The Maine Senate Race

For the past week, I have been in Maine. Not for political reasons. I was doing touristy "Maine" things like whale watching, hiking in the Acadia National Park, and eating lobster rolls. But it was impossible to escape politics completely, especially in a place like Maine which is in the midst of one of the most closely watched U.S. Senate races in the country. So, while I still cannot claim to be an expert on Maine's politics, I do have a somewhat better informed perspective today. Moreover, with the presumptive Democratic nominee back in the news as a result of another controversy, today seems like a good day to address the topic of Maine's Senate race.

The incumbent senator, Susan Collins, has been in the Senate for almost 30 years. While she has presented herself as a moderate — characteristically expressing "concern" about Republican policies — she has rarely deviated from the Republican line, especially when it mattered. Nevertheless, Collins stands on somewhat dangerous territory. Not MAGA enough to become a favorite of cult leader, convicted felon, and failed President Donald Trump but perhaps too MAGA for Maine. As a result, Collins appears to be vulnerable. If Democrats have any hope of taking control of the Senate, defeating Collins is probably essential.

On the Democratic side, the race has been dominated by Graham Platner, a Marine veteran and oysterman. Platner has run on a left-leaning, populist, anti-establishment platform. For years now, the Democratic Party has been riven by two different theories for political success. One, generally promoted by the Democratic establishment, is based on the "triangulation" strategy promoted by former President Bill Clinton. This idea is to select moderate candidates who can appeal to moderate Republicans, spitting them off from a party that is now almost entirely dominated by Trump's MAGA cult. This strategy has had some notable successes. Last year, for instance, Abigail Spanberger and Mikie Sherrill, two moderates with national security backgrounds, were elected as governors of Virginia and New Jersey, respectively. But the strategy has also failed. Both Hillary Clinton and Kamala Harris ran as moderates — with Harris even campaigning with conservative Republican Liz Cheney — and lost to Trump.

The other theory, most notably promoted by Senator Bernie Sanders, is to take a stance closer to that of Platner's current platform. Accordingly, candidates argue that the wealthy, corporations, and the government have been working together against the interests of the masses, especially the working class. Such candidates favor raising taxes on the rich and corporations, avoiding foreign military engagements, and using the government to help normal people. This strategy has also had successes with Sanders, Senator Elizabeth Warren, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani being among the most popular politicians in the country.

The Democratic primary in Maine started off as a contest between these two theories, with Platner representing the left and Governor Janet Mills taking the moderate stance. However, Mills, despite extremely strong backing from the Democratic establishment, almost immediately flamed out. Unless there is a political earthquake that nobody sees coming, Platner will be the Democratic nominee a week from tomorrow.

Platner is showing extremely strong polling against Collins. For instance, a recent University of New Hampshire poll shows Platner with a 9-point lead over Collins. Nevertheless, many feel that Platner may not be the ideal candidate. To put it bluntly, he has more baggage than an Amtrak luggage car. At the time that he entered the race, Platner sported a tattoo generally associated with Nazis. Old Reddit posts showed a number of misogynistic, homophobic, and other distasteful opinions. Platner successfully weathered the political storms that arose in response to such disclosures. He had the tattoo replaced, he apologized for his past posts — saying that they occurred while he was suffering from PTSD due to his combat experience — and argued that he has grown considerably since then.

More recently, another controversy has arisen. Platner and Amy Gertner were married in 2023. Last year, Gertner disclosed as part of opposition research being conducted by Platner's campaign against its own candidate that she had discovered sexually explicit texts between Platner and other women sent during the early years of their marriage. Now, Platner's former campaign manager to whom Gertner made this revelation — who has since left the campaign — has made this information public. There are a number of important aspects to this issue. Unlike the earlier controversies, this one is more recent and cannot easily be blamed on Platner's PTSD. But, in his defense, Gertner says that both have been engaged in counseling and have worked through the issue. She has called media coverage of the texts "shameful." The content of the texts has not been released, and even the number of women involved is in dispute.

It is fairly obvious that neither candidate in this race is perfect. However, what may be more important than either candidate is the parities with which they are aligned. I’m reminded of the expression that when you sleep with someone, you are also sleeping with everyone that they slept with. Platner’s past is, to put it mildly, checkered. But his current associations are with the likes of Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Chris Murphy. Susan Collins, on the other hand, is in bed with Trump. I am not convinced that Collins is a good person (a former staffer of hers has repeatedly referred to Collins as a “c-word”). But even if Collins were personally a saint, she is a Trump enabler. Collins famously voted to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. While it was less controversial, she also voted to confirm Neil Gorsuch. Collins voted to acquit Trump in 2020, saying that Trump had “learned from this case”. Retrospectively, Collins was right, but not in the way that she probably expected. What Trump learned was that he would not be held accountable and, therefore, could attempt to do whatever he wants. Make no mistake about it: a vote for Collins is a vote for Trump and Trump's agenda.

A repeated concern that I hear about Platner, both in D.C. and when I was in Maine, is that his leftist persona might not be authentic. There are fears that he might turn out like Senator John Fetterman, who also ran for the Senate as a left populist but now frequently supports Trump and the Republicans. Perhaps Platner is not what he appears to be. Maybe he would be another Fetterman. I personally consider Fetterman to have been the biggest miscalculation that I have ever made and in no way want another like him in the Senate. Even so, I would rather have a Fetterman than a Collins. I can’t imagine any circumstances in which Platner could turn out to be worse than Collins.

But the politician who Platner reminds me of the most is not Fetterman, but Trump. Like Trump, Platner has a knack for translating popular anger at the government into political support. Remember Trump supporters saying that they don’t care about Trump’s tweets as long as he governs in a way that they support? Based on polling, Platner supporters don’t care about Reddit posts as long as Platner is willing to challenge the establishment. Whether they will care about sexting remains to be seen, but I suspect not. The Maine subreddit on Reddit doesn't suggest that Platner's texts will cause significant problems for him. One poster took what appears to be a popular position by writing:

So they had a marital problem and worked it through, while his former campaign manager betrayed the trust of someone to continue her political vendetta against Platner.

Another asked, "Why should anyone care about a personal relationship problem that he has already worked out with his wife?"

Another question is whether sexual indiscretions matter anymore. Bill Clinton engaged in oral sex in the White House and is still admired and welcomed by the Democratic establishment. Trump had sex with a porn star while his wife was home recovering from having given birth to their child. He then paid off the porn star and got caught lying about it. That hurt him so badly that he was elected to the presidency twice. The Republican nominee for the Senate in Texas, Ken Paxton, has had multiple affairs and is being divorced by his wife for "biblical reasons." Now voters are supposed to reach for their smelling salts because of sexting?

There is also a second issue at play. For years, voters on the left have been expected to hold their noses and vote for centrist candidates. Sanders voters were told to vote for Clinton to prevent Trump from becoming President (and, in fact, most Sanders voters complied). Similarly, Arab American and Muslim Americans were urged to ignore Harris' support for genocide in Gaza and her failure to make even remedial outreach to their communities and cast their votes for her. Now, the shoe is on the other foot. Will establishment and centrist voters prefer to see Collins in the Senate rather than Platner, knowing what that will mean for Trump? If so, the Democratic Party really has no future.

Much of the controversy about Platner appears to be taking place among people who are not able to vote in the Maine Senate race. In Maine, Platner has shown a Trump-like ability to attract crowds and gain cross-party support. Platner routinely hosts rallies with audiences in the hundreds in towns with populations in the thousands. In more populated areas, the crowds are in the thousands. Platner may not be the preference of Democrats in Washington, D.C., but he is almost certainly going to be the choice of Maine voters in next week's primary. After that, he stands a better than even chance of being their choice to represent Maine in the U.S. Senate.