Trump's Options for the War

Yesterday, cult leader, convicted felon, and failed President Donald Trump recognized Easter by opting out of church services and sending a profane "truth" on his Truth Social social media network. The truth, in full, said:

Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell - JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah. President DONALD J. TRUMP

As I have previously documented, threats by Trump to wreck destruction on Iran if it didn't open the Strait of Hormuz have come fairly regularly since he launched his war on Iran, the first one coming on March 9th. On March 27, Trump truthed:

As per Iranian Government request, please let this statement serve to represent that I am pausing the period of Energy Plant destruction by 10 Days to Monday, April 6, 2026, at 8 P.M., Eastern Time. Talks are ongoing and, despite erroneous statements to the contrary by the Fake News Media, and others, they are going very well. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP

This paused an earlier deadline that Trump had set, and the new expiration would have been this evening. However, on Saturday, Trump truthed:

Remember when I gave Iran ten days to MAKE A DEAL or OPEN UP THE HORMUZ STRAIT. Time is running out - 48 hours before all Hell will reign down on them. Glory be to GOD! President DONALD J. TRUMP

This appeared to have extended the 10-day deadline an extra day. If there were any doubt, Trump subsequently truthed "Tuesday, 8:00 P.M. Eastern Time!" Therefore, if Trump is to be believed, either Iran will have to either make a deal with Trump, or open the strait, or face the destruction of its bridges and power plants. But, can Trump be believed??

If nothing else, this series of truths, especially the Easter Sunday post, should convince you that Trump is cognitively impaired. The man has lost his marbles and is completely unfit for his job. Therefore, trying to make rational sense of Trump's actions is likely a fool's errand. A mad king should not be expected to act in a normal manner. Nevertheless, Trump cannot divorce himself from reality, and reality constrains his options.

There was a good example of reality intruding on Trump's own version of the world this weekend. On April 1, Trump gave a televised address to the nation in which he suggested that the U.S. had complete control of Iran's skies, saying that "They have no anti-aircraft equipment. Their radar is 100% annihilated." Just two days later, a U.S. F-15E was shot down over Iran. At nearly the same time, a second U.S. fighter jet — this one an A-10 — was hit by Iranian fire and crashed. The pilots of both aircraft were rescued, but the Weapon Systems Officer of the F-15E could not be immediately located. In the process of searching for the F-15E pilot and WSO, two helicopters were damaged by Iranian ground fire and forced to limp back to Iraq. Iran's non-existent anti-aircraft equipment had had a fairly productive day. On Sunday, the WSO was successfully rescued in a complex operation involving U.S. planes and helicopters. Two MC-130 aircraft and two MH-6 Little Bird helicopters were apparently destroyed by U.S. forces after they were unable to leave Iran. In addition, a number of Reaper drones were said to have been shot down. Iran's airspace is clearly not as safe as Trump suggested that it might be.

Until Trump attacked Iran, it had been more than 20 years since an U.S. aircraft had been shot down. Three U.S. fighter jets were accidentally shot down by Kuwaiti forces early in the war. But now, two more have been lost to enemy fire. It is anybody's guess how this might affect Trump's thinking going forward.

Based on past experience, shortly before Trump's Tuesday deadline, he is likely to announce that progress has been made in negotiations and that, therefore, he is extending or lifting his time limit. It will also be likely that there are no such negotiations. Trump's dilemma is that he does not have any good options. He has placed himself in a predicament for which there is not an easy solution.

Trump thought that Iran would be a repeat of Venezuela in which the Iranian leadership would be killed and their replacements would be intimidated into making a deal with Trump in which he would be given control of some or all of the country's oil. That obviously did not happen, though Trump repeatedly signals that he has not given up hope on some version of this outcome. As usual, Trump did not have a "Plan B" and he is now floundering around unsure of what to do.

One option that does not exist is a return to the pre-war status quo. Trump, having opened a Pandora's Box, cannot close it again. The war gave Iran the opportunity to exert its control over the Strait of Hormuz. Having realized the value of that weapon, it is unlikely to give it up easily. In what is likely to be the best scenario going forward, Iran is likely to control shipping through the strait and to place conditions on the ships that are allowed to pass. Regardless of how Trump might choose to present such an outcome, this will be a significant loss for the United States.

There are two threats available to Trump for escalating the conflict. One that has received a lot of attention is the introduction of ground forces. My understanding from military experts is that there is no likely scenario in which ground troops can help open the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's coastline is too long and it is too rugged. While U.S. forces could easily take Iranian-owned islands in the Persian Gulf, holding the islands and resupplying occupying troops would be challenging and costly. The U.S. simply does not have the forces for a large-scale occupation of Iranian territory. Therefore, probably both of these options are off the table. Ground troops may be used for special operations and limited objectives, but that is probably all.

The second threat is the one that Trump has been repeatedly making to destroy Iran's civilian infrastructure such as bridges and power plants. This is a similarly bad idea. Any military tactic should be aimed at achieving a goal. For instance, anti-aircraft weapons are targeted because they present threats to aircraft. The goal, therefore, is to eliminate a threat to aircraft. But, what does destroying bridges and power plants achieve? It could be argued that bridges allow the military to move its weapons around easier, but no evidence has been presented to show that bridges are being used in such a manner. Instead, Trump has simply talked about sending Iran back to the "stone age" as a punitive action. Trump seems to believe that destroying those targets will weaken the regime. That is almost certainly not the case.

One thing that Trump does not seem to realize is that for the Iranian regime, this war is existential. As long as the regime survives, the leaders will consider the war to have been won. Conversely, the regime has little hope that it can lose the war and remain in power. From a regime standpoint, therefore, losing bridges and power plants is acceptable as long as the regime remains in power. As for the Iranians who oppose the current regime and might be convinced to rise up against it, they will not be encouraged by the destruction of power plants and bridges. To the contrary, the more difficult that U.S. actions make their daily lives, the less faith they will have in the United States and the less likely they will be to challenge their government. Universally, the Iranian experts that I see on social media report that their contacts in Iran strongly oppose Trump returning Iran to the stone age. A number of Iranians who have supported the war have since changed their positions because they oppose Trump's destruction of Iran.

Probably the only proponent of destroying Iran's civilian infrastructure of whom I am aware is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Netanyahu's advice to Trump has been wrong every step of the way. But, Netanyahu would be comfortable turning Iran into a failed state and is naturally inclined to perpetrate such a strategy. Iran going the way of Libya would be very bad for almost everyone involved, including Israel despite Netanyahu's position. Trump appears to have some awareness of this fact, which may be why he has been reluctant to attack the oil sector. He has said that destroying the oil industry would make it impossible for Iran to recover from the war.

So, if Trump cannot introduce significant ground forces and he cannot return Iran to the Stone Age, what is left for him? He can make a deal with Iran, though a deal now would certainly favor the Iranians. Or he can continue to muddle along. That appears to be the most likely scenario. Trump will likely announce an extension of his deadline for bombing Iran's bridges and power plants, but will continue the current offensive. He may target more civilian infrastructure such as the occasional bridge or power plant as a way of sending a message. But, mostly, things will continue as they are. However, this also presents a problem for Trump. Keeping things the same means keeping oil prices high. Each day, that becomes more of a problem for world economies and makes recovery more difficult. Therefore, staying the course is not really a valid option either.

The bottom line, to repeat, is that Trump has no good options. As a result, he is flailing about, not sure what to do. So far, his threats have amounted to little more than foot stomping. That may change, but it will not have the result that he hopes. Regardless, it is almost certain that Trump has lost this war. It is only a question of whether he realizes that sooner rather than later.