18

The two most active threads yesterday were ones that I've already discussed and, therefore, I will start with yesterday's third most active thread. That thread was titled, "Event everyone can celebrate: terrorist leader Sinwar dead", and posted in the "Political Discussion" forum. The original poster started this thread soon after reports emerged that Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas, had been killed in Gaza by Israeli forces. The original poster believes that this is an event that will please both Israelis and Palestinians. In addition, the original poster expresses hope that Sinwar's death will lead to an end to the fighting in Gaza, the release of the hostages being held by Hamas, and peace in the Middle East. I don't want to be too critical of the original poster because this view was commonly expressed yesterday, including by those much more prominent than the anonymous original poster. But this perspective mostly highlights the disconnect between U.S. perceptions of the war and the reality of what is actually occurring. Far from bringing an end to the war, Israel is continuing to widen the conflict in the region. Almost immediately, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu assured his nation that the fighting would continue. What will happen with the hostages is unclear. It is possible that some will be killed in retaliation. More likely there will be no real impact. It is probable that even before Sinwar's death, Hamas had lost most of its ability to exert top down control of its members. The fate of the hostages could well be left to the individual groups that are holding them. As for peace in the region, it will be a long time before Gaza is anything more than a catalyst for further violence in the region. Moreover, as I wrote recently on this blog, Netanyahu's personal motivations are for continual war. Based on what I observed on social media, the reaction of Palestinians and Lebanese, even among some who were no fans of Sinwar, is not one of celebration. Israel released video from a drone that entered the building in which Sinwar had taken refuge after a firefight with Israeli troops. Sinwar's right arm appeared to have been amputated near his wrist and he seems to have applied a tourniquet himself. Using his left arm, he threw a stick at the drone. Arabs point out that rather than hiding in a tunnel, Sinwar was above ground leading the battle against Israeli forces and resisted to the last moment of his life. It appears that Israel may have just created a martyr whose life will inspire others. We have seen how little impact Israel's assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has had as Israel continues to face stiff resistance in southern Lebanon. Hamas and Hezbollah are resistance organizations whose members face the choice of fighting to the death or surrendering their homelands. Quite a few will prefer the former. The biggest impact of Sinwar's killing may be on U.S. - Israeli relations. For President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, this provides an off-ramp for Israel. Rather than the continued slaughter and starvation of Gazans which is costing Harris votes and possibly even the election, she would much rather see an end to the violence which might decrease the war's importance as an election issue. But Netanyahu appears determined to bomb and starve Gazans into submission. Biden and Harris will be forced to choose between their own interests and Netanyahu's.