Declining Republican Support for Israel

Yesterday I wrote about shifting attitudes towards Israel among Democrats. A similar change of opinion is occurring among Republicans. In both parties, the shift in support has been most noticeable among the young and the grassroots. However, whereas elected Democratic officials are themselves starting to reflect the changing landscape, Republican officials are mostly continuing to stand strongly by Israel. A key factor among Republicans is the role played by cult leader, convicted felon, and failed President Donald Trump. For the most part, Trump has been providing complete support to Israel — even going to war twice on the country's behalf. Republicans, who tend to unquestionably adopt Trump's positions, have therefore had little reason to deviate from their pro-Israel stances. However, two factors are causing dissension among some Republicans: the isolationist trend among many party members and the role of Christianity.

As a candidate for president, Trump often claimed that, had he been president, the war in Gaza would not have started. He promised to quickly "work it out" and "restore stability in the Middle East." Many Trump supporters were convinced that he would end current wars and avoid new ones. They believed that Trump's "America First" posture included the avoidance of foreign military entanglements. While Trump has demonstrated the occasional frustration with Israel, or more specifically Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, he has almost completely backed Israel at every instance. Obviously, Trump has not ended the war in Gaza, and stability in the Middle East is far from restored. Trump has attacked both Yemen and Iran on Israel's behalf, engaging in exactly the type of foreign military adventures many of his supporters expected him to avoid.

The U.S. attack on Iran turned out to be relatively limited, apparently failing even to accomplish its goals since 2 out of the 3 Iranian nuclear facilities meant to be destroyed survived. Therefore, instead of being a continuing source of division among Republicans, it has mostly become an opportunity for chest-thumping, if not forgotten about altogether. But, in the build-up to the attack, there was clear opposition to coming to Israel's assistance. For instance, Steve Bannon warned Trump to be cautious and argued that "The Israelis have to finish what they started". But the cult-like nature of the MAGA movement means that most Trump supporters have simply followed his lead. As Trump said at the time, "My supporters are more in love with me today, and I'm in love with them more than they were even at election time." Even Bannon conceded that if Trump attacked Iran, "the MAGA movement will support President Trump."

Nevertheless, there are indications that the isolationist wing of the MAGA movement is not happy about Trump's embrace of Israel and Netanyahu. In addition to Bannon, Tucker Carlson has become a staunch critic of Israel. According to the Guardian, "At a political conference in Florida earlier this month, Carlson devoted much of a 45-minute speech to criticizing the Trump administration and the conservative establishment from the right – for being too close to Israel...". Carlson has also been strongly critical of Trump with regard to the Jeffrey Epstein files and suggested that Epstein worked for Mossad, the Israeli spy agency. Podcaster Joe Rogan has also become very critical of Israel's war in Gaza and blasted Trump for his continued support of the fighting.

Frequently, criticism from Republicans for U.S. support for Israel is due to U.S. financial support. The U.S. provides billions of dollars annually to Israel and, in addition, periodic additional aid to assist Israel in military conflicts. At a time when the U.S. government services are being reduced, many are unhappy with this high level of financial support. The most vocal has been Republican Representative Thomas Massie, who recently said "Israel's war in Gaza is so lopsided that there's no rational argument American taxpayers should be paying for it." Massie is a bit of a crank who opposes almost all spending, so he can probably be brushed off. But similar criticisms have been appearing elsewhere.

The second issue that is provoking Republican opposition to Israel is the presence of Palestinian Christians. Very early in the Gaza war, Israel bombed the Greek Orthodox Church of Saint Porphyrius, killing 18 Palestinian civilians. However, this attack did not seem to have much impact among MAGA adherents. But when Israel recently shelled the Catholic Holy Family Catholic Church in Gaza, there was a fairly significant backlash. Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene reacted by introducing an amendment to cut $500 million in U.S. funding for Israel’s missile defense system. Similarly, while there has been an upsurge in attacks by Israeli settlers on Palestinians in the West Bank, MAGA mostly ignored those attacks until they hit Christian villages. Those attacks provoked considerable outrage among MAGAs. U.S. Ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, actually described one of the attacks as "terrorism". Even pro-Israel stalwart Senator Lindsey Graham was moved to say, "There was a Catholic church burned in the West Bank...What’s happening in the West Bank bothers the hell out of me" and demanded that the perpetrators be punished. Similarly, former Representative Matt Gaetz angrily remarked that "The truth is, this isn’t an isolated tragedy. It’s part of a pattern of Israeli settler attacks on Palestinian communities … torching of homes, farms and lives". He went on to say that the attackers are "protected by Israeli forces who are funded by U.S. tax dollars."

Greene recently posted a long tweet about a conversation that she had with a Christian pastor from Gaza. She pointed out that "Christians have been killed and injured, as well as many innocent people" and that "If you are an American Christian, this should be absolutely unacceptable to you." She went on to write, "And many of us, even though we are Christians, no longer want to fund and fight nuclear armed secular Israel’s wars especially when it leads to starving children and killing innocent people including Christians." Greene continued to list nearly the entire litany of MAGA grievances, deftly inserting her concerns about Israel into them. What Greene appeared to be doing is attempting to convince others that opposition to Israel is a natural part of the MAGA agenda. In addition, Greene recently became the first Republican in Congress to refer to Israel's actions in Gaza as "genocide."

As a recent "The Hill" article reported, "A recent Quinnipiac poll found Republican sympathy for Israel had dropped to 64 percent, down from 78 percent a year earlier." So while there is a measurable drop-off in support, Israel is still extremely popular among Republicans. However, the same is not necessarily true for young Republicans. A recent Pew Research poll found that "Among Republicans, much of the shift in attitudes has come among younger adults. Republicans under 50 are now about as likely to have a negative view of Israel as a positive one (50% vs. 48%)." To be clear, those numbers show that a majority of Republicans under 50 have a negative view of Israel. As MAGA podcaster Jack Posobiec told Axios, "What we are seeing on Israel is a generational split around the age of 40...Over 40 support, under 40 range from skeptical to wanting to cut all ties."

An interesting event occurred recently when Netanyahu, who has a habit of avoiding most media other than the most friendly outlets, appeared on an episode of the Nelk Boys podcast. Netanyahu received nothing but adulation and softball questions from the hosts. As Axios reports, "The backlash was swift and extraordinary: the Nelk Boys' own audience turned on them, accusing the hosts of platforming a war criminal and failing to ask meaningful questions." The reaction to the criticism by the Nelk Boys was also illuminating. They turned to known antisemites such as white nationalist Nick Fuentes and men’s rights podcaster Myron Gaines to present "the other side."

Even mainstream Republican influencers are noticing the drop in popularity for Israel. Axios quoted conservative radio host Megyn Kelly as saying, "Israel, whether it realizes it or not, has made itself the villain of the world in letting this thing go on so long. They have lost support among their dearest friends." Trump himself has apparently noticed. The Times of Israel reports that while speaking to a Jewish campaign donor, Trump said, "My people are starting to hate Israel."

As I noted in my post yesterday about Democrats, the narrative about Israel has turned from one portraying Israel as our democratic ally desperately fighting against terrorism to Israel now appearing to be a bully needlessly killing civilians and starving babies. There is some of this influencing Republicans as well, but they are also being motivated by Israel's attacks on Christians and the reliance by Israel on U.S. tax dollars. The result is a significant drop in Republican support for Israel, such that even Trump is unable to ignore it.