Trump: A Whole Civilization will Die Tonight

By any objective measure, the United States appears to be led by a genocidal maniac. That cult leader, convicted felon, and failed President Donald Trump is a narcissist who is suffering from significant cognitive decline should be obvious to anyone. Now our mad king is threatening to wipe out Iranian civilization. For those who have not yet seen it, here is a "truth" that Trump posted on Truth Social this morning:

A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will. However, now that we have Complete and Total Regime Change, where different, smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS? We will find out tonight, one of the most important moments in the long and complex history of the World. 47 years of extortion, corruption, and death, will finally end. God Bless the Great People of Iran!

Previously, Trump has talked about destroying Iran's bridges and power plants. Now he is threatening the country's entire civilization. I doubt that Trump has any awareness of the fact, but pride in Persian civilization is one thing that unites almost all Iranians. Iranians are generally quick to tell you that their civilization is 3,000 years or more old and that while Europe was in the Stone Ages, Persian civilization was thriving. Trump could hardly have concocted a more persuasive method of coalescing Iranians in opposition to the U.S. war efforts if he had specifically attempted to do so.

Moreover, to many, Trump's threat is perfectly believable. In recent days, U.S. and Israeli forces have bombed multiple Iranian universities. Ancient cultural centers have been bombed and damaged. Yesterday, Israel destroyed a synagogue in Tehran. Some irony there, I guess. These attacks make clear that Iran's civilization is already under attack. Why wouldn't Trump finish the job?

There are several ways to view Trump's post. The most obvious is that it is simply a negotiating ploy and not something that he actually intends to do. Trump is, of course, famous for "TACOing" when it comes time to implement his threats. This seems to be the hope of several Republicans. Republican Senator Ron Johnson, for instance, appeared on CNN this morning and said:

I am hoping and praying that President Trump is, that this really is bluster. I do not want to see us start blowing up civilian infrastructure. I do not want to see that. We are not at war with the Iranian people. We are trying to liberate them.

Others, such as Republican Congressman Mike Lawler, tried to ignore Trump's plain language and attempted to argue that Trump actually didn't mean what he said. Lawler told CNN that he doesn't support "making a whole civilization die" but that "I don't think we're talking about ending a civilization...It's their energy and civilian infrastructure."

According to Lawler, Trump only intends to knock out Iran's bridges, power plants, and energy production facilities, something that is, apparently, acceptable. Whereas wiping out Iran's civilization is not.

Some have interpreted Trump's post as a threat to use nuclear weapons. As unthinkable as this may be to most of us, the unfortunate truth is that such an action cannot be ruled out. In 2016, during Trump's first term, MSNBC's Joe Scarborough reported that:

Several months ago, a foreign policy expert on the international level went to advise Donald Trump. And three times [Trump] asked about the use of nuclear weapons. Three times he asked at one point if we had them why can’t we use them.

A year later, Politico reported that:

The Trump administration is considering proposing smaller, more tactical nuclear weapons that would cause less damage than traditional thermonuclear bombs — a move that would give military commanders more options but could also make the use of atomic arms more likely.

The same article quoted Andrew Weber, who served as assistant secretary of Defense responsible for nuclear policy in the Obama administration, as saying that the U.S. already has smaller nuclear weapons. Therefore, it is likely that there are nuclear options available to Trump should he choose to use them.

Of course, employing a nuclear weapon would have so many negative ramifications associated with it that it doesn't seem possible that even Trump is insane enough to do it. Moreover, as I wrote yesterday, destroying Iran's civilization — or even its bridges and power plants — regardless of whether that is done with nuclear or conventional weapons, would not actually help Trump achieve his goals. As long as the current Iranian regime remains in power, it will consider itself to be winning the war.

There is one exception to this that occurred to me, however. There are several indications that Trump is looking for an off-ramp for the war. Conventional thinking is that he would simply cut a deal with the Iranians, even one that strongly favored the current regime, and then act like it was a great victory. The problem for Trump is, again as I wrote yesterday, that, regardless of Trump's ability to spin an Iranian victory as a loss, his Gulf allies will not be satisfied if Iran is left in control of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump may see the solution as ending the war on a big bang. In other words, with no true victory in sight, Trump can cause enough destruction to Iran to impress the Gulf leaders to whom Trump is personally beholden for many billions of dollars. Trump and the Gulf Arabs might believe that an Iran that has been so weakened would be amenable to an acceptable deal involving the strait. If so, such arrangements could be concluded without U.S. involvement. If this theory is correct, Trump may see the widespread destruction of Iranian infrastructure as his way out of the war.

There are plenty of ways such a plan could go wrong. Most obviously, Iran could wreak its own wide-scale destruction on its Arab neighbors as well as Israel. As such, the most likely outcome remains Trump TACOing, perhaps with a fig leaf of negotiations. But I remain fearful that Trump's narcissism and desire to become a world historic figure will lead him to unthinkable acts.

Certainly, the Iranians have seen enough of Trump to know that giving into his bullying will only result in additional bullying. Everything that we have seen from them suggests that they have no intention of caving in. On the other hand, if the Iranians can achieve their goals through negotiations, Trump could be the ideal mark for them.

The bottom line is that none of us know what will happen at 8 p.m. tonight, and Trump himself may not be sure. The sad thing is that Trump has roped us into his reality show. We will all be watching the clock this evening and then checking to see what happens when it strikes 8. There is nothing that could thrill Trump more than that he has nearly the entire world captivated by his actions. It is truly an embarrassment for the United States that we have come to be defined by this foolish egomaniac.