The War is out of Trump's Control

I'm going to end the week with updates on the war. There should be no mistake about it. We are in a very bad situation. We were led into this war by a delusional, cognitively-impaired, narcissist who had no idea why he was launching the war or how it was likely to go. Cult leader, convicted felon, and failed President Donald Trump now openly says that he was not aware of the most likely Iranian reactions to being attacked and was, therefore, taken by surprise. He still has fantasies about an outcome that is simply not going to happen. In addition, Trump is making every move with one eye on financial markets. It is not clear that Trump has any understanding of the disaster he has created.

Yesterday, Trump held another of his boot-licking cabinet meetings during which cabinet secretaries take turns trying to outdo each other in their praise of Trump's greatness. These meetings are the type of thing that you might expect in North Korea or possibly Saddam's Iraq. It is an embarrassing spectacle to watch, though I must admit to some pleasure in seeing these wealthy and relatively powerful people grovel and humiliate themselves. The winner of the brown-nosing award yesterday might have been Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent. Bessent started off his remarks by saying that Trump's "economic leadership has made our military mission possible." He continued, "Mr. President, national security, as you always say, is economic security. Your leadership has shown the American people that there is no prosperity without security." I wonder how those Americans paying $4 a gallon or more for gas, the farmers unable to obtain fertilizer, the unemployed facing zero net job growth, and everyone struggling with higher prices thanks to Trump's tariffs feel about the that prosperity?

As for Trump, he showed that he is completely out of his depth when it comes to the war. Trump started off the day with a "truth" saying, in part, that the Iranians "are ‘begging’ us to make a deal, which they should be doing since they have been militarily obliterated, with zero chance of a comeback, and yet they publicly state that they are only ‘looking at our proposal.’" This message was apparently not reassuring to the stock market, which opened down and stayed down all day. Things even got worse once Trump's cabinet meeting started. Trump began by again referring to Iran, saying "They are begging to make a deal, not me. They're begging to make a deal. I don't know if we'll be able to do that. I don't know if we're willing to do that." At this point, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 started to drop like rocks.

Trump then revealed an astonishing lack of preparedness for the war. Describing the beginning of the war, Trump said, "All of the sudden the war starts, and they [Iranians] start shooting at these five, in particular five countries. They start shooting at Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Oman. They start shooting at them, they, they were, everybody was shocked, including us." If this is true, whoever advised Trump is completely incompetent. Either Trump's staff was totally ignorant about the most likely Iranian reaction or they failed to brief Trump properly. This looks very bad for Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Not knowing that Iran would likely retaliate against the Gulf Arab nations should be disqualifying for anyone involved in the war planning. If Trump truly was not told that Iran would attack U.S. allies in the region, Hegseth and Rubio should resign. In all likelihood, Trump was told but ignored it and is just lying about it now. In that case, Trump is clearly not fit for the job.

Next, Trump turned to providing a status report on the war. This was also mostly fictional. He began by saying "We estimated that it would take approximately four to six weeks to achieve our mission, and we're way ahead of schedule...we are way ahead." Never mind that Trump once said that the war would last "four weeks or less," and, therefore, the four to six-week timeframe is already behind schedule. Tomorrow, we will enter week 5 of the war. Additional troops were just dispatched to the region in recent days. Does anyone believe this war will be over in two weeks? Also, keep in mind that what has become the number one issue of the war — opening the Strait of Hormuz — was not even on the original schedule. Trump is either disconnected from reality or simply lying to try to reassure the financial markets. The markets simply didn't buy it, and the longer he talked, the more the stock market dropped.

Trump then turned toward the economy, a topic about which he is also delusional. He started off by noting that the Dow had hit 50,000 and the S&P 500 hit 7,000. As I write this, the Dow is 45,420, over 500 points down from its opening. The S&P 500 is 6,397, over 80 points down for the day. Both indexes have been on a steady decline since the beginning of the war. West Texas Intermediate Crude oil that was selling for less than $60 a barrel in December is over $98 at the moment. Brent Crude was around $70 a barrel before the war. Right now it is selling for over $111. During the cabinet meeting, Trump was cavalier about the market performance, describing an "excursion to Iran" that was necessary. Trump went on to say that "I thought oil prices would go up more and I thought the stock market would go down more. It hasn't been nearly as severe as I thought. I think they have confidence in the American president." He then said:

It's not over, so maybe it'll go up a little bit more. It's all gonna come back down to where it was and probably lower. And my predictions have been right. Trump was right about everything. They have a new hat: "Trump was right about everything."

Again, Trump is highlighting his own poor management. If he knew that oil prices were going to increase, why didn't he take steps to prepare for it? He could have filled the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The reserve is currently at 415 million barrels. The full capacity is 714 million barrels. Moreover, the oil crisis is much more severe than Trump is acknowledging. Oil tankers can take a minimum of 30 days to get from the Gulf to Western Europe. That means that the last tankers from the Gulf will be arriving in Europe soon. Almost none have left the Gulf for a month. If the Strait of Hormuz were to open tomorrow, there would be at least a 30-day gap in Gulf oil supplies to Western Europe. However, there is no way it will open tomorrow. So that gap will only grow. This will put pressure on non-Gulf oil supplies, and the result is the price increases we are seeing. The U.S. has plenty of oil, but it is still subject to global price fluctuations. That's why we are seeing WTI prices going up.

Trump continues to have delusions of repeating the "Venezuela model" in Iran. In that scenario, Trump would pick Iran's ruler, and Iran would give Trump control of its oil. That possibility is so far removed from reality right now that it, again, should draw into question Trump's competency. During the cabinet session, Trump was asked by a reporter if he would take control of Iran's oil. Trump's response was "It's an option." He then went on to describe the current situation in Venezuela, saying that "we've taken in billions and billions of dollars." The chance of this happening in Iran is practically nil.

The bottom line is that the war has turned out to be far more complicated than Trump expected. He talks about negotiations that don't appear to exist outside his imagination. At the same time, the Wall Street Journal reported yesterday that Trump is considering sending an additional 10,000 ground troops to the region. There is considerable speculation that Trump will initiate ground action, possibly as early as this weekend. Clearly, Trump would like to get this war over. It would not be surprising that he is still seeking the silver bullet that could quickly end it. Perhaps he believes that seizing Kharg Island or other Iranian territory will pressure the Iranians into surrendering. That is unlikely. It is more likely that such action would only compound the economic problems that the war is causing and extend the war's duration. Trump is in a trap of his own making, and there is no easy way out.

A report that came out early this morning by MS Now quoted a senior White House official as saying that Trump's declarations that the war has already been won are "mostly hyperbole" and that "It’s part [of Trump] just wanting to declare victory and move on." The official continued "[Trump] is getting a little bored with Iran. Not that he regrets it or something — he’s just bored and wants to move on." Trump has been strangely quiet on Truth Social this morning. He hadn't "truthed" for 19 hours before a short post saying only that "Going to make a big speech on economics in Miami. Our Military Operation in Iran is going GREAT! President DJT". It has been apparent to me for some time that Trump was tired of the war and wanted to move on. Unfortunately for him, Iran also has a vote. The war will continue despite Trump's apparent wish for it to be over.