War Mismanagement Continues

I am going to continue writing about the United States-Israel war against Iran today. Each day there is more evidence illustrating that, despite the technical excellence of the U.S. military, the war has been spectacularly mismanaged. As I have written every day this week, cult leader, convicted felon, and failed President Donald Trump seems to have no idea why he launched this war, only the faintest of concepts as to what he hopes to achieve, and no clear plans for the end of the war. For his part, Trump appears to have already lost interest in the war. This morning he has been busy posting "truths" on his Truth Social social media network urging Republicans to pass the Save America Act, legislation that will require proof of U.S. citizenship to register to vote and voter identification to actually vote. Trump also posted a "truth" suggesting that he wrongly believes the Save America Act addresses transgender issues. It does not. Most recently, Trump has posted a series of mock-up photos of his ballroom. Trump really appears to be bored with the war. It has become clear that outside of the military plans for the attack, very little preparation was done for this conflict. Perhaps as a result, things are rapidly spinning out of control.

The best description of Trump's behavior regarding the war that I have seen was provided by Karim Sadjadpour in "The Atlantic". He wrote:

Trump has treated the opening week of the war as an improvisational jazz session, riffing on different analyses, strategies, and endgames in conversations with numerous reporters. This is not deliberate strategic ambiguity to throw an adversary off base, but rather a symptom of genuine confusion.

It is absurd how little idea Trump has about what he is doing. He clearly did not expect the war to go as it has. Now he is in the position of metaphorically throwing spaghetti at the wall to see what sticks (though, in Trump's case, it may be ketchup and not metaphorical). For instance, the administration did not plan for the evacuation of Americans in the war zone. Politico had a long report about this yesterday, reporting that "the State Department is sending extra staff to Athens to aid U.S. citizens" but that the effort has been too slow and too late. The article further said:

The rush to add people and resources to support efforts that are often organized well in advance of U.S. military action highlights how the Trump team had not fully anticipated the wide fallout of the war it launched alongside Israel on Saturday.

The administration did manage to arrange a charter flight for a group of MAGA influencers, but the vast majority of Americans have been left to fend for themselves. Until recently, calling the Department of State helpline resulted in an automated response telling callers to "not rely on the US government" for assistance. The trapped Americans, meanwhile, had very few options given that the airspace was closed and there were no available flights in most of the countries from which they wanted to escape.

There have been repeated concerns that the U.S. may be rapidly running out of necessary munitions. The Trump administration has said on one hand that there are plenty of weapons but on the other hand blamed former President Joe Biden for providing too many weapons to Ukraine. This administration is quick to blame everything on Biden. But, let's say that their criticism is correct (I don't think that it is). Doesn't that mean that Trump made a decision to go to war knowing that too many of our weapons had been provided to Ukraine and, therefore, our own forces faced a shortage? If so, the Trump administration's defense appears to be that it is incompetent.

While the U.S. has been reasonably successful at shooting down Iranian missiles and rockets, it has had less success defending against drones. It should not be a surprise that Iran has effective drones given it has been supplying them to Russia, who has been using them against Ukraine for the past three years. The drones are battle-tested and have been refined based on lessons learned in that war. That the U.S. did not plan for drones to be used is another clear failure by the war planners. The situation is so stark that the U.S. has asked Ukraine to provide it with anti-drone weapons. Therefore, at the same time that Trump is blaming Ukraine for weapons shortages and pressuring the country to give up territory to Russia, he is also begging for anti-drone weapons. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy seems to relish unexpectedly finding himself with a strong hand to play and issued a statement saying that Ukraine would only help if it didn't diminish its own defense and in exchange for diplomatic support to help bring the war to a "dignified end." In other words, if you want our weapons, you need to stop pressuring us to sacrifice Ukrainian territory and start pressuring Russia. In another statement released later, Zelenskyy agreed to provide anti-drone technology and expertise but reiterated the need for support for Ukraine's security.

Shortage of munitions or not, the Trump administration hastily arranged a meeting with defense contractors to be held tomorrow so that Trump can harangue them about "replenishing the U.S. stockpile of munitions and weapons". Simultaneously, the administration is arguing that the U.S. has sufficient weaponry to essentially fight an endless war. It is hard to square both the claim of an adequate supply with the need to pressure the defense industry to increase production.

The mention of an endless war brings up another issue. Just how long is this war going to last? Simply put, nobody knows. Trump has been saying that the war could go on for four to five weeks, but has also suggested that it could go longer. On Monday, Trump wrote a letter to Congress in which he said that "it is not possible at this time to know the full scope and duration of" the conflict. That suggests that he doesn't really have a plan for anything. Meanwhile, Senators who emerged from classified briefings on the war expressed concern about what they heard. Senator Richard Blumenthal, for instance, said that he feared that we are "on the precipice...of an escalating conflict". Senator Chris Murphy stated that "I’m more convinced now that this is going to be open-ended and forever" and even Republican Josh Hawley noted that "It sounded very open-ended to me".

Another indication that the war may last longer than expected was in the same Politico article mentioned above. The report said:

U.S. Central Command, meanwhile, is asking the Pentagon to send more military intelligence officers to its headquarters in Tampa, Florida, to support operations against Iran for at least 100 days but likely through September, according to a notification obtained by POLITICO.

If lawmakers were told in their classified briefing that this war is likely to last through September, their concern would be easily understood. I suspect that if the war goes anywhere close to that length of time (which would not surprise me), Republican hopes for the midterms are just about finished. This war is very unpopular now. Imagine how it will be six months from now? No wonder Trump is fixated on voting issues. We can expect him to up his efforts at election interference exponentially.

Another Politico article highlights an additional planning failure by the Trump administration. Apparently, the administration failed to predict increased gas prices. Already, crude oil prices are up $10 a barrel and around $0.20 per gallon at the pump. Prices are likely to go higher the longer the war continues. This is not going over well among the public, and the administration appears to be feeling the heat. Trump's chief of staff, Susie Wiles, has asked Trump's advisors to come up with ideas to lower the cost of gasoline. So far, the solutions with which they have come up are using the U.S. Navy to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow passage at the mouth of the Persian Gulf that Iran has declared closed — and to use the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation to provide insurance to shippers whose insurance has been cancelled. Therefore, taxpayers' dollars will be spent to keep gas prices down. Robbing Peter to pay Paul.

Probably the most contentious issue is whether U.S. troops will be sent into Iran. So-called "boots on the ground" is a highly sensitive issue because it would likely result in increased casualties and signal a longer and more complicated involvement. Trump said that he would not rule it out and criticized other presidents for doing so. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said that American boots on the ground are "on the table." Republican Representative James Comer, when asked about "boots on the ground," responded that "Sometimes that's unavoidable in a situation like this." Republican Senator Ron Johnson was not particularly reassuring when he was asked about "boots on the ground." His response was "We're not gonna put boots on the ground probably." This appears to be an effort to prepare the public for troops to be on the ground in Iran.

The final issue that I will touch on is almost a joke. Trump apparently told Axios that he must be involved in the selection of Iran's next leader and that the current front-runner — Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the recently killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei — is not acceptable. The idea that Trump can tell one Iranian mullah from another is ludicrous. More importantly, none of the leaders in Iran will give a fig what Trump has to say. Trump clearly is delusional when it comes to Iran, which is a bad sign for how things are likely to go. It is obvious that Trump still has no understanding of what he has unleashed.

There is a lot more that can be said. For instance, yesterday there was an on-again, off-again series of rumors about an invasion by Iranian Kurds from Iraq. It doesn't appear that it actually happened but may still in the future. All-in-all, the general message of the day was that nobody in charge has any idea what they are doing. Trump is in la la land and everyone else in his administration is simply trying not to get caught zigging when Trump zags. Expect this pattern to continue, but only getting worse. It is simply incredible that the U.S. is subjecting itself to this.