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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]

So just a question- [b]why is 1 or 2 cases per 100k acceptable to you? [/b] Not arguing with your post really, and I guess that number is not all that different than what Gayles came up with, but he pointed to cdc guidance that does not really exist.  Other states like NY have set different metrics.  It frustrates me that there’s isn’t a credible, national effort.  [/quote]

I got the number by reading news reports of countries in Europe and Asia that successfully reopened schools in the spring.  They would close a school if even one case was found in the school.  I looked at the European CDC data on spread in those countries that seemed to be able to keep schools open, with a few having to close when there was a case, and their community spread was listed at 1 new case per 100,000 per day or less  (I think they measured 10 new cases per 1 million but it's the same thing.)

So that's just the number I was thinking of, but I found that experts think the same thing.  It's the level considered to be the &quot;green&quot; zone by experts at the Harvard Global Health Institute:

https://globalepidemics.org/key-metrics-for-covid-suppression/

[img]https://scontent-iad3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/s960x960/117607165_10223460673010193_7571754004137883971_o.jpg?_nc_cat=108&_nc_sid=8024bb&_nc_ohc=0SkXgfVYjgcAX9yr9By&_nc_ht=scontent-iad3-1.xx&_nc_tp=7&oh=faf609fa3679f57d29d3591b95206a47&oe=5F566283[/img]

It's the level the CDC has designated as &quot;minimal community spread&quot;.

It's the level Dr Osterholm (director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota)  has chosen as the level of spread at which we could safely reopen things:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/07/opinion/coronavirus-lockdown-unemployment-death.html
[quote]
We believe the choice is clear. We can continue to allow the coronavirus to spread rapidly throughout the country or we can commit to a more restrictive lockdown, state by state, for up to six weeks to crush the spread of the virus to less than one new case per 100,000 people per day.

That’s the point at which we will be able to limit the increase in new cases through aggressive public health measures, just as other countries have done. But we’re a long way from there right now.[/quote]

[/quote]

It's too bad our country won't use this guidance  at the national level.  You have schools opening in the south that are way above the tipping point.  And the only way to get to &lt;1 and stay there is to keep everything else shutdown- like back to early spring.  As soon as you start opening things back up at all and allowing gatherings it's going to go up.  So if this is what local officials are going to use, they need to be honest with people that they chose the &quot;everything else&quot; over schools.  I just don't see a path to having both.

A lot of countries in Europe are not really testing, so I'd be skeptical of their numbers.  My friend who currently lives in Estonia said that no one is wearing masks or distancing anymore. They never had much of an outbreak to begin with but chances are if it does creep back in there, there will be widespread community transmission before they even know it.[/quote]

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