Israel's Efforts to Drag the U.S. into its War against Iran

An article in yesterday's New York Times titled, "How Trump Shifted on Iran Under Pressure From Israel", contained this paragraph:

For Mr. Netanyahu, the last several months brought to an end years of trying to cajole the United States into backing or at least tolerating his long-held desire to deal Iran’s nuclear program a crippling blow. He appears to have judged, correctly, that Mr. Trump would ultimately come around, if only grudgingly.

These two sentences touch on two undeniable facts that will likely play a crucial role in public perceptions of the Israel-Iran War if the United States becomes further involved, which seems likely to happen within the next few days. The first is that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long wanted to attack Iran's nuclear program and has consistently warned that Iran was very close to obtaining nuclear weapons. CNN recently put together a collection of video clips showing Netanyahu making such warnings as far back as 1996. The Daily Show did even better, creating its own compilation of clips that included one showing Netanyahu claiming in 1995 that Iran could produce a nuclear bomb in three to five years. The second fact is that cult leader, convicted felon, and failed President Donald Trump has opposed attacks on Iran and had to be very publicly pressured by the Israelis into condoning an Israeli attack and potentially launching U.S. attacks on Iran as well.

With regard to Netanyahu and his warnings, it is fair to ask why Trump or anyone else would put any faith in someone who has consistently been crying wolf and making predictions that proved to be wrong. Netanyahu was wrong in 1995, he was wrong in 1996, he has been wrong many times since, and he is probably wrong now. Indeed, just over a week ago, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard testified before Congress that Iran was not attempting to build a nuclear weapon. According to the New York Times article quoted above, senior administration officials are not aware of any intelligence supporting Netanyahu's current claim that Iran is rushing to build a bomb.

It is not just Netanyahu among the Israelis who is attempting to convince Trump to deploy American forces. Opposition leader Yair Lapid released a video in which he said that the "USA must join this campaign." The main highway in Tel Aviv has been adorned with massive posters saying, "Mr. President, Finish the job!" Israel's supporters in the U.S. have similarly sought to pressure Trump. Both the New York Times and Politico have emphasized the importance of the role played by conservative talk show host Mark Levin, who has strongly advocated for a U.S. role in fighting Iran. Therefore, while Netanyahu is certainly the primary instigator, he does not hold responsibility alone. 

The Israelis have been so successful in getting Trump to come around to their view of the threat presented by Iran that he is now ignoring U.S. intelligence. When Trump was asked about Gabbard's testimony that Iran is not pursuing a nuclear weapon, Trump responded by saying, "I don’t care what she said. I think they were very close to having a weapon." Trump then convened his top advisors at Camp David to discuss potential U.S. involvement in the Iran war, but notably didn't include Gabbard.

Israel appears to have had a step-by-step plan for sucking the U.S. into this war. First, they launched the war whether the U.S. wanted it or not based on the expectation that the U.S. would come to Israel's defense. This worked. The U.S. has participated in missile defense. U.S. support for Israel's actions has been such that Trump even got confused and wrote that "We now have complete and total control of the skies over Iran." The next step is to convince Trump that direct American involvement is necessary to knock out Iran's nuclear program, particularly the underground centrifuge locations. Trump may be convinced to take this step, believing that it will be determinate in ending the war and result in him being declared a hero of the West who ended Iran's nuclear program. More likely, however, is that Iran will retaliate against U.S. interests for any such U.S. attacks. Trump will then be faced with either responding to those attacks, and involving the U.S. deeper into the war, or not reacting to the attacks and appearing weak. Trump, who bristles over the TACO label, will easily be goaded into responding.

There are two possible outcomes to U.S. involvement in a war against Iran: 1) turning Iran into a failed state à la Libya, Afghanistan, and Syria, or; 2) occupying Iran in the manner that we did Iraq with the goal of creating a stable and marginally democratic state. Both of these outcomes are bad. When it becomes apparent to all that the U.S. has involved itself in a war that has no good endings, Trump will search for scapegoats. He won't have to search far because the Israelis are not only convenient fall guys, they are the actual instigators.

Where at one time suggesting that Israel was working to drag the U.S. into a war of its own making would be considered the stuff of conspiracy theories and likely be derided as antisemitic, this is undeniably what is happening and so widely understood that the mainstream media is producing behind-the-scenes looks at the process. U.S. and Israeli media are filled with statements by Israeli officials practically bragging about Israel's success in convincing Trump. The problem for Israel is if the U.S. gets involved and things go badly. Moreover, this could potentially be a problem for American Jews as well.

For some time, but especially since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack on Israel, there has been a concerted effort to equate criticism of Israel with antisemitism. The U.S. House of Representatives recently approved the Antisemitism Awareness Act, which codified reliance on the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance Working Definition of Antisemitism. This definition has been widely criticized, even by some Jewish groups, for containing several examples suggesting that criticism of Israel is antisemitic.

If the U.S. enters the war on behalf of Israel, there will certainly be complaints that the United States is doing Israel's bidding. This will be exponentially true if the war goes badly. While there will certainly be truth in such allegations, they also evoke the classic antisemitic trope of Jews pulling the strings of world leaders. As such, it can be expected that those blaming Israel for dragging the U.S. into the war will be branded as antisemites. There is a real danger that this could have an unintended fallout on the entire American Jewish community if opposition to the war comes to be seen as a form of hatred of Jews. The same voices who are currently so eager to convince us that criticism of Israel is antisemitic will become the loudest voices trying to disassociate Israel and its actions from Jews at large. Of course, it is incorrect and antisemitic to hold all Jews responsible for Israel's actions. But, it is similarly wrong to equate being anti-Israel with being antisemitic, and we have already gone pretty far down that path. We are now probably going to have to live with the consequences.

While there is still a chance that U.S. involvement in the war against Iran could be averted, it is becoming less likely by the hour. There is no denying that if the U.S. joins the fighting, it will be due to Israel's efforts to coerce Trump to enter the war. If, or more likely when, the war goes worse than expected, Trump will undoubtedly look for scapegoats. Are American Jews prepared for the day that Trump begins blaming Israel, and by extension those Jewish Americans who vocally supported the U.S. joining Israel's war, for the American blood and money being wasted fighting Iran? Israel doesn't represent all Jews, and Jews as a group are not responsible for Israel's actions. However, far too much effort has been devoted to blurring the line between Israel and Jews. That is one chicken that that is likely to unfortunately come home to roost in the not-too-distant future.