Another Trump TACO

The last few days might have been the peak ineptitude for cult leader, convicted felon, and failed President Donald Trump. Trump has completely mismanaged his war against Iran, essentially assuring a strategic defeat for the United States and currently mired with no plan to extricate the U.S. from the war. Trump is caught in a cycle of repeated promises of progress towards an agreement with Iran, threats to escalate the conflict, and embarrassing backdowns. Nobody is taking Trump seriously anymore. Even the U.S.'s Arab allies in the Gulf appear to have given up on Trump, despite making significant financial investments in him, both in his personal capacity and as the U.S. President.

The current round of incompetence began on Saturday evening when Trump posted the following on his Truth Social social media network:

I will soon be reviewing the plan that Iran has just sent to us, but can’t imagine that it would be acceptable in that they have not yet paid a big enough price for what they have done to Humanity, and the World, over the last 47 years. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP

Trump is typically more belligerent on weekends when the financial and oil markets are closed. In this case, he was reacting to a 14-point outline that Iran had submitted via Pakistani intermediaries for a framework that would lead to peace talks. Trump's dismissive attitude and interest in punishing Iran did not suggest much hope for an agreement being reached.

Almost 24 hours later, Trump again posted on Truth Social, this time announcing that U.S. military forces would "guide" ships that had been trapped in the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump described this as a humanitarian effort aimed at assisting ships "from areas of the World that are not in any way involved with that which is currently taking place in the Middle East." But, on Monday when the operation began, the first two ships assisted by the U.S. Navy were both U.S.-flagged. Apparently, the two ships, along with their Navy escorts, had to run a gauntlet of Iranian drones, missiles, and small attack boats. The operation required multiple U.S. Navy ships, U.S. aircraft, and even armed troops onboard the two civilian ships.

While the escort operation was going on, Iranian forces attacked multiple other ships close to the Strait of Hormuz and damaged oil facilities near the United Arab Emirates's port of Fujairah. Trump may have been attempting to negotiate an agreement with Iran, but U.S. activities, that Trump named "Project Freedom," were threatening to derail any progress towards peace. The U.S. responded to the Iranian 14 points with its own proposal, but the Iranians refused to review it while fighting was going on in the Gulf.

On Tuesday morning, Secretary of State Pete Hegseth held a press conference to promote Project Freedom, saying that the U.S. has erected a "red, white and blue dome" over the strait. He went on to say:

American destroyers are on station, supported by hundreds of fighter jets, helicopters, drones and surveillance aircraft providing 24/7 overwatch for peaceful commercial vessels, except Iran’s of course.

Later that afternoon, Secretary of State and National Security Advisor Marco Rubio emerged from hiding to hold his own press conference that was also devoted to Project Freedom. Among other things, Rubio declared that:

We’re going to stand up to rogue regimes like the one in Tehran, and we’re going to be unashamed to use our power and our abilities to project military power in the service of our national interest, above all else.

So, the table was set for a major U.S. operation that would free hundreds of ships. But, and stop me if you have heard this one before, Trump TACO'd.

Given that it was both Tuesday and Cinco de Mayo, Trump TACOing was completely appropriate. It was nevertheless surprising. Trump attributed ending Project Freedom to progress being made towards an agreement with Iran. Remember, what was being discussed was the same 14 points that Trump had brushed off three days earlier.

Almost nobody seemed to believe Trump's explanation. Some suggested that he was again engaging in market manipulation, and there were indications of insider trading just before key announcements. Others noted that the amount of military force required to escort just two ships through the strait made the operation unsustainable. But, what appears to have been the actual reason was even more surprising.

The same day that Hegseth and Rubio were supporting Project Freedom before the media and Trump was TACOing, the Wall Street Journal ran a story saying that the Gulf Arab countries were concerned that the Trump administration had basically ignored the attacks on the UAE. As the story said:

From the perspective of the Gulf states, it looks like the U.S. is not prioritizing their security and basically threw the Gulf states under the bus,” said Thafer. “If the U.S. doesn’t respond, then the Iranians will conclude that the U.S. doesn’t want to go back to war—and this affects deterrence.

It is undeniable that the Gulf countries did not expect to get hit as hard as they did during the fighting. There is considerable reporting that suggests that anti-missile and anti-drone weapons are now in short supply. As such, the Gulf countries must be concerned that if Trump reignites the war, they will be hung out to dry.

Yesterday, NBC News had a report that suggested that Gulf countries were not willing to take such a risk. According to the report:

Trump surprised Gulf allies by announcing “Project Freedom” on social media Sunday afternoon, the officials said, angering leadership in Saudi Arabia. In response, the Kingdom informed the U.S. it would not allow the U.S. military to fly aircraft from Prince Sultan Airbase southeast of Riyadh or fly through Saudi airspace to support the effort, the officials said.

Ryan Grim of Dropsite News reported that Kuwait had also refused to allow the U.S. to use its bases or airspace.

Project Freedom would simply be impossible to continue without access to Saudi Arabian or Kuwaiti assets. It is notable that Trump attempted to hide the real reason that he had to suspend the operation. He has been vocal in his anger with NATO countries for not aiding the U.S. against Iran, but made exaggerated claims about progress in negotiations with Iran in order to mislead about the Gulf states' lack of cooperation.

There are reports this morning that Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have reversed their positions and now will allow the U.S. access to their bases and airspace. It will be interesting to see whether Project Freedom restarts or whether this is just a face-saving gesture. It is unlikely that, if the Gulf states lost faith in Trump, they regained it overnight.

I have written repeatedly that Trump has a choice between a humiliating agreement with Iran or escalation of the fighting (which will likely only delay a humiliating agreement). The Gulf states appear to have decided in favor of a humiliating agreement. They most likely have enough leverage with Trump to force him into a deal that he doesn't like. With the world on the brink of economic disaster, plenty of parties are eager to resolve this conflict as soon as possible, and none of them care about Trump's pride. For his part, Trump will call any agreement a victory and proclaim it to be the greatest triumph in known history. But most people will understand that the war was a mistake, that Trump lost it, and that he is doing his best to put lipstick on a pig.