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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]If you get out of the DC bubble, you’ll quickly see that Trump is gonna wipe the floor with Harris. [/quote]

Yep, Harris is toast. But no one here seems to think so. [/quote]

Because you are making an assertion without even an attempt at backup. No cites. No up to the minute polling. No article regarding early voting. No article regarding changes in voter registration, fundraising, or endorsements. Nothing.

You guys are all behaving like the criminals who shat in the Capitol and asking people to respect their sincerely held “political beliefs.’ Yet you do not substantiate why you think something. It’s just repugnant but so are all of you. Trump is weak and old, and when he passes, your sick cult ends. [/quote]

I am a different poster, but this post and others in this thread are interesting because you seem to not be following the election at all (in addition to being unhinged, as evidenced by your rhetoric).  First, all the betting markets, not just the ones the liberals believe are being manipulated, have Trump as a pretty heavy favorite right now.  If you and others believe otherwise, there is a lot of money to be made.  Second, places like 538 and RCP (and others) have Trump as the favorite based on polling and analysis.  In fact, I am not sure of any outlet right now that has Harris as the favorite.  Third, early results have been very strong for Republicans.  Look what is happening in Arizona, Nevada, Florida, etc.  Hard to read tea leaves in the blue wall states because of how early voting is different, but in terms of nationwide tea leaves, pretty much everything is good for Trump right now, and I follow all of this closely.  Heck, even states like New Hampshire are shockingly close.  And the Senate races are looking way better for Republicans right now -- could even get 52 or more.  So in total, the landscape appears to favor Republicans quite a bit.  Should be interesting next week.[/quote]

Betting markets are not polls. That's people guessing. No one placing bets actually knows. That's like saying "well the GOP has won in 8 out of 12 elections where temperatures in Alaska reach at least 60 degrees the Thursday before the election." It's meaningless.

538 and every other major polling aggregator have the race within the margin of error. Saying Trump is "up" in these polling averages when he's leading by 1 points and the margin of error is 3.5 means nothing. The race is tied.

Looking at pulling averages for national polls is similarly fairly meaningless data, especially in a tight race. If either candidate were up by 5 or more then that might be compelling. If it's within the margin the focus should be in swing states and the electoral college.

Regarding early vote-- we have no actual vote totals. Only numbers based on party affiliation. I agree the early vote has had some positive signs for the GOP, especially in NV. But will NV matter un the electoral college? It's only 6 electoral votes. The early vote has not been as positive in other states.

Right now if Harris won the swing states she currently leads in polling averages from 538, she would win. If she wins MI, PA, WI she wins even if she loses NV, GA, AZ, and NC. And she currently leads in polling averages of MI, PA, and WI. In MI her lead appears to be growing. I think PA remains the tightest of those 3.

I don't feel confident Harris is going to win but I also don't feel confident Trump will win. I think based on the polling we currently see AND the early vote numbers AND the context that it's going to be a handful of tight states that decide it, it's a toss up.[/quote]

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