Trump's Attack on Venezuela

Because cult leader, convicted felon, and failed President Donald Trump chose late Friday to launch a military operation against Venezuela that led to the seizure of Venezuela's President, Nicolás Maduro, and his wife, I have had a couple of days to think about what I would ultimately write about the events. The result is that I have a lot of thoughts, but not really a coherent analysis of things. Therefore, today I am simply going to present a series of conclusions that I have drawn from what has occurred.

There is no plan

The most important point that I think must be understood is that the Trump administration has no real plan for what will come next. Last month I wrote about Trump's imposition of a blockade on Venezuelan oil shipments. In that post, I noted that Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, and White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller all likely had separate personal reasons for supporting a war against Venezuela. I went on to suggest that "My guess is that what is happening is less the result of Trump's desires and more of a case of him acquiescing to the wishes of his three powerful officials." Keeping in mind that Trump's brain these days is basically mush, I think that he was excited by the opportunity to watch on TV while U.S. forces blew things up and staged a daring raid into Maduro's home to abduct him. That was incentive enough for Trump to sign off on an operation proposed by Rubio, Hegseth, and Miller. However, there does not appear to have been any agreement beyond that.

The fact that there was no plan for what came after Maduro's capture was clear in Trump's first statements after the attack. Talking to Fox News, Trump was asked "What do you think is next for the Venezuelan people?" His response was, "Well, we're making that decision now." Even the most basic plan would have answered that question prior to launching a military operation. In a press conference that followed shortly after the interview, Trump said that "We're there now, but we're going to stay until such time as the pop -- proper transition can take place. So we're gonna stay until such time as -- we're gonna run it essentially." It would later turn out that no U.S. troops had remained in Venezuela and, as such, we were not, in fact, there. The incoherence continued Sunday morning when NBC News' Kristen Welker asked Rubio if he is running Venezuela and he replied "yeah" before changing the subject to the type of changes the U.S. wants to see in the country. But when literally minutes later ABC News' George Stephanopoulos asked Rubio exactly the same question, Rubio suggested that it was a Defense Department operation in which he is "intricately involved," but distanced himself from the suggestion that he was running things. The Washington Post reported yesterday that the White House is considering giving Miller a role in overseeing post-Maduro operations in Venezuela. As best as I can discern, what is happening is that Maduro's regime is remaining in power with Vice President Delcy Rodríguez in charge. Rodríguez is apparently expected to follow orders coming from Washington. I am not confident that this will work as well as the Administration hopes.

Rubio and Trump don't even agree on what will happen with the proceeds from Venezuelan oil sales. Rubio told NBC News that "We want to see the oil proceeds of the country benefit the people of Venezuela." Trump, on the other hand, said at a press conference, with an uncomfortable-looking Rubio standing directly behind him, that the oil money "goes also to the United States of America in the form of reimbursement for the damages caused us by that country." These guys are not even close to being on the same page.

Almost everyone will be disappointed by U.S. actions

One result of not having a plan is that there are no agreed-upon goals of the U.S. intervention in Venezuela. As a result of that vacuum, many have engaged in wishful thinking about what will be achieved and are almost certainly going to be disappointed when those goals are not only not achieved, but not even pursued in the first place. Trump is fixated on the country's oil and insists that U.S. petroleum corporations will invest "billions of dollars" into modernizing the industry. However, U.S. corporations have expressed little interest in returning to the country. The U.S. is an oil exporter now. But downward pressure on oil prices would make many U.S. production operations unprofitable. It would be a fitting irony if Trump bullies companies into increasing Venezuela's oil output and, in the process, wipes out Pennsylvania's shale oil extraction industry. A swing state suffering a major economic setback just before midterm elections would be interesting, to say the least. If things don't move that quickly, the same result could occur just before the next presidential election.

There has been considerable talk about returning Venezuela to a democracy. That is clearly not an item on the Trump administration's agenda. When asked about elections by NBC's Welker, Rubio appeared almost astonished by the question, as if it was a foolish thing about which to ask. He solidly pushed back on the idea that elections are anywhere on the horizon. Trump was asked whether the U.S. would push for political prisoners to be released or opposition figures be allowed to return and responded that "We haven't gotten to that. Right now, we want to do is fix up the oil." The same Washington Post article referenced above noted that the Venezuelan political opposition has been frozen out of any post-intervention role. The newspaper quoted "two people close to the White House" as saying that Trump had brushed off María Corina Machado — the Venezuelan opposition leader who was recently awarded the Nobel Peace Prize — because she had accepted the prize that Trump covets. Essentially, Maduro's government will remain in place while little is expected to change with regard to the opposition.

Things may not end with Venezuela

You don't really even have to read between the lines to understand that Venezuela may be the first of many similar U.S. interventions. Trump administration officials are being quite clear in this regard. Rubio, whose parents emigrated from Cuba prior to the revolution, has misleadingly cast his family as victims of former Cuban leader Fidel Castro. With strong support in Florida's Cuban exile community, Rubio has long championed regime change in the Cuba. He clearly sees this as an opportunity. One U.S. demand for Rodríguez will most certainly be an end to the Cuban presence in Venezuela. The Cuban government has said that 32 Cuban officers were killed in the U.S. attack. Presumably, these officers were intentionally targeted by U.S. forces given the U.S.’s bragging about the precision of the attack. In addition, it is likely that Venezuelan oil supplies to Cuba will be cut off, if not by the Venezuelans under U.S. pressure, then by the U.S. blockade. When Welker asked Rubio if the Cuban government is the next Trump administration target, Rubio replied that "I think they're in a lot of trouble, yes." Trump himself commented that "Cuba is ready to fall. Cuba looks like it's ready to fall. I don't know if they're gonna hold out."

The apparent success of the Venezuelan operation, at least so far, will only encourage Trump administration officials. Speaking to reporters, Trump provided a long list of potential targets of U.S. intervention. He suggested that a second strike on Venezuela was possible. As mentioned above, he threatened Cuba. He also suggested that the U.S. might intervene in Mexico. He called the President of Colombia "a sick man who likes making cocaine and selling it to the US" and when asked if Colombia might be the target of a U.S. operation replied "Sounds good to me." While Trump has talked about the Monroe Doctrine — a U.S. policy to oppose intervention by outside forces in the Western Hemisphere that Trump has re-christened the "Donroe Doctrine" — Trump also suggested the U.S. might attack Iran which, as far as I am aware, is not in the Western Hemisphere. Trump renewed his threats to Greenland which would be an attack on Denmark, the European Union, and NATO. Trump told Fox News that "This incredible thing last night... We have to do it again [in other countries]. We can do it again, too. Nobody can stop us."

There can be unexpected consequences

Another result of not having a plan is that there may be consequences that were not expected. Several such developments can easily be identified as potentially resulting from the Venezuelan operation. One is a collapse of the current government. If current institutions simply cease to function, internal turmoil is likely to result. The Maduro government has armed citizen militias which could seek to establish local power. Outside governments hoping to cause problems for the U.S. might intervene. Any involvement by U.S. corporations in the country would require security and legal support. This might require U.S. boots on the ground and a long-term occupation.

Trump has promised to keep selling Venezuelan oil to Russia and China, but that might not be enough to appease those nations. An interesting development recently involved an oil tanker that U.S. forces attempted to board as it sailed towards Venezuela. The tanker refused to allow U.S. personnel to board and fled from the scene. With U.S. ships in pursuit, the tanker painted a Russian flag on its side, and the ship was entered into Russia’s official registry of ships. Russia then made a formal diplomatic request to the U.S. to stop pursuing the tanker. How will the U.S. react if tankers heading to and from Venezuela suddenly become Russian or Chinese-flagged? Will the U.S. risk conflict with either of those nations by attempting to interfere with their ships?

Even more dangerous could be Russian or Chinese interpretations of Trump's "Donroe Doctrine" to mean that they are welcome to establish their own spheres of influence. For Russia, this would obviously mean that it is free to take over Ukraine, but potentially other neighbors such as Georgia or the Baltic countries as well. In the case of China, the obvious target would be Taiwan, for which it clearly has designs. But this could also extend to land with which China has disputes with Japan and other countries. It is almost a certainty that an administration that had not even decided who would run Venezuela before removing its leader has not given sufficient thought to such outcomes.

Another danger is the risk of retaliation against U.S. interests, including domestic targets. The more that the U.S. intervenes, the more it risks stepping on a hornet’s nest and getting stung in return. There are plenty of reasons to doubt that the Trump administration is truly interested in stopping the flow of drugs. For one thing, Venezuela is not a major source of drugs for the U.S., and Trump recently pardoned former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández, who had been convicted of trafficking more than 400 tons of cocaine to the United States. But imagine that Trump was successful in interfering with the South American drug trade. Does anyone imagine that the cartels would not react? Pablo Escobar once blew up an entire civilian airliner, killing 107 people, because he wanted to kill a presidential candidate (who ended up not being on the flight). These are not the sort of people who will stand by idly while their businesses are wiped out. Does anyone think that the Trump administration is prepared for such developments?

Summary

As things stand today, it appears that the U.S. operation in Venezuela was really nothing more than support for a coup by the country's Vice President. Whether she will be a willing puppet for the Trump administration remains to be seen. There is no real plan for what comes next for Venezuela, and it is likely that the Trump administration hopes to put the country behind it so that the administration can focus on other countries. As I have written before, Trump has ruled as a mad king, but now aspires to be a mad emperor. In that regard, Venezuela is simply the first step. Tomorrow I will write more about what I see as the larger picture of Trump's foreign policy. Simply put, it is not a policy based on national interests, but rather one that prioritizes Trump's personal interests.