Trump's Wildly Inconsistent Policies Towards Israel and Gaza

Generally, I believe that the administration of cult leader, convicted felon, and failed President Donald Trump is terrible in every way. My normal disposition towards the Trump administration is along the lines of the famous Dril tweet about ISIS, "you do not, under any circumstances, ‘gotta hand it to them’". There is one area where I may have to make an exception to that rule: anti-trust policies. Someday, I may write about those policies, but that day is not today. Today, I want to address Trump administration policies in the Middle East. I am not ready to concede that I have to hand it to Trump in this regard, but that is not as unrealistic of a proposition as it might seem.

From the viewpoint of someone like me who is strongly supportive of the Palestinians' aspirations for an independent homeland and who is concerned about Islamophobia and anti-Arab bigotry in the U.S., Trump is obviously not the ideal president. He is, after all, the sponsor of the Muslim ban implemented during his first administration. He has been unequivocally pro-Israel, having moved the U.S. Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem and recognized Israeli control of the Golan Heights during his first term. Just yesterday, my blog post was about the blatant attack on the First Amendment involving the Trump administration's detainment of a Palestinian green card holder accused of nothing more than exercising speech that Trump doesn't like. Yet, unlike the campaign of former Vice President Kamala Harris, Trump reached out to Arabs and Muslims during the campaign and promised to do what former President Joe Biden had been unable to accomplish: secure a ceasefire in the Gaza war. This Trump was able to do, even before being inaugurated as president.

Trump seems to operate on two tracks simultaneously. One is evident through his public pronouncements, often posted on his Truth Social social media platform. On this track, Trump is often blustery and threatening. Warning Hamas that "all hell" will break loose if the group does not comply with his demands. The other is behind the scenes, normally led by Trump's Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff. Witkoff is a billionaire real estate developer with no prior diplomatic experience. Nevertheless, Witkoff has been extremely effective, helping to secure an Israeli withdrawal from most of the land it occupied in southern Lebanon (Israel is obligated to complete its total withdrawal) and establishing the current ceasefire in Gaza. Trump and Witkoff seem to have a "good cop, bad cop" routine. While Trump is posting bellicose "truths" on Truth Social, Witkoff is quietly negotiating the type of arrangement that many were begging Biden to conclude. It is not clear if this split personality approach is intentional or just the result of Trump's impulsiveness. The effect is that Trump makes threats, Witkoff negotiates results, and then Trump's threats appear to have worked. In reality, it is Witkoff's dealmaking that is responsible.

The key to Witkoff's success appears to be his determination not to be intimidated by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Almost everyone, including Biden, knew that Netanyahu constantly backstabbed the former president. Trump and Witkoff don't seem to be concerned about this happening to them. Moreover, whereas Biden always seemed to give Netanyahu veto power over any of his actions, Witkoff's attitude appears to be one of "this train is leaving the station, you can be on it if you want." Netanyahu is viewed as simply another obstacle to achieving the Administration's goals and, hence, worked around rather than with. The most recent example of this was the commencement of direct negotiations between Hamas and the U.S.

What appears to have happened is that Trump administration officials determined that progress with Netanyahu was impossible, so they would, instead, try to make progress without him. Therefore, Trump's hostage envoy, Adam Boehler, met with Hamas officials in Qatar to hold direct talks. Boehler's goal is said to be securing the freedom of an American-Israeli dual citizen and the return of the remains of several individuals who held U.S. nationality. These talks began without consultation with Israel and without Netanyahu's knowledge. When word reached Netanyahu about what was happening, he presumably hoped to sabotage the talks. News of the direct discussions was leaked to the press in Israel.

Needless to say, had the Biden administration been caught holding direct talks with Hamas, the criticism would have been deafening and, not least, coming from Trump. But since it is the Trump administration that is actually conducting the negotiations with Hamas, criticism is muted. About the only voices in opposition are coming from Israeli hardliners, particularly Ron Dermer, a former Israeli ambassador to the U.S. and a close confidant of Netanyahu. Dermer has been unrelenting in his criticism of Boehler and his talks with Hamas. But, far from being cowed, Boehler instead made a round of Israeli television channels defending his contacts. In one case Boehler stated, "We're the United States. We're not an agent of Israel" and defended the U.S.’s right to pursue its own interests independent of Israel's. Boehler further antagonized the Israelis by stating, "Look, they [Hamas] don’t have horns growing out of their head. They’re actually guys like us. They’re pretty nice guys." He later backtracked somewhat from this saying, "Hamas is a terrorist organization that has murdered thousands of innocent people. They are BY DEFINITION BAD people." Nevertheless, any previous American official who had made such conciliatory comments toward Hamas would have been summarily fired. The fact that Boehler is continuing in his role shows how little Trump cares about the anger of Israeli hardliners and the country's American supporters.

I don't want to paint too rosy of a picture. Trump is absolutely wildly inconsistent when it comes to Gaza. Not long ago, he was advocating the expulsion of the Palestinians and the establishment of U.S. ownership of Gaza. Maybe even building a Trump hotel, resort, and casino on the land. This made him a star among Israeli hardliners. More recently, Trump administration officials have been making supportive remarks about an Arab-led counterproposal for Gaza's future.

Another interesting development has been Trump's relationship with the Israeli families of those still held in captivity by Hamas. Trump has met with some of these families in the Oval Office, and many of the families see Trump as their only hope of getting their family members back alive. This is another case in which Trump has completely ignored Netanyahu. Netanyahu generally is either heedless of those families or actively portrays them as political enemies. Trump, on the other hand, has made common cause with them. As a result, Israelis who have given up on their own government now routinely petition Trump for support.

On the other hand, Trump has also resumed U.S. deliveries of 2,000 lb. bombs to Israel and, if hostilities resume between Hamas and Israel, it is clear that the Israelis intend to pound Gaza in ways that Biden restrained them from doing. Biden's limitations were minimal and mostly ineffective, and Israel may be able to do little more than turn big chunks of rubble into little chunks, but certainly Palestinians will die in large numbers and Trump will be little bothered.

It is pretty clear that Witkoff and Boehler are fully capable of negotiating a continued ceasefire in Gaza and the release of those being held by Hamas. What is not clear is how willing Trump is to continue supporting them in that goal. What, on the other hand, is absolutely clear is how strongly Netanyahu opposes those efforts. Unable to have much impact on Trump with mere words, Netanyahu first embargoed all supplies going into Gaza, a move that threatens to starve the entire population. He then ordered that electricity be cut off to Gaza, which forced the desalination plants to stop working, leaving Gaza without drinking water. Perhaps Netanyahu is hoping that Hamas will respond militarily to the Israeli provocations, or maybe he simply wants to starve Gaza's population. Either way, I don't think these moves should be seen as anything other than Netanyahu's response to Trump. A key test of the Trump administration will be how it responds. Will Trump continue to operate independently of Netanyahu and, somehow, negotiate a resumption of the supply of food and water, or will Trump see the forced starvation of Palestinians as a way to pave the way for a Trump Resort and Casino in Gaza?