Don't Believe Elon Musk

If there is one thing that I would like readers to take from today's post, it is that Shadow President Elon Musk is a liar. Not just a run-of-the-mill liar who drops the occasional white lie or simple exaggeration, but a big-time, all-out falsehood-telling habitual liar. Therefore, when you see reports that Musk is stepping back from politics, I suggest taking them with more than a grain of salt. Musk's involvement in politics has had tremendous personal benefits for him, but there have also been downsides — especially the impact on Tesla. What Musk is likely trying to do is lower his profile to avoid the blowback as much as possible, while retaining access and influence in order to continue reaping the benefits of his involvement in politics.

Arguably, much of Musk's personal wealth is owed to his lies. For instance, as far back as 2013, Musk was predicting that Teslas would be capable of driving autonomously for 90% of the miles by 2016. In 2014, he shortened the prediction to 2015. Tesla didn't come close to meeting either of those expectations, but in 2015 Musk predicted full self-driving by 2018. Musk did not deliver on that promise either, but that year he did start a pattern of annual announcements that full self-driving would be available the next year. Tesla has still not produced a fully self-driving vehicle, but now one is promised for next month. The impact of these failed annual predictions, strangely enough, has not been to undermine confidence in Musk. Quite the contrary. Each time Musk makes one of these predictions, Tesla's stock surges. In fact, as assuredly as you can predict that the sun will rise in the East, you can expect that anytime Tesla's stock dips, Musk will issue another pronouncement that full self-driving is just about ready.

Tesla's self-driving capabilities are not the only thing about which Musk has routinely spread falsehoods. Travel to Mars is another. For years, Musk has been confidently promising that trips to Mars, both unmanned and manned, are just around the corner. This has helped him obtain investment in and contracts for SpaceX. In 2016, Musk outlined plans for manned missions to Mars by 2022. Also in 2016, SpaceX announced plans to send Red Dragon rockets to Mars by 2018. That program was eventually cancelled without a single launch. In 2018, Musk told Axios that there was a 70% chance that he personally would travel to Mars and that he hoped to move there. Musk now says that there will be crewed missions to Mars by 2028.

Then there is DOGE, or more formally, the U.S. DOGE Service. You would think that identifying the leader of a government office would not be a particularly difficult task. But in that case, you would not be familiar with either cult leader, convicted felon, and failed President Donald Trump or Musk. Both are inveterate liars. There are plenty of indications that Musk is the de facto leader of DOGE. Trump has said, "I signed an order creating the Department of Government Efficiency and put a man named Elon Musk in charge." Musk has taken a number of actions demonstrating his authority over DOGE, such as his notorious tweet telling federal employees that they would have to begin sending a weekly email describing what they had done that week and that "Failure to respond will be taken as a resignation." Musk famously pranced around on stage waving a chainsaw to suggest that he was going to cut government funding. Yet, the official position of the government is that Musk is neither in charge of nor an employee of DOGE. He is simply an advisor to Trump and has no decision-making authority. Yesterday, the government went even further with Solicitor General John Sauer, in a formal filing to the U.S. Supreme Court, referring to Musk as "a White House advisor, who is not part of USDS". Musk and the Trump administration are playing a pretty obvious game. They want Musk to have the authority to control DOGE and make decisions regarding the government. However, they don't want to be forced to adhere to legal requirements regarding government records and transparency. Therefore, they are trying to have it both ways. There may be a small bit of irony in the fact that Musk has repeatedly promised that DOGE would operate with "maximum transparency" while fighting all the way to the Supreme Court to prevent such transparency, but rather than being ironic, that is simply normal procedure for Musk.

Now comes word that Musk is going to step back from his involvement in government and politics. Just as with Tesla's self-driving cars and SpaceX's missions to Mars, there seems to be an unlimited supply of reporters willing to take Musk's claims at face value. I never cease to be surprised by how our allegedly hard-nosed, cynical press corps reacts to Musk like teen girls at a Beatles concert. First, the facts. Musk is officially a Special Government Employee or SGE. SGEs can legally only work 130 days in a 365-day period, and Musk's 130 days are just about up. Therefore, Musk's formal position will have to end whether he likes it or not. Second, there has been considerable blowback on Musk due to his involvement with DOGE. The Tesla Takedown movement and anti-Tesla sentiments among car buyers have clearly negatively impacted Tesla sales, with the carmaker suffering its first drops in sales in years. At a time when electric car sales have been growing overall, Tesla sales have been decreasing. As such, Musk has multiple reasons for distancing himself from government. As a result, media outlet after media outlet has run credulous reports about Musk's returning to his businesses. Don't believe it.

Even as reports of Musk's demise were being published, Musk was flexing his influence with the government. Musk joined Trump on Trump's trip to the Gulf. Musk and Trump were photographed together having a chat with Saudi Arabian Crown Prince and de facto ruler Mohammed bin Salman. Shortly after that, Musk joined Trump in the White House for a meeting with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa. Musk's role in this meeting is particularly noteworthy. Musk has been a proponent of the "White Genocide" theory that White farmers in South Africa are being systematically murdered. There is no evidence to actually support this allegation, but Musk seems to have convinced Trump of its veracity. Trump ambushed Ramaphosa with so-called evidence of the murders. One item was a video of crosses along a road that Trump said represented the graves of white farmers. In fact, the crosses do not mark grave sites but were actually a temporary memorial marking the murders of a white farming couple. However, a week ago, Musk retweeted the video on X, his social media platform, with the same false claim. At about that same time, Musk's artificial intelligence bot, Grok, went crazy and began responding to almost any prompt with a rant about White genocide in South Africa. The cross video was one of the things that Grok referenced. It is not hard to believe that Musk was the source of the video and misinformation that Trump brought up in the meeting. Moreover, Musk actually attended the meeting with Ramaphosa. During the meeting, Trump waved at Musk and said, "This is what Elon wanted." Later in the day, Musk was seen visiting Capitol Hill, where he apparently met with Senators to discuss the tax bill from which Musk stands to benefit. None of this is indicative of stepping back from politics.

Musk has a history of saying things that turned out not to be true, or less charitably, lying. Musk deploys lies strategically to enhance his financial situation or his personal reputation. This is a guy who has reportedly paid others to play a video game for him so that he can brag about having the game's highest score. Therefore, there is no reason to believe Musk when he says that he is stepping back from politics. Certainly, his formal role will end, but he has been lying about that anyway. How big of a step is it for the Trump administration to go from saying that Musk is "not part of USDS" to "Musk is not part of the government"? Musk will continue to hold immense influence within the U.S. government and will likely be directing actions much as he does now. Musk will probably switch much of his campaign spending to dark money so that it cannot be as easily linked to him. If he wants to save Tesla, Musk will certainly have to lower his partisan political profile. So, on the surface, I am sure we will see less of Musk when it comes to politics. But, below the surface, expect Musk to be just as involved as he has been. There is one possible bug in Musk's ointment, and that is his ego. It is impossible to exaggerate the size of Musk's ego, and that will directly conflict with his need to maintain a low profile. A low profile and Musk's ego simply can't cohabitate. So, expect a pattern of Musk making statements about stepping back from politics while continuing to make notable appearances at political events. Musk has had a taste of the power of government, and he will not give it up freely.