Marjorie Taylor Greene

Yesterday I provided background on the fissures that have started appearing within the MAGA movement. The topics of Israel, Jews, and Jeffrey Epstein have become very divisive with MAGA personalities establishing battle lines between themselves along those issues. Moreover, cult leader, convicted felon, and failed President Donald Trump has significantly diverged from MAGA orthodoxy, causing some MAGA supporters to reconsider Trump's leadership of the movement. Trump's cognitive decline and likely health issues, along with his detachment from the MAGA agenda, have resulted in Trump being weaker than he has ever been. The result is that ambitious Republicans are preparing for the succession battle ahead.

One of the first major MAGA personalities to openly split with Trump, at least on some issues, was Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene. Greene has undergone a remarkable transformation since entering Congress in 2021. At the time of her election, Greene was widely considered to be the first QAnon member of Congress. She was lampooned as a critic of "Jewish space lasers" after she questioned whether the Rothschilds might be starting California's wildfires with space-based lasers. She remains to this day convinced that intentional modification of the weather is responsible for many of the natural disasters that have struck the country. As a result of the many wacky conspiracy theories in which she believed, Greene was stripped of her committee assignments during her first term.

One of the QAnon beliefs that Greene appears to have retained is the conviction that a wealthy and powerful elite group of pedophiles has considerable influence over the government. As such, she strongly supports the release of the Epstein files. She was one of only three Republicans to sign Representative Thomas Massie's discharge petition to release the Epstein files (other than Massie himself). This put her at odds with Trump, who was fighting the release of the files. Some Greene critics claim that she was planning to run for either the Senate or the governorship of Georgia, but was discouraged by Trump's lack of support. According to those critics, this is what explains Greene's transition into a Trump critic. Greene denies this allegation. Whatever the truth, when the government shutdown in the beginning of October due to the failure to pass a funding bill, Greene launched an intense effort to reinvent herself.

Making one television appearance after another, including an episode of "The View," Greene sought to put her radical past behind her and present a new persona in which she championed polite disagreement and respect. Greene may have been inspired by the widely-held view, if not quite the reality, of Charlie Kirk as an advocate for respectful debate. The veneration of Kirk after his murder may have shown Greene that there is a lane for someone who can emulate Kirk's reputation for being respectful of opponents while simultaneously challenging their views. Greene was suddenly willing to meet her critics face-to-face and, instead of attacking them with wild accusations as she might once have done, smiled, spoke softly, and claimed that she was committed to being a role model demonstrating the nice treatment of opponents. More than one person has mentioned that Greene's tone is so different that even her appearance is different. She sounds, acts, and even looks much nicer than she did in the past.

Greene has had a penchant for knowing where public opinion is going and getting there first. Moreover, because she has established a massive grassroots funding operation, she has become a fundraising juggernaut. Unlike most politicians, she does not have to rely on wealthy campaign contributors or political action committees controlled by others. To the contrary, Greene is often a source of funds for other candidates. The result is that Greene is free to follow her instincts, and her instincts are often pretty good. When the government shut down, most Republicans were convinced that Democrats would take the blame. In fact, polls consistently showed that the public blamed Republicans. Greene seemed to sense this before it was demonstrated by the polls and almost immediately began criticizing Speaker of the House of Representatives Mike Johnson for closing the House during the shutdown. Moreover, she became outspoken in her insistence that Republicans must offer a serious alternative to Obamacare and repeatedly scolded Johnson for not having a healthcare plan.

As I wrote yesterday, Trump has abandoned large parts of the MAGA agenda. While true MAGAs abhor foreign interventions, Trump has launched military operations against Yemen and Iran, and he is threatening war against Venezuela and Nigeria. Trump once promised to build a wall, and many MAGAs are critical of his failure to do so. While Trump generally gets good reviews among MAGAs for his immigration policies, his wavering position on H1-B visas that allow foreign workers has upset many of his supporters. Trump has both introduced a $100,000 fee for H1-B visas and said that we must have H1-B workers because Americans don’t have the needed talent. Trump has also supported allowing a large number of Chinese students to attend U.S. universities. His support for Argentina to the disadvantage of American farmers has also tarnished Trump's America First credentials. Even Trump's signature policy, tariffs, has become unpopular.

Greene has also frequently complained about the treatment of Republican women in Congress by Republican men. In October, Greene told the Washington Post that "There’s a lot of weak Republican men, and they’re more afraid of strong Republican women...So they always try to marginalize the strong Republican women that actually want to do something and actually want to achieve." Apparently, Greene decided that she was not going to take it anymore and began to challenge the men, including Johnson and Trump, directly. In Greene's view, the men are making a bunch of mistakes, and she is going to speak up about it.

This is pure speculation, but I get the feeling that Greene sees two different visions for the future of the Republican Party. One is represented by Trump, world-class hater Stephen Miller, Immigration Czar Tom Homan, Border Control thug Gregory Bovino, and former Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski, who is effectively running the Department of Homeland Security these days. This group represents a mixture of tough masculinity and meanness. They are the ones that will deport your grandmother and tear gas you when you complain. The other vision is, as I said above, based on the glorified view of Charlie Kirk. In this view, Republican policies can be advanced through polite discussion. There is no need to be mean and angry. Greene must have realized that she was not going to out-masculine the men and she might not have had the stomach to out-mean them (though many of her past actions suggest she would have been comfortable trying), but there was an opening for her to become the smiling face of MAGA who prefers respectful debate over brute force.

On the issues, Greene is more aligned with MAGA orthodoxy than is Trump currently. Greene asserts a complete and total commitment to America first. She is against foreign wars. She is against supporting Israel and its genocide in Gaza. She was actually the first Member of Congress to label Israel's actions a "genocide." She opposes the bailout of Argentina. As I said above, she was an early critic of the Republican position on healthcare, understanding the terrible financial impact of ending the ACA health insurance subsidies. And, again, she supports the release of the Epstein files. While Trump is busy building a ballroom, renovating a bathroom, and lobbying for a Nobel Peace Prize, Greene is demonstrating that she is a true MAGA.

Not surprisingly, Greene's positions eventually provoked anger from Trump. Trump has posted diatribes about Greene on Truth Social. He has introduced two nicknames. The first was Marjorie Taylor Brown, saying that green turns brown when it rots. He then switched to Marjorie Traitor Greene, a nickname that all-around crazy person Laura Loomer claims to have invented. Trump wrote that he has withdrawn his endorsement of Greene and will support a primary opponent against her. Greene is not backing down and, while claiming that she still supports Trump, is continuing to advocate policies that Trump opposes. Notably, Greene was declared a traitor for supporting the release of the Epstein files. Now Trump claims to support the same position. Greene seems to have come out on the winning side of that fight, though it is not clear that Trump will be gracious in defeat.

Greene's rising profile might have inspired Senator Ted Cruz to launch a trial balloon for his own candidacy for president. This week, Axios reported that Cruz was laying the groundwork for a presidential run. Cruz has become a vocal critic of Tucker Carlson and other Republican critics of Israel. He supports Trump's foreign interventions. This contrasts with Vice President and reply guy JD Vance, who supports Carlson, even employing Carlson's son Buckley on his staff. Vance famously defended remarks by DOGE staffer Marko Elez that were derogatory towards Indians and marriage outside one's ethnicity. Vance is, of course, married to an Indian woman. Vance remained silent when Nick Fuentes, who Carlson recently hosted for a friendly interview, insulted Vance's wife and kids. But when a MAGA influencer was critical of Buckley Carlson, Vance took to X to defend him. Referring to Sloan Rachmuth as a "scumbag," Vance said that she had "decided to obsessively attack a staffer in his 20s because she doesn't like the views of his father." It is notable that Vance tolerates criticism of his wife and kids, but will not stand for negative remarks about Buckley Carlson.

Cruz and Vance are two of the least likable individuals imaginable. Both seem completely fake and more than willing to do or say anything to get ahead. Greene may well have completely reinvented herself a month ago, but she still exudes 100 times the authenticity of either of the two men. When it comes to challenging Trump, Greene is holding her own. Vance won't even attempt it, and Cruz has a legacy of having Trump call his wife ugly and his father an assassin and then responding by bending the knee to Trump. Vance and Cruz might primp in front of mirrors while imagining themselves as tough he-men, but neither one can measure up to Greene when it comes to challenging Trump. While neither Cruz nor Vance seems willing to stand up for their wives, Greene's current boyfriend, who works as a reporter in the White House and, therefore, depends on Trump's good graces, posted on X to demonstrate his devotion to Greene. I don't think that there is any doubt that, if the roles were reversed, Greene herself would not have been silent.

Steve Jobs of Apple Computer used to quote hockey player Wayne Gretzky as saying that you must skate to where the puck is going, not where it is. Most politicians are only willing to go where public opinion already is, as measured by polls, surveys, and focus groups. Greene, on the other hand, appears to rely more on her instincts and tries to get out ahead of conventional wisdom. The question now is whether she can survive Trump's wrath. Trump tends to win through bullying and intimidation. He was able to ward off threats presented by Elon Musk by threatening Musk's government contracts. But Trump holds very little leverage over Greene. She may well turn out to be a more formidable opponent than either Musk or Cruz. Her more immediate target, however, may be Mike Johnson.