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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]There could be two things simultaneously happening.  First, the number of kids applying to college overall is going down.  Second, the number of kids with exceptional credentials could be going up (albeit only slightly).  There could be a number of reasons for the second point, [b]if true.[/b][/quote]
That's the question, isn't it. We know that the quality of college applicants on average has declined.  For instance, [url=https://www.insidehighered.com/admissions/article/2017/07/17/study-finds-notable-increase-grades-high-schools-nationally]average SAT scores are down while grade inflation is rampant.[/url] [/quote]

I would agree.  There is notable grade inflation, particularly at more affluent high schools.  It likely explains most of the increase in GPA at the more selective Virginia college. Most affluent and private high schools also don't provide class rank any more.  Only 25% or so of students at many elite colleges have a class rank provided any more if you look at the CDS.  And the SAT has been recentered up several times.  So the kids at selective colleges have better stats, but it doesn't really mean they are higher performing than those of the past.

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The only thing that is really standardized are standardized tests, but they have been re-centered as noted because averages were going down.  And kids who get good coaching on standardized tests (typically the more affluent) get higher scores.  [/quote]

The SATs contain vastly different content than they used to--more critical reading less decontextualized vocabulary lists etc. so it's oranges and apples comparing scores to past decades.  Since they are in continual redesign and offer multiple iterations each year it's not accurate to think of recentering as reflecting scores going down over time.  Also statistics has improved vastly in recent decades allowing more sophisticated analysis of items etc.  So a narrative which thinks this reflects a decline in performance doesn't make sense.[/quote]

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