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[quote=Anonymous][quote] Instead of trying to predict a precise price target, it is more useful to think in terms of ranges tied to real-world developments.

Contained disruption ($90–$110 WTI). If the current disruption proves temporary and shipping through the Strait resumes relatively quickly, the current price spike could fade as the previously expected 2026 supply surplus reasserts itself.

Structural shock ($110–$130 WTI). If disruptions persist for several weeks—through tanker strikes, infrastructure damage, or prolonged insurance withdrawals—the market will begin pricing in a sustained supply risk.

Severe disruption ($140+ WTI). This scenario would likely require a major escalation, such as significant damage to key processing facilities in Saudi Arabia or the UAE. At that point the market would be driven less by trading sentiment and more by a global scramble for physical barrels. At that point, we really don’t know how high oil prices might rise, but at some point, they will trigger an economic response.[/quote]
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2026/03/07/how-high-could-oil-prices-go-a-reality-based-look-at-the-ceiling/

Roughly every $1.00 increase in oil price is 2.3-3 cents rise in gasoline price.[/quote]

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