A Third Term for Trump?

Even during his first term in office, cult leader, convicted felon, and failed President Donald Trump was talking about a third term as president. For instance, speaking at a campaign rally in August 2020, Trump said "We are going to win four more years and then after that, we’ll go for another four years because they spied on my campaign. We should get a redo of four years." Trump would go on to lose the election three months later, but that would not stop him from talking about serving three terms. In May 2024, while campaigning again for the presidency, Trump told a meeting of the National Rifle Association that "You know, FDR 16 years — almost 16 years — he was four terms. I don’t know, are we going to be considered three-term? Or two-term?" Many in the audience answered "Three." Days after winning the November 2020 election, Trump met with Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives and, again, brought up the topic of a third term, saying "I suspect I won’t be running again unless you say, ‘He’s so good we’ve got to figure something else out.’" In a statement yesterday, Trump appeared to have given up on the idea of a third term. But, has he?

Soon after taking office, Trump began stocking the Oval Office with "Trump 2028" hats. Trump often made an effort to point out the hats to visitors. For instance, during a meeting in August with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and other European leaders, Trump showed off one of the hats. More recently, while meeting with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries to discuss how to avoid a government shutdown, two of the hats suddenly appeared on Trump's desk in front of Schumer and Jeffries. Trump may have been hoping to taunt the two Democrats, but Jeffries acted first. He turned to Vice President and reply guy JD Vance and asked, "Hey, bro, you got a problem with this?" Vance could do nothing but chuckle.

As with many things involving Trump, there are different interpretations of what Trump is hoping to achieve with his frequent references to a third term. Given that the Trump administration mainly consists of Internet trolls, or in the case of Vance, a wannabe troll, the default assumption must always be that Trump is simply trolling. But for Trump, trolling is often a means for plausible deniability. Trump can float a trial balloon and, if it goes over badly, he will claim to have only been joking while his supporters taunt his opponents for being "triggered". Trump's opponents have suggested that Trump has been laying the ground for an attempt for a third term and is serious about the prospect. They note the frequency with which Trump brings up the idea and suggest that this indicates a real fixation rather than attempts at joking or trolling.

Last week, Steve Bannon, currently a right-wing podcaster who once served in the Trump White House, told The Economist that there is "a plan" to secure a third term for Trump. Trump is constitutionally prevented from running for a third term by the 22nd Amendment that says "no person shall be elected to the office of the president more than twice". Bannon asserted that "At the appropriate time, we’ll lay out what the plan is. But there is a plan." Bannon also hinted that the plan might involve a higher power, saying that Trump is an "instrument of divine will". Bannon argued that "Trump is going to be president in ’28, and people ought to just get accommodated with that". Assuming that Trump is still alive in 2028, he most assuredly will be president in because his current term ends in January 2029. Whether Bannon was simply trying to be cute or is just one of many Trump supporters — as well as Trump himself — who struggles with dates is not clear.

This week while on his way to Asia, Trump was asked about a third term. He would not rule out such a thing, instead saying that "I would love to do it. I have the best numbers ever." For the record, polls show that Trump is recording his worst approval ratings ever. In this instance, there was no indication that Trump was joking. To the contrary, he appeared to be serious.

Also during the flight to Asia, Trump was asked about the theory that he might run for Vice President and then obtain a third presidential term if the President resigned. Trump responded by saying "Yeah, I'd be allowed to do that. But I would rule that out because it's too cute." The suggestion that this scheme would work is increasingly accepted among Trump supporters and, apparently, by Trump himself. Almost all legal scholars reject the idea. As noted above, the 22nd Amendment prohibits anyone from being elected for more than two terms. In addition, the final sentence of the 12th Amendment says that "No person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States." Therefore, if Trump is not allowed to serve a third presidential term, he should also be ineligible to be vice president. Not so fast, say a small minority of legal scholars. They note that the 22nd Amendment refers to being "elected" to office. Clearly, Trump cannot be elected to a third term. The 12th Amendment, however, discusses eligibility rather than electability. The 22nd Amendment does not say that a president who has served two terms is ineligible, only that he cannot be elected. If Trump were to run as vice president and win, and the presidential candidate then resigned, Trump would assume the presidency not via election, but rather succession. Trump might go even further and get himself elected Speaker of the House of Representatives. Then, if both the President and the Vice President simultaneously resigned, Trump would become President for a third term. But these scenarios require Trump to put immense trust in figures for whom he would likely be loath to do so, probably correctly.

With the increased focus on a possible third term for Trump, Speaker of the House Mike Johnson appears to have stepped in. He said that he and Trump "have talked about the constrictions of the Constitution". Then yesterday, he told reporters that Trump was having fun trolling Democrats with "Trump 2028" hats but that he didn't see "a path for" a third term. Johnson blamed the need to amend the Constitution, which would take too long. Trump then reacted as if he had been informed of the 22nd Amendment for the first time, saying "If you read it, it’s pretty clear". He then went on to lament that "I’m not allowed to run. It’s too bad." But then he added, "So we’ll see what happens." Past history suggests that when Trump says that we will see what happens, what will happen will be exactly the thing he has appeared to have ruled out. So, while Trump suggests that he may finally have come to terms with his inability to run for a third term, he does not seem to have closed the door completely.

Trump has been musing about a third term for years. While he now appears to recognize that the 22nd Amendment prevents him from running for a third term, it is not clear that he has completely given up on the idea. We will have to wait to see if Bannon's plan materializes. Democrats, for their part, are probably less worried about Trump running — polls suggest that he would be easily defeated — or any of the fancy schemes involving the vice presidency. Rather, they are worried that Trump will simply not allow free elections. With Trump being increasingly vocal about sending the National Guard and federal law enforcement officers to Democratic cities, and Trump's open desire to take control of voting operations, his plans for a third term may not involve free elections or the Constitution at all.