Trump is Losing when it comes to Deportations

Cult leader, convicted felon, and failed President Donald Trump is losing. According to a recent The Economist/YouGov poll, 61% of respondents believe that the country is on the wrong track. 54% disapprove of the way Trump is handling his job as President. Trump is underwater on every major issue. On national security, Trump has 47% disapproval versus 45% approval. On how Trump is handling Venezuela, it is 50% to 37% against Trump. Trump has 56% disapproval and 37% approval on tariffs, his signature issue. On foreign policy as a whole, Trump is behind 50% to 39%. On immigration, an issue on which Trump is normally considered to be strong, he has 51% disapproval to 44% approval. Trump is simply unpopular, and there is widespread dissatisfaction with how he is doing his job. Today, I am going to look at the issue of Trump's mass deportations and how that is being received by the public.

Despite Trump's campaign rhetoric about mass deportations, most people, particularly among swing voters, did not believe that Trump would engage in the type of deportation operations that we are now witnessing. The DC Urban Moms and Dads Political Discussion forum had thread after thread about what Trump would do when it came to deportations. A widespread view was that Trump was making promises for political expediency and he would not actually carry through on them. One popular belief was that Trump might engage in a few high-profile deportation spectacles, but otherwise not much would happen. Others argued that Trump would only go after criminals and that those arguing that deportations would, in fact, be widespread were unnecessarily spreading fear. While there are certainly plenty of diehard MAGAs who are happy to look at what is happening with deportations these days and proudly say, "I voted for this," many Trump voters did not think that they were voting for this. The dissatisfaction among non-Trump voters is even greater.

The bottom line is that what Trump is doing with regard to deportations is not at all what most Americans, whether they voted for Trump or not, were expecting to happen. The specter of large numbers of unidentified, fatigue-dressed agents, hiding their faces with masks, and grabbing random delivery drivers, car washers, or day laborers off the street is something that most Americans simply find appalling. In the Economist/YouGov poll, 73% of the respondents agreed that Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers should be required to wear uniforms when making arrests. Note that ICE has gotten most of the name recognition when it comes to deportations. However, another agency, Customs and Border Patrol, is also involved and actually generally the more violent and out of control of the two. Most of the major deportation operations have been led by Gregory Bovino, a CBP official. Therefore, questions about ICE should probably be understood to refer to CBP as well. Only 32% of the poll's respondents agree that ICE agents should be allowed to wear masks, against 56% who do not. Americans simply do not support unidentified thugs terrorizing cities.

ICE and CBP are almost always accompanied by videographers who film content to be used in Department of Homeland Security propaganda videos. The result is a constant flow of social media content coming from DHS that is aimed at making its officers appear heroic and to generate support for its operations. However, despite the amount of money being put into the effort, it is not working. Video being provided by normal citizens is simply more believable than what DHS is providing, regardless of how well produced it may be. The Economist/YouGov poll shows that 47% of respondents believe that ICE is making Americans less safe versus only 34% that is making us more safe. A plurality of 46% to 43% support abolishing ICE altogether. DHS is losing the public relations battle.

There is no mystery why DHS is losing or why Trump's policy is unpopular. Americans view the actions of ICE and CBP as simply unacceptable. When ICE officer Jonathan Ross shot Renee Good three times in the head, DHS Secretary Noem called Good a domestic terrorist. Video of the shooting went viral across social media. 69% of the respondents to the Economist/YouGov poll said that they had seen video of the incident. Another 22% had not seen a video but had heard about it. 50% of the respondents said that the shooting was not justified, versus just 30% who said that it was justified. Noem asked Americans to ignore what they could see with their own eyes, and most Americans refused.

The Trump administration argues that ICE and CBP are going after the "worst of the worst," detaining rapists, murderers, and other dangerous criminals. In reality, the vast majority of those being detained now have no criminal record. The American Immigration Council just released a report that says that "at large" arrests in American communities, as opposed to targeted apprehensions, increased by 600 percent in Trump’s first nine months in office. As a result, there has "been a 2,450 percent increase in the number of people with no criminal record held in ICE detention on any given day." Frequently, American citizens are being caught up in the ICE/CBP sweeps. For instance, two U.S. citizens were arrested at a Target in Minneapolis. One, a 17-year-old U.S. citizen who was an employee of the Target, was later dumped in the parking lot of a Walmart several miles away, bleeding from injuries. In another case, a woman was simply trying to drive past an ICE operation in Minneapolis in order to get to a doctor appointment. She was told to stop by some officers and to move by others. Because she was not following instructions, ICE broke her car windows, cut her seatbelt, and pulled her out of the car and arrested her. When videos of such incidents go viral, there is no convincing the average American that these are the "worst of the worst" or even criminals.

What has happened is a spiral of authoritarianism. ICE and CBP surged into Minneapolis because of exaggerated accusations of fraud drummed up by right-wing influencers. Once arriving in the city, the agents encountered massive popular opposition. Communities formed groups to alert their neighbors to the presence of ICE and CBP and to rush to film and observe their activities. Neighbors surround schools to keep the students safe and walk kids to and from school to prevent them from being detained. The killing of Good, far from discouraging such behavior, only increased it. ICE and CBP are now spending almost as much effort trying to control crowds who are filming and calling them names as they are trying to make detentions. The government agents are increasingly taking out their frustrations on peaceful, law-abiding observers. This creates even more anger and brings out even larger crowds, and ICE and CBP get even more aggressive. Last night, ICE fired a flash-bang into a car carrying a father and several of his children. The father was driving near a large protest, but was just trying to get home and had no interest in what was happening. The ICE flash-bang injured him and his children, including a six-month-old. They are now all in the hospital.

DHS has repeatedly increased the size of the deployment of federal officers, but with little effect. The opposition to ICE and CBP simply increases. The increasingly violent tactics used by the federal agents have not gone unnoticed by the general public, contributing to the unpopularity of Trump's policies. Even podcaster Joe Rogan, who endorsed Trump in 2024, recently mused that ICE and CBP were acting like the Gestapo. Now Trump is threatening to invoke the Insurrection Act, which would allow him to deploy the military or National Guard to the city. The Insurrection Act has tended to be invoked only in the case of riots or widespread unrest. The last time it was used was in 1992 in response to the riots following the acquittal of the police officers charged with beating Rodney King. The situation in Minneapolis is simply not comparable. To the contrary, the violence is almost exclusively coming from the federal government. ICE and CBP are beating, tear-gassing, and even shooting non-violent and unarmed protesters who are doing nothing more than filming them with phone cameras and yelling at them. The fact that Trump believes that armed soldiers are needed to control people with phones is a clear sign of his weakness and how badly he is losing in this situation. For their part, the protesters are planning a general strike.

Trump is losing. He is losing on the ground in Minneapolis, and he is losing in the realm of public opinion. Every move he is making is causing life to be worse for the people he is supposed to represent and making things worse for himself by causing him to become even more unpopular. Trump is too ignorant and too narcissistic to back down, so things are likely to get significantly worse for all involved. Republican legislators could stop this in a minute if they would only find their backbones. Democratic legislators could certainly do more as well. If there is one clear lesson from the last few weeks, it is that the common, powerless people of cities such as Chicago and Minneapolis are far braver, far more willing to take risks, and far more dedicated to saving our democracy than any of the elected leaders on Capitol Hill. Far more than the presidents of most U.S. universities or the heads of major law firms, for that matter. While the elite has bowed down and found ways to appease Trump, average Americans are standing bravely in support of their neighbors and their communities.