Blame Biden

When Zohran Mamdani, Mikie Sherrill, and Abigail Spanberger led a wave of Democratic victories in November by campaigning on affordability, the administration of cult leader, convicted felon, and failed President Donald Trump got the message. Something needed to be done about rising prices. After all, one of Trump's primary campaign issues had been the price of eggs. However, consumers were finding that under the Trump administration, almost everything was more expensive. This created a dilemma for the Trump officials. One of the main causes of rising prices was Trump's signature tariff policy. The quickest way to contain prices would be to abandon Trump's tariffs, but that was something that Trump would not consider. The administration did eventually reverse tariffs on coffee, tea, bananas, beef, and a few other food items, but tariffs remained a key policy. In the absence of acceptable options for lowering, or even stabilizing prices, the Trump administration decided that they would address affordability through messaging. Briefly, administration officials took to the airwaves to assure Americans that they felt their pain and were working night and day to confront the problem of affordability. This message was undercut by their boss. Trump, instead of focusing on affordability in the U.S., bailed out Argentina and, in the process, provided assistance to Argentinian soybean farmers and cattle ranchers while harming the interests of U.S. farmers. Ultimately, Trump would drive a spike through the heart of the administration's message by declaring that affordability was a "hoax." The administration then settled on a new message: It's all the fault of former President Joe Biden.

For the past couple of weeks, administration officials have repeatedly blamed Biden for just about everything. Inflation is high? Blame Biden. China is not buying U.S. soybeans? Blame Biden. Air travel is a mess? Blame Biden. Unemployment is high? Blame Biden. The uniform message coming from Trump administration officials is that Biden put them in a deep hole from which they are digging. Next year, they assure us, will be great. The problem with these claims is that they are all lies. Far from leaving behind a hole, Biden left the Trump administration an economy that the Economist called the "envy of the world." This is not to say that everything during the Biden administration was great, but Biden had established a solid economic foundation and had things going in the right direction. All Trump had to do was nothing. He could not change a thing and reap the rewards of Biden's policies. Unfortunately for us, Trump chose another strategy.

Let's review the economic record of the Biden administration. First, remember that Biden took office in the midst of a global pandemic that had disrupted the global economy. Biden is often blamed for massive infusions of cash into the economy that are said to have spurred inflation. However, two of the three rounds of stimulus checks took place during the first Trump administration. Similarly, both rounds of the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) took place under Trump. When Biden took office, there were two schools of thought among his advisors. One was to accept high unemployment for a short period (one to five years) in order to control inflation and then allow for recovery. The second was to seek massive investment to spur growth. According to this second group, any resulting inflation would be transitory. Biden chose the second option. The trade-off was always job losses versus inflation, and Biden decided that the risk of short-term inflation was preferable to massive job losses.

Biden's economic plan was outlined by his Build Back Better Plan, which had three components: 1) the American Rescue Plan (ARP); 2) the American Jobs Plan (AJP), and 3) the American Families Plan (AFP). The American Rescue Plan would become law in March 2021. It was aimed at stimulating economic recovery from the pandemic. The law significantly strengthened the "safety net," protecting lower-income families. The American Jobs Plan was rolled into what was called the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL), that was signed into law in November 2021. As its name implies, the law contained massive investments in roads, bridges, airports, and other infrastructure. The American Families Plan had a complex legislative history but eventually ended up as part of the Inflation Reduction Act, which was signed into law in August 2022. The IRA aimed to lower prescription drug prices, reduce the deficit, and increase energy investment, especially in clean energy. In addition, Biden passed the CHIPS and Science Act, which he signed in August 2022. This law provided billions of funding for domestic research and manufacturing of semiconductors and other STEM projects.

While not perfect, it is difficult to see Biden's record as anything other than fabulously successful. He strengthened America's social and economic safety net, addressed widespread infrastructure needs — and the jobs that go along with such projects — and stimulated massive investments in U.S. production, particularly in green energy and semiconductors. The number of factories that were in progress as a result of Biden's policies is demonstrated by how many are now being cancelled or delayed due to Trump's withdrawal of support for such programs. Biden was delivering an economy for the future. Trump has reversed course.

The bugaboo of the Biden administration, or more correctly for Biden's critics, was inflation. While this reached a peak in July 2022, a year after that it had stabilized at around 3% or slightly lower than it is now. Those that had said that inflation would be transitory were proven to have been essentially correct. However, an outbreak of avian influenza led to the culling of many chickens and a resulting increase in the price of eggs. This was seized upon by Biden's critics, especially Trump.

Again, this is not to suggest that things were perfect. While the country's economy was in good shape and improving, families were not necessarily feeling the same success. Jobs were available, but for many making ends meet required having two or three jobs. Paychecks simply weren't going far enough for much of the country. However, Trump could have built on what Biden started and been successful. Instead, he destroyed what Biden had created.

As I said in the beginning of this post, the Trump administration's new economic plan is to blame Biden. It is almost entirely built on lies. Yesterday, Trump announced a $12 billion bailout for U.S. farmers. This is necessary because, in response to Trump's tariffs, China stopped buying U.S. soybeans. Let's be clear: tariffs are a tax on U.S. consumers. Trump is now taking some of that tax money and giving it to a preferred voting block to address a problem that he caused. This is a redistribution of tax dollars aimed at shoring up support among a favored constituency. But rather than admit that the $12 billion is being used to solve a problem that Trump caused in the first place, the administration is blaming Biden. Just today, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told Newsmax that Trump had convinced Chinese leader Xi Jinping to start purchasing U.S. soybeans, "something China wasn't doing under the last administration." In fact, China bought $12.6 billion worth of U.S. soybeans last year.

Leavitt also lied during an interview with Fox and Friends on Fox News. In this case, she said that Trump had inherited "the worst inflation crisis in modern American history from the Biden administration." In fact, inflation had dropped significantly during the later part of the Biden administration and was actually lower when Trump took over than it is now. Biden left Trump with low inflation, which Trump has increased.

It is not only Leavitt who is blaming Biden. This message is being spread across the board by Trump officials, even when it is improbable. For instance, yesterday, the Secretary of Agriculture, Brooke Rollins, was on Fox Business claiming that Trump was addressing "our food mess we inherited from Joe Biden." In fact, as stated earlier, Trump's tariffs have had a massive impact on food prices. So much so that, again as said above, he reversed some of them. Food prices have largely increased since Trump took office, and his policies have only made things worse.

Beyond blaming Biden, Trump officials don't seem to have a clue about how to address affordability. Yesterday, Secretary of Transportation Sean Duffy and Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr. held a press conference at Reagan National Airport to announce new initiatives regarding air travel. Duffy's previous big idea was to encourage travellers to dress up when flying. Yesterday, Duffy suggested that what travellers really need are places to work out at airports. Both Duffy and Kennedy tried, but failed, to perform pull-ups. Both demonstrated the awkwardness of men in suits attempting to work out. When Duffy was asked if he had any ideas for addressing the affordability of airport food, his response was "I don't have a plan to reduce costs". Duffy's vision for travel is apparently nicely-dressed, but sweaty, travellers overpaying for food. I can't say that sounds appealing.

The Trump administration is fully engaged in trying to rewrite history and convince us that they inherited a devastated economy from Biden that they are forced to rebuild. In fact, the economy that Biden left Trump was the "envy of the world" and could have provided Trump tremendous success. Instead, Trump systematically destroyed it. Worst of all, because the root of Trump's problems with the economy is his signature tariff plan, the entire administration is forced to engage in a charade around the issue. It is a classic case of the king having no clothes and his courtiers being afraid to tell him. For instance, when announcing the $12 billion bailout for farmers yesterday, Trump gloated that "This money would not be possible without tariffs ... because of tariffs, this is possible." The officials on either side of him were suddenly distracted straightening wrinkles on their clothing or staring off into space. They, like us, were fully aware that without tariffs, there would be no need for a bailout. Trump can't fix the economy because he won't admit that his prized policy is the problem. As a result, the only plan is to blame Biden.