A Mad King and War and Peace

As the saying goes, "The first casualty of war is truth." All sides of a conflict have incentives to spin reality in a favorable direction. Information itself can be a weapon, and deception is an effective tactic. But the issue of "truth" has become even more complicated during the second term of cult leader, convicted felon, and failed President Donald Trump. Trump lies as frequently as he breathes, and it is never clear whether he actually believes the falsehoods emanating from his mouth or if, instead, he is knowingly spreading misinformation. This is true across the board, regardless of the topic. But the gulf between reality and what Trump claims the facts to be is probably never wider than it is on issues related to war and peace.

One of Trump's most effective campaign promises was to end "forever wars" and to avoid new ones. In his inaugural address, he said, "We will measure our success not only by the battles we win, but also by the wars that we end, and perhaps most importantly, the wars we never get into." Instead of wasting blood and treasure on foreign wars, U.S. resources would be used to improve American lives. But in the first year of his second administration, Trump has largely abandoned that promise. He has eagerly engaged in multiple conflicts around the world. But, true to form, Trump has mostly lied about them.

One of Trump's most frequent lies involves not war, but peace. Trump repeatedly says that he has ended eight wars, though that number can fluctuate. Not only does Trump make this false statement in public, but a hot microphone prior to Trump's meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu yesterday demonstrates that Trump makes the claim even in casual conversation. Trump claims to have ended the war between Israel and Hamas, yet Israeli attacks occur daily with tens of Palestinians, including children, dying each day. At best, Trump administration officials have negotiated a one-sided ceasefire observed only by Hamas, though the group's patience is likely to run out soon. For its part, Israel is focused on making life in Gaza unbearable so that the remaining Palestinian residents will agree to relocate elsewhere, perhaps to Somaliland. The war is far from over.

Trump also claims to have ended the Israel-Iran war. However, the June fighting in which U.S. forces got involved was less a war and more a skirmish in an ongoing war. Again, while Trump might take credit for a ceasefire, the fighting between the two countries is not likely to be over. Indeed, Trump offered support for additional Israeli attacks on Iran during his meeting with Netanyahu yesterday.

Trump claims to have ended a war in April between India and Pakistan. While Pakistan has thanked Trump and said that he deserves credit for ending the conflict, India has denied Trump's claims and said that he played no role in bringing about a ceasefire. It is questionable whether the fighting can even be described as a war. Trump also says that he ended a war between Cambodia and Thailand. Again, Trump may be credited with achieving a temporary ceasefire, but the conflict is far from being resolved. While Trump has been claiming to have ended this war for months, there was heavy fighting between the two countries earlier this month.

Another Trump claim is that he ended a war between Rwanda and the Congo. In this case, he even had the Presidents of each country sign a peace deal in Washington. However, the Rwandan-backed group M23 has refused to abide by the agreement and took over a Congolese city within days of the signing ceremony. There is no indication that this war has ended. Moreover, Qatar has a separate peace process in progress, though it has also failed to yield results.

In August, Trump hosted leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan at the White House to sign a deal to end the conflict between the two countries. However, neither country has officially ratified the deal. This conflict has mostly centered on the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, an Armenian enclave located within Azerbaijan. However, Azerbaijan completely took over the region in 2023. The August agreement dealt with the area of Nakhchivan, which belongs to Azerbaijan but is located within Armenia. The two countries agreed to a land bridge connecting Nakhchivan to Azerbaijan proper. Trump may deserve credit for using the promise of increased trade as an inducement for Armenia to compromise and to essentially recognize its defeat.

Even more disconnected from reality is Trump's claim to have ended the war between Egypt and Ethiopia, a war that has not even occurred. There are tensions between the two countries over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam that Ethiopia built on the Blue Nile. While Trump has tried to broker a deal to resolve the dispute, he has failed. Another non-existent war that Trump claims to have ended is one between Serbia and Kosovo. There has been no fighting between the two countries for years, and the only thing resembling involvement in the region by Trump was a failed luxury investment attempt in Serbia by his son-in-law, Jared Kushner. A common practice in Trump's White House is for him to make a statement that is not true but then have administration officials rush to create a reality consistent with his false statement. Trump likely pulled the number eight from his nether regions, and his staff was then forced to come up with eight conflicts that he could claim to have ended. That might explain the inclusion of these two non-existent wars on the list.

Trump's preference for creating an illusion that supports what he would like reality to be rather than what it is has extended to wars as well. After U.S. forces sided with Israel in attacking Iran's alleged nuclear sites, Trump declared the facilities totally destroyed and even issued a formal White House statement saying the facilities had been "obliterated." However, an official assessment by the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency found that Iran's nuclear program had only been set back by a few months. Rather than conform his own views to those of the experts, Trump fired the head of the agency.

On Christmas Day, Trump launched attacks on targets in Nigeria. Again, the facts of this attack are confused and disputed. Trump claims to have attacked militants linked to the Islamic State group, whom Trump blames for killing Christians. He called the attack a "Christmas present," though Nigerian officials said the operation had "nothing to do with a particular religion" and did not have "anything to do with Christmas." Press reports showed munitions apparently fired by U.S. jets had hit a field near a village far from the region the U.S. claimed to have attacked and one that has no militant presence. The U.S. Africa Command issued a statement that even misspelled the name of the region said to have been targeted. There is literally nothing about this attack that is known with any certainty and Trump's words simply can't be believed.

Trump, the "Peace President," has also launched attacks against Yemen, which involved more than 1,000 strikes in March and April. Leaked transcripts of a Signal chat involving Secretary of the Department of Defense Pete Hegseth, Vice President and reply guy JD Vance, and other top officials showed that administration officials were not even sure what the purpose of the attacks was. Trump claimed that the attacks ended in the Houthis agreeing to stop firing missiles, but they attacked Israel again within days.

Trump has launched at least 120 strikes against Somalia and one ground raid. This would probably be news to most Americans as the attacks have received very little media coverage. Similarly, Trump has attacked targets in Syria at least 78 times. When two U.S. service members and an interpreter were recently killed in Syria, it may well have been the first time that most Americans learned that the U.S. even has forces in the country. As described above, the U.S. sided with Israel in attacking Iran. In addition, the U.S. has launched at least one strike against Iraq.

In the Caribbean Sea and Eastern Pacific Ocean, the Trump administration has been involved in a series of attacks against targets that Trump alleges are drug dealers attempting to smuggle fentanyl into the United States. However, it is almost undisputed that Trump is lying about who is being killed. Almost no fentanyl comes from Venezuela, the country that Trump claims is the source of the drugs he is targeting. Moreover, U.S. officials have testified to Congress that at least one shipment was destined for Suriname in South America while others were headed to Europe. While Trump has claimed that there is strong evidence showing that those who have been killed were drug smugglers, when survivors were rescued after one attack, they were released rather than charged with crimes.

One of the most perplexing events occurred in recent days when Trump told right-wing radio host John Catsimatidis that, regarding Venezuela, "I don’t know if you read or you saw, they have a big plant or big facility where the ships come from: Two nights ago we knocked that out. So we hit them very hard." Up to that point, the public had not been aware of any such U.S. attack. Moreover, if true, the attack would be a significant escalation and would represent an undisputed act of war — a war that has not been authorized by Congress. Reporters understandably had a host of questions. Had there really been such an attack or was this something that Trump, whose brain is basically mush at this point, simply conjured from his imagination?

Yesterday morning, multiple corporate media outlets carried reports about Trump's remarks, but none could actually confirm that there had been such an attack. Yesterday evening, CNN reported that the CIA had carried out a drone strike on a port facility on the coast of Venezuela. This raised the specter that Trump had revealed a secret intelligence operation. Throughout the day yesterday, Trump doubled down on his claims about the strike. During his meeting with Netanyahu, Trump told a reporter that "We hit all the boats and now we hit ... the implementation area." As Marisa Kabas of The Handbasket points out, Trump may have seen reports of a fire at a Primazol facility that online rumors had attributed to an U.S. attack. However, Primazol issued a statement saying the fire had been accidental and quickly controlled. Kabas writes:

How the president could see an online rumor about his own country and take it at face value is something beyond my comprehension, but as a man who’s displayed extreme cognitive difficulties in recent months, it’s possible he just got confused.

Because the United States is currently led by a mad king surrounded by courtiers who are afraid to tell him that he has no clothes, we currently have no idea what, if anything, happened in Venezuela. Trump may have initiated an unauthorized land war, he may have revealed a covert operation, or he may have simply confused Internet rumors or unrelated events. We don't know, and administration officials will run cover for Trump regardless. This is far beyond the so-called "fog of war." This is the result of having a cognitively impaired president who invents his own reality and then has officials who will seek to create that reality rather than correct him. As Kabas aptly puts it:

As is often the case with a story involving Trump, it’s near impossible to parse fiction presented as fact from actual facts. He is equal parts reckless and stupid, and it’s hard to know which is at play at any given time—if not both. When it comes to the Venezuela facility strike story, either Trump revealed a covert operation, got confused or amplified an internet lie. Regardless, we need to know which one it was.