Trump Threatens War against Iran

Last night, cult leader, convicted felon, and failed President Donald Trump "truthed" on his Truth Social social media network that "Wow! Gavin Newscum just dropped out of the Presidential Race!!! President DJT". California Governor Gavin Newsom, in fact, has not dropped out of the presidential race and responded by imitating Trump's posting style and writing, "WOW. THE PRESIDENT IS SUNDOWNING HARDER THAN USUAL TONIGHT!!! — GOVERNOR GCN". It is hard to know what provoked Trump's assertion about Newsom, and it could be something as simple as viewing an artificial intelligence-generated video showing Newsom withdrawing. Regardless, the "truth" remains in Trump's feed, just another example of the disconnect from reality of our current president. It is under the leadership of this dimwitted, brain-addled candidate for an assisted living facility that we are apparently about to go to war with Iran.

Since late January, the United States has been engaged in the largest deployment of military forces in the Middle East since the Iraq war. Two aircraft carrier strike groups are now in the region, and, according to Robert Pape, "the US military power now concentrated around Iran represents roughly 40–50 percent of all American air power that can be deployed globally." Trump apparently expected a show of force of this scale to be sufficient to force the Iranian regime to bend to his will. But, as Trump's Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff recently told Fox News, the Iranians have not capitulated, and now Trump is "curious as to why they haven't".

Whatever is going on between Trump and Iran — and, really, nobody knows what is going on — appears to be one of the most bizarre military adventures in history. Fitting with Trump's seeming determination to prove himself a mad king, Trump has failed to inform the public of his goals or plans. Trump has not gone to Congress — the Constitutionally authorized branch of government with the power to declare war — to seek authorization. He erratically posts on social media promises to assist Iranian protesters, threats to the Iranian leadership, and, most recently, demands that Iran cease its nuclear weapons program.

The demand regarding nuclear weapons is ironic given that on June 25, 2025, Trump issued a document titled "Iran’s Nuclear Facilities Have Been Obliterated — and Suggestions Otherwise are Fake News". The document quoted Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir as saying that, as a result of the June bombing by the U.S. of Iranian nuclear facilities, Iran's nuclear program had been set back "by years, I repeat, years." Similarly, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth was quoted as saying, "our bombing campaign obliterated Iran’s ability to create nuclear weapons." Therefore, if you believe Trump's document, Iran does not currently have a nuclear weapons program for its government to abandon.

However, setbacks to Iran's nuclear program would come as news to Witkoff, who recently stated that "They’re probably a week away from having industrial-grade bomb-making material." Witkoff does not appear to be on the same page as Trump and Hegseth, always a good thing when you are about to start a war. 

Nevertheless, exaggerated claims about Iran's nuclear program have been a repeated tactic used by those eager to get the U.S. involved in a war with Iran. As far back as 2012, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appeared at the United Nations with a cartoonish picture alleging that Iran was 90% complete in creating nuclear weapons. U.S. leaders have a history of using misinformation to justify wars in the Middle East.

What appears to have happened is that Trump, drunk on the success of his operation in Venezuela to capture the country's ruler and steal its oil, thought that he could easily intimidate Iran. It has turned out that he can't. The motivations of the Iranian rulers are as difficult to divine as Trump's. However, my guess is that, facing significant internal opposition, the Iranian government is afraid of showing weakness. The leaders are probably gambling that, if they can survive an opening salvo, Trump won't have the heart to continue a long war. They may consider that the better option.

If that is the Iranian position, it is not without justification. Consider the nearly two-month-long war on Yemen waged by the U.S. beginning in March of last year. The U.S. was never able to effectively stop missiles and drones being launched from Yemen, and even killing top leaders failed to have much impact. As soon as the U.S. ended the war, Yemeni Houthis resumed attacks on Israel. If the U.S. could not accomplish its goals in Yemen, what hope is there that it will succeed in Iran?

A major question is who really wants a U.S.-Iran war? Trump's MAGA base is traditionally anti-war. Republicans are currently having their own civil war between those such as all-around crazy person Laura Loomer, who adamantly supports Israel and hates Muslims, and podcaster Tucker Carlson, who is opposed to foreign wars and is anti-Israel. A war in Iran will only inflame that split. If a war causes oil prices to increase and/or goes poorly, it could harm Republicans’ already pretty dismal-looking midterm election prospects.

This leads to the irony that one of the larger constituencies for a war might be Democrats in Congress. U.S. Senator Mark Warner, a Democrat from Virginia, recently told Fox News that when it comes to Iran "All options need to be on the table" and that "We've got to find ways to get rid of that regime". Warner appeared to believe that Trump has not been aggressive enough. Similarly, Drop Site recently reported that the top foreign policy aide to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer told anti-war activists that:

a substantial number of Senate Democrats believed Iran ultimately needed to be dealt with militarily. But those Democrats, the aide explained, also understood that going to war again in the Middle East would be a political catastrophe. That’s precisely why they wanted Trump to be the one to do it. The hope was that Iran would take a blow and so would Trump—a win-win for Democrats.

The other obvious constituency for a war is Israel and its U.S. supporters. Netanyahu has repeatedly travelled to Washington to discuss war possibilities with Trump. The Israeli leader is a long-time supporter of such a war. Iran is basically the last obstacle standing before nearly complete Israeli hegemony in the Middle East. Eliminating Iran as a threat could be Netanyahu's salvation. He has been a disaster as Prime Minister, presiding over the October 7th catastrophe and the near total destruction of Israeli democracy. Nevertheless, he has consistently promised Israelis that he would provide security. Now having wrecked destruction on Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Assad regime in Syria, if he can knock out Iran, Netanyahu will have run the slate. No other Israeli leader will likely be able to compete with that record.

However, other U.S. allies in the region may not be particularly sanguine about such a development. Recent comments by U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee suggesting his support for Israel taking over much of the land in the Middle East based on Biblical justifications may have caused Arab countries in the region to rethink their position regarding a U.S. war with Iran. They may not consider it a good idea to leave Israel in such a position of dominance. As a result, Trump may now find himself caught between Israel and the Gulf Arab states.

For that matter, it does not appear that the entire Trump administration is onboard with a war against Iran. By my count, Axios, the Washington Post, the New York Times, and the Wall Street Journal have all been leaked stories that General Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has warned Trump that a war with Iran could result in significant U.S. casualties and could risk depleting U.S. weapons supplies. Iran has a considerable number of ballistic missiles and rockets. The U.S. armadas present a large number of targets, as do the numerous U.S. bases in the region. Add in the necessity of protecting Israel, and missile defense will be a significant challenge. Moreover, the U.S. may have to worry about Iranian allies in Iraq, Yemen, and Lebanon joining the battle. Israel is apparently sufficiently worried about attacks from Lebanon that the Israelis reportedly warned Lebanon that it would retaliate against civilian infrastructure, including Beirut's airport. Trump could very easily be lighting a fire that sets the entire region ablaze.

Because Trump doesn't bother to tell anyone his plans or to coordinate his actions, there is no possible way to plan for the aftermath. The specter of turning Iran into a failed state is unlikely to be appealing to anyone. Iran as a cornered tiger lashing out at any available target cannot be good either. If there ever was a situation in which careful planning and extensive coordination were required, this is it. Yet, Trump has no idea what he will do and, subsequently, nor does anyone else. Our traditional European allies have been alienated and, right now, are more focused on Greenland and Ukraine than they are on Iran. The U.S. will likely be going it alone in this war except for Israel. The best possible outcome may be for Iranian negotiators to agree with Trump that their nuclear capability was destroyed in June, promise not to restart it, give Witkoff exclusive rights to import Persian rugs into the United States, and promise Trump a million barrels of oil a month. Then everyone can declare victory and move on.