Is Trump Shifting U.S. Middle East Policy Away from Israel?

I have written two earlier posts about cult leader, convicted felon, and failed President Donald Trump's erratic Middle East policies. Following Trump's Middle East pronouncements is like watching a drunk driver careen down the road, swinging wildly from one lane to the other. One day Trump suggests that he wants to empty Gaza of its Palestinian residents and turn it into a Trump resort, the next day he says that "Nobody’s expelling any Palestinians." While Secretary of Deportations Marco Rubio does the bidding of Canary Mission and attempts to deport college and university students that the shadowy organization has identified as critics of Israel, de facto Secretary of State Steve Witkoff ignores Israel and cuts deals directly with Israel's enemies. As a result, Trump is one of the most pro-Israel U.S. presidents in terms of crushing freedom of speech within the U.S. to prevent criticism of Israel, while simultaneously acting with the most independence from Israel of any U.S. president since Dwight D. Eisenhower. This week, things are likely to get even more unpredictable.

Today, Trump is embarking on a trip to the Middle East. While there, he will visit Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar. Noticeably missing from his itinerary is a stop in Israel. Trump and his family have strong financial ties to Saudi Arabia, particularly where golf is concerned. The LIV golf tour is financed by Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fund and is played at several of Trump's resorts. Trump has partnered with a Saudi real estate firm to build a new golf course in Oman. The partnership will also build resorts in Saudi Arabia and Dubai. Even more notable, Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner received $2 billion in funding from Saudi's sovereign wealth fund. The United Arab Emirates, through the Abu Dhabi-backed firm MGX, recently agreed to put $2 billion into Trump's stablecoin cryptocurrency project. As for Qatar, over the weekend it was reported that the country has offered Trump a luxurious Boeing 747 aircraft worth $400 million. Trump appears to have confirmed this news on his Truth Social social media network. This would likely be the largest presidential gift in history. Trump also has a deal with Qatar for a resort in that country.

It is clear what Trump wants from the Gulf states: money. He wants money for his own pocket and money for investment in the United States that, he hopes, will strengthen him politically. Trump also wants investments that will benefit his political allies. But what do the Gulf states want from Trump? That is less clear. Some things are known. Saudi Arabia wants U.S. support for a civilian nuclear energy project. The Gulf countries also appear to be favoring a U.S. deal with Iran that will lessen tensions in the region. They probably would also like to see some movement toward ending the Israeli genocide in Gaza. All three of these items have one thing in common: they go against Israel's interests. That, in fact, may point to the most important desire of the Gulf countries.

For decades, there has been almost no separation between U.S. and Israeli policies. The two countries have been in lockstep, and Israel has essentially maintained veto power over any U.S. actions in the region. One notable exception to this rule was former President Ronald Reagan's sale of AWACs aircraft to Saudi Arabia. While Reagan overcame Israeli opposition, he didn't attempt to sell additional arms to Saudi Arabia during his term, and it would be decades before another major U.S. arms sale to the Kingdom. But Trump seems to be putting space between Israel and the United States, and this may well be something that the Gulf is encouraging.

The first sign that Israel's special role might be diminishing came just after Trump was inaugurated. Witkoff appears to have decided that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was an impediment to negotiations and started working independently of him. Trump's hostage envoy, Adam Boehler, went so far as to publicly state that the U.S. is "not an agent of Israel". There were then reports that Boehler had managed to negotiate the freedom of Edan Alexander, an Israeli soldier who holds U.S. citizenship and has been held by Hamas since Hamas' October 7 attack. This was a result of controversial direct talks held between Boehler and Hamas. These talks greatly angered Israel and its U.S. supporters. Rubio reacted by proclaiming that the direct talks had been a "one-off situation". The Israeli pushback appeared to have halted progress towards Alexander's release at that time.

The next indication that Trump was not maintaining the traditional close U.S. relationship with Israel came with regard to U.S. attacks on the Houthis in Yemen. At first, this started out exactly the opposite. Israel renewed its onslaught on Gaza, ending a U.S.-negotiated ceasefire. This provoked the Houthis to begin launching missile and drone attacks on Israel. The U.S., seemingly without a clear understanding of exactly why, began attacks on the Houthis. This appeared to be simply another knee-jerk reaction to protect Israel with little regard for U.S. interests. After more than a month of attacks, Trump suddenly praised the bravery of the Houthis and announced a ceasefire. He did this with absolutely no coordination with Israel and, almost immediately, the Houthis resumed attacks against Israel.

Corresponding with this, renewed talks between Trump's negotiators and Hamas were revealed. This came as Trump announced that Edan Alexander would be released by Hamas. That could happen as soon as today. This created a problem for Netanyahu as it highlighted his failure to return Israeli hostages. Moreover, not only did the U.S. not coordinate these negotiations with Israel, U.S. officials didn't even inform Israel about the discussions until an agreement had been reached. Appearing to realize Israel's decreased stature with regard to U.S. foreign policy, Netanyahu stated that "I think we'll have to detox from US security assistance." This is an incredible admission that Israel can no longer count on the United States for unconditional support. When announcing Alexander's release, Trump thanked Egypt and Oman, but said nothing about Israel. He also wrote, "Hopefully this is the first of those final steps necessary to end this brutal conflict," which hints that the U.S. may not be onboard with Netanyahu's recently announced plans to escalate the Gaza conflict. Further damaging Netanyahu was a statement by Witcoff saying that "We want to bring the captives home, but Israel is not willing to end the war ... Israel is prolonging it even though we don’t see any way to advance further, and an agreement must be reached." This is an unheard-of criticism of Israel from a U.S. official.

At this very moment, the U.S. is involved in talks with Iran hosted by Oman. These are a combination of direct and indirect talks, and almost daily U.S. officials issue statements saying that progress has been made. Netanyahu does not want a U.S.-Iran agreement. To the contrary, he has been attempting to convince Trump to attack Iran. There are multiple reasons that Michael Waltz should have been removed as National Security Adviser, but the Washington Post reports that "Waltz appeared to have engaged in intense coordination with Netanyahu about military options against Iran ahead of an Oval Office meeting between the Israeli leader and Trump" and "It got back to Trump, and the president wasn’t happy with it". There is a strong likelihood that a U.S.-Iran deal will be concluded while Israel is left on the sidelines with even its administration allies marginalized.

Trump and Saudi Arabia may announce progress towards Saudi Arabia's nuclear program during Trump's visit. In the past, U.S. support for this program was conditioned on Saudi Arabia agreeing to a peace accord with Israel. Trump appears to have dropped that requirement. Similarly, while a Saudi Arabia-Israel accord was once a top Trump priority, Saudi demands regarding Palestinian statehood appear to have put that on the back burner and Trump is not pushing the matter. On both of these issues, Saudi Arabia's position has been given preference over Israel's.

At the same time, there has been a notable change in tone in Western media attitudes towards Israel and Gaza. Generally, the Western press takes a strong pro-Israel line (contrary to the complaints from Israel's supporters). However, in recent days, The Guardian, The Independent, the Financial Times, and the Economist have suddenly taken strong positions in favor of ending the war in Gaza. Some of these have broken with past practice and described Israel's actions as "genocide". Even the New York Times, generally willing to publish any apology for Israel's actions, has done an extraordinary job of covering Israel's killing of Palestinian paramedics and rescue workers, even providing a remarkable "visual investigation". If Trump wants separation between the U.S. and Israel, public opinion is certainly being conditioned to support such an action.

Clearly, Trump has started acting independently from Israel in a way that has not been seen from U.S. presidents since Eisenhower. Moreover, the Gulf Arabs have clearly learned that the path to Trump's heart runs through his wallet. The Gulf can offer Trump the financial rewards and political "wins" that he covets. Netanyahu can offer Trump nothing but headaches. As such, we may be at a momentous moment for U.S. politics in the Middle East. As described above, it is clear what the Gulf states are doing for Trump, but it is not clear what they want Trump to do for them. Perhaps their goal is for the U.S. to move away from its total support for Israel and begin providing a greater role for them? Could the Arab states of the Gulf, rather than Israel, become the primary U.S. partner in the region? That is not necessarily out of the question. However, given Trump's erratic behavior, things could easily shift back in Israel's direction without warning.

Update: While I was writing this post, Edan Alexander was released into Red Cross custody and the Red Cross is in the process of transporting him to the IDF.