Trump Exploits the Shutdown to Strengthen his Autocracy

Some of the authoritarian steps taken by cult leader, convicted felon, and failed President Donald Trump are pretty obvious. For instance, unilaterally deciding to tear down the East Wing of the White House without telling anyone, let alone consulting with others. In fact, Trump lied about his plans and claimed that the original structure would not be touched. Similarly, Trump has ordered the military to destroy boats in the Caribbean Sea and Pacific Ocean without clear legal authority to do so. When two victims of one such attack survived, the Trump administration apparently did not have any evidence with which to charge them with a crime, and the individuals were, instead, released to their home countries. This draws into question the validity of administration claims that the boats are being used to smuggle drugs. In other cases, however, Trump's authoritarian efforts are less visible. Today, I am going to discuss how Trump's treatment of federal employees during the government shutdown is strengthening his autocratic rule.

By way of background, let's review how we found ourselves in this situation. The so-called "power of the purse," or the ability to appropriate funds, lies with Congress. The normal process is that each committee in the House of Representatives and the Senate approves an appropriations bill, which is then sent to the President to be signed into law. The last time that this happened was under then-President Joe Biden. In March, the House and Senate approved a continuing resolution that Trump signed. This basically extended Fiscal Year 2024 spending through the end of FY2025, which was September 31. In September, the House passed another short-term CR, but the measure failed to pass the Senate when most Democratic senators voted against cloture, in other words filibustering the bill. This led to the current government shutdown. To be clear, the government is closed because there is no money appropriated to operate it.

Nobody wants the government to immediately stop functioning. Therefore, during such shutdowns, some employees are designated as essential and asked to continue working in order to keep critical governmental functions operating. For the most part, these employees are expected to work without pay because, again, there is no money with which to pay them. The rest of the governmental employees are furloughed and sent home. In practice, all employees, both essential and those who were furloughed, have been paid once funding was restored and the government reopened. In 2019, Congress passed a measure which then-President Trump signed, codifying this practice and requiring backpay after a government shutdown. This has been the "normal" practice.

During his second term, Trump has been anything but normal. When he lost reelection, Trump staged an insurgency in an attempt to remain in office. Upon returning to the White House, Trump appears to be single-mindedly focused on ensuring that he is not forced from office again. In this regard, he is using the government shutdown as an opportunity to strengthen ties to the military and law enforcement. Potentially creating loyalty to himself. One way Trump is doing this is the manipulation of funds with which to pay government employees, including the military. As the Washington Post reported yesterday, "The Trump administration is creating a two-tier system within the shuttered federal government, paying some staffers required to be on the job even as it leaves many of their colleagues working without salaries." Trump has been using funds through questionable, possibly unlawful, means to pay select employees. He paid the military by using funds appropriated for research. This sort of reallocation is normally not legal. Members of the Coast Guard were paid using funds reallocated from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The Post also reports that "Secret Service, air marshals, and law enforcement officers working for U.S. Customs and Border Protection and ICE would soon receive" payments, and FBI special agents will also be paid, though the source of this money is not clear.

Trump has been openly partisan in choosing which employees are deemed essential and, therefore, required to work. For instance, Treasury employees necessary to arrange the $20 billion bailout of Argentina were considered essential. Another example was reported by The Guardian:

As of this week, gun owners will be able to restart purchases of some of the most highly regulated weapons in the US, with the return to work of federal employees responsible for regulating the items now reclassified as “essential”. They include silencers, short-barreled rifles and vintage machine-guns produced before 1986.

Trump is using his discretion as to who is designated as "essential" to ensure that Republican priorities are addressed while allowing programs favored by Democrats to lapse. He is also taking this process a step further by finding methods for paying the groups that he prioritizes the most.

The Washington Post described what Trump is doing as creating a "two-tier" system. Really, Trump has created 4 tiers. The bottom tier consists of federal employees who were furloughed but then fired. Trump openly stated that "these are largely people that the Democrats want." In other words, he targeted the reductions in force at those employed in programs supported by Democrats. The next tier is those who have simply been furloughed and are currently sitting at home wondering when this will all end. These employees generally work on tasks that Trump doesn't care much about. Next is the group of employees deemed essential but about whom Trump doesn't care enough to pay. The top tier, of course, are the employees that Trump has found a way to provide salaries.

The tiers can be explained very easily. The highest tiers consist of those essential to Trump maintaining control. The second tier are those who help provide services important to Republicans so that Trump's base doesn't get angry with him. The bottom tiers are those employees that don't directly contribute to Trump's priorities or work on tasks that Trump dislikes. The point here is that nobody is being categorized based on the importance of their work, but rather due to their value to Trump. That is the behavior of a dictator.

Today, Senate Republicans will engage in their own attempt to create a tiered system. Republicans plan to introduce legislation that will appropriate funds to immediately begin paying the salaries of those who have been declared essential and who are currently working. This would have the effect of strengthening Trump's use of the shutdown to reward supporters and punish opponents (at least as he perceives them). Senate Democrats are expected to filibuster this bill and, instead, introduce their own version that would pay the salaries of all employees, including those who are furloughed. Republicans will defeat that bill. As a result, the only thing that will be accomplished is that each side will get new talking points blaming the other for the shutdown.

Because Trump cares little about the law, he is able to manipulate the government shutdown to his own advantage. Trump would be severely constrained if Republicans in the House and Senate would retake control of spending. The more they allow Trump to ignore the law, the more he is emboldened to act as a king. Trump's most powerful weapon is the weakness of Republican legislators. Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Speaker of the House Mike Johnson are so afraid of Trump that they cannot act without his blessing. A bipartisan spending bill could easily pass both chambers if Thune and Johnson stopped cowering in fear and began acting like they lead an equal branch of government. Instead, they have chosen subservience to Trump and, in the process, sacrificed much of Congress's power.