamas’s chief negotiator, al-Hayya's office manager, and three other people affiliated with Hamas. The attack came as cult leader, convicted felon, and failed President Donald Trump was making what he has described as his last attempt to achieve a ceasefire and an exchange of prisoners in Gaza. This was clearly an attempt by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to prevent negotiations of Trump's proposals from continuing.

The day after the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack on Israel, I wrote an analysis explaining that Netanyahu was beholden to extremist members of his cabinet and, as a result, had prioritized the deployment of Israel's military in a manner that addressed the interests of those extremists. This created a security vacuum that Hamas exploited. At the time, Netanyahu faced legal threats due to corruption charges and was hoping to neuter Israel's justice system as a way to protect himself. Achieving that goal required the cooperation of his extremist cabinet members, hence his willingness to accede to their interests. Once war in Gaza began, the fighting gave Netanyahu an excuse to avoid the legal reckoning that awaited him. The continued war also provided time for Netanyahu to work his machinations aimed at eliminating the threat from Israel's justice system. As I explained in my one-year follow-up post to the October 7 attack:

Netanyahu has two choices: 1) he can engage in endless war, using the excuse of a national emergency to avoid facing justice, or 2) he can completely defeat Israel's enemies, heralding a period of peace and prosperity and, hence, be celebrated as Israel's savior.

What was true then remains true today. It is simply untenable at this time for Netanyahu to see the war end in a negotiated peace. He is currently engaged in a political battle over his attempt to fire Israel's attorney general and replace her with a lackey that will drop the charges against him. While he remains unsuccessful in achieving this goal, the fighting must continue. How do you stop peace negotiations? One way is to kill the negotiators.

The walls have been closing in on Netanyahu. He desperately enlisted Trump to help in his campaign against Israel's justice system, resulting in Trump "truthing" on his Truth Social social media network that "Bibi Netanyahu’s trial should be CANCELLED, IMMEDIATELY". But rather than going away, Netanyahu's legal troubles are multiplying. Several of his top aids are embroiled in a controversy involving payments from, ironically, Qatar. Just two days before the attack on Qatar, an Israeli state commission of inquiry found that Netanyahu had "endangered the security" of Israel through his involvement in a corrupt purchase of submarines from Germany. Daily, the streets of major Israeli cities are full of protesters demanding Netanyahu's ouster. Now is not the time for Netanyahu to allow the war to end.

The threat that the negotiations might succeed is real. For some time, Netanyahu has engaged in a game of pulling the rug out from underneath Hamas. Each time that negotiations have made progress, Netanyahu has changed the terms. Most recently, after Hamas had accepted a previous U.S.-supported proposal, Netanyahu rejected the idea and began supporting the so-called "Witkoff Plan." This was actually a Netanyahu idea for a staged exchange of prisoners that Netanyahu named after Trump's Middle East negotiator and de facto Secretary of State, Steve Witkoff. In May, Hamas agreed to that plan. Netanyahu went weeks before responding and, when he did, ignored the proposal and, instead, vowed to eliminate Hamas. In August, Hamas agreed to a variation of the Witkoff Plan proposed by Qatar and Egypt. This time, Netanyahu and Trump, who had originally pushed for the staged formula, switched to supporting a comprehensive agreement — something that Hamas had originally supported. On September 7, Witkoff sent a new proposal to Hamas based on the most recent formula supported by Trump. Trump claimed that Israel had already agreed to the proposal. Massive pressure was being put on Hamas to accept the plan, and Netanyahu had to be concerned that he could not simply change his terms again.

This is where things get a bit murky. The official story, primarily being promoted by the U.S. State Department and Israeli foreign ministry stenographer Barak Ravid, is that Israel initiated the attack on Qatar without Trump's knowledge. Prior to the attack, the Israelis provided a vague notice to the U.S., but there were not enough details to alert U.S. officials as to what was actually happening. The U.S. military then informed Trump that Israel had launched an attack, but by the time the Israelis were contacted, the missiles had already been launched. Trump says that he then told Witkoff to inform the Qataris. The Qataris say that by the time they heard anything from Witkoff, they could already hear explosions. There are reasons to believe that this story is not entirely true.

While it is believable that Netanyahu acted on the theory that it is better to beg forgiveness than to ask for permission, doing so requires a number of assumptions. Primarily, it assumes that begging forgiveness will be successful. One would think that if Netanyahu, acting against Trump's will, had actually come close to blowing up (literally) Trump's ceasefire proposal and, perhaps along with it, Trump's hopes for a Nobel Peace Prize, forgiveness would be hard to come by. Instead, some sort of punishment might be in store. Because there is no indication of any such thing, we must either conclude that Trump is not actually very angry or that Trump is a paper tiger unwilling or unable to do anything to Netanyahu.

There is no logical world in which Trump can be seen as condoning an attack on Qatar. Qatar hosts the largest U.S. military base in the Middle East. The country recently provided Trump with a free Boeing 747 valued at $400 million that is due to become the new Air Force One. Qatar has played a key role as a negotiator between the United States and a number of other countries, including Afghanistan and Iran. For that matter, Qatar has become the center of negotiations with Hamas at the U.S.’s request. If relations with Qatar were to deteriorate, there are any number of negative ramifications for Trump personally and the United States more broadly. Therefore, anyone involved in planning the Israeli attack would understand completely that Trump would have to have plausible deniability.

Those skeptical of Trump's claim of ignorance note that Witkoff had just given Hamas the latest negotiating proposal and was expecting a response. Therefore, the U.S. would be aware that the Hamas leadership would meet to discuss the proposal. It was during that meeting that Israel chose to attack, though apparently it had ended before the missiles arrived. Some have noted that the proposal Witkoff provided was very short and lacked important elements of a serious plan. Therefore, it may have been aimed more at provoking a meeting of the Hamas leadership than at actually leading to an agreement. In Trump's post-attack remarks, he made it very clear that he would not be sorry if Hamas leaders were eliminated. It is entirely possible that the U.S. was more involved in the attack than is being let on.

As for what happens now, it is not entirely clear. Qatar has promised some sort of response. I doubt that will be a performative attack on Israel as Iran has done. As I noted above, members of Netanyahu's staff are involved in a scandal involving payments from Qatar. My suggestion is that Qatar publicize exactly who received those payments and the reason that they were paid. If Netanyahu's direct involvement can be documented, that would be particularly interesting. Whether either Qatar or Hamas will trust U.S. negotiators again remains to be seen. Netanyahu may have achieved his goal of stymying further advances towards a prisoner exchange and ceasefire. Or, having taken his shot and missed, he may have put the ball in Hamas' court and made an agreement — one with which he is not comfortable — even more likely. Who knows which way things will go?

Both Trump and Netanyahu seem to be under the impression that killing the Hamas leaders would have advanced the chances for peace. I disagree with this suggestion. Israel has spent decades killing Hamas leaders. Just over a year ago, Israel assassinated Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas' top political leader, with a bomb in Iran. Have any of those killings led to peace or even a decrease in violence? I have observed the Middle East closely for over 40 years. If there is one thing that I have learned, it is that killing leaders who are attempting to negotiate peace does not lead to peace. Rather, it empowers those who had been saying that negotiations were futile and that the only solution is violence. The Hamas negotiators were almost killed by Israel at precisely the moment that they were discussing an agreement with Israel. Those who have suggested that any such agreement was foolish have been shown to be prescient. What Israel has done is given voice to those who prefer violence over words.