Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:VCU, GMU, Mary Washington

Where are those?

Anonymous wrote:VCU, GMU, Mary Washington

Anonymous wrote:That is Virginia. I do not believe you can extrapolate data from one state to 50 states.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There has been a big drop off in Community College enrollment. I think the top schools still have a good number of quality applicants and stats may even come up. The ones that are struggling the most are the less selective and the smaller private schools.

Citation please. I have not seen that in the Chronicle of HIgher Ed or anywhere else.

Not PP, but SCHEV: http://research.schev.edu/enrollment/E2_Report.asp
Run "Total Public 2 Year Institutions"

Institution,Fall Term,Description,In-State Undergraduates,Out-Of-State Undergraduate,Undergraduates Total Public Two-Year Institutions,1992,All Students,"127,103","7,001","134,104" Total Public Two-Year Institutions,1993,All Students,"124,197","7,046","131,243" Total Public Two-Year Institutions,1994,All Students,"123,403","7,330","130,733" Total Public Two-Year Institutions,1995,All Students,"120,887","7,458","128,345" Total Public Two-Year Institutions,1996,All Students,"117,237","7,366","124,603" Total Public Two-Year Institutions,1997,All Students,"122,615","7,797","130,412" Total Public Two-Year Institutions,1998,All Students,"124,523","8,008","132,531" Total Public Two-Year Institutions,1999,All Students,"127,960","8,301","136,261" Total Public Two-Year Institutions,2000,All Students,"129,842","8,197","138,039" Total Public Two-Year Institutions,2001,All Students,"137,359","8,606","145,965" Total Public Two-Year Institutions,2002,All Students,"142,615","8,706","151,321" Total Public Two-Year Institutions,2003,All Students,"145,741","7,844","153,585" Total Public Two-Year Institutions,2004,All Students,"147,861","5,865","153,726" Total Public Two-Year Institutions,2005,All Students,"150,431","4,538","154,969" Total Public Two-Year Institutions,2006,All Students,"151,779","8,791","160,570" Total Public Two-Year Institutions,2007,All Students,"158,498","10,068","168,566" Total Public Two-Year Institutions,2008,All Students,"169,153","7,968","177,121" Total Public Two-Year Institutions,2009,All Students,"182,034","8,818","190,852" Total Public Two-Year Institutions,2010,All Students,"187,444","9,560","197,004" Total Public Two-Year Institutions,2011,All Students,"189,861","8,989","198,850" Total Public Two-Year Institutions,2012,All Students,"185,551","8,884","194,435" Total Public Two-Year Institutions,2013,All Students,"181,660","8,868","190,528" Total Public Two-Year Institutions,2014,All Students,"177,018","7,953","184,971" Total Public Two-Year Institutions,2015,All Students,"171,932","7,132","179,064" Total Public Two-Year Institutions,2016,All Students,"166,199","6,873","173,072" Total Public Two-Year Institutions,2017,All Students,"162,172","6,862","169,034" Total Public Two-Year Institutions,2018,All Students,"157,238","6,707","163,945"

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There could be two things simultaneously happening. First, the number of kids applying to college overall is going down. Second, the number of kids with exceptional credentials could be going up (albeit only slightly). There could be a number of reasons for the second point, if true.

That's the question, isn't it. We know that the quality of college applicants on average has declined. For instance, average SAT scores are down while grade inflation is rampant.

I would agree. There is notable grade inflation, particularly at more affluent high schools. It likely explains most of the increase in GPA at the more selective Virginia college. Most affluent and private high schools also don't provide class rank any more. Only 25% or so of students at many elite colleges have a class rank provided any more if you look at the CDS. And the SAT has been recentered up several times. So the kids at selective colleges have better stats, but it doesn't really mean they are higher performing than those of the past.

The only thing that is really standardized are standardized tests, but they have been re-centered as noted because averages were going down. And kids who get good coaching on standardized tests (typically the more affluent) get higher scores.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There has been a big drop off in Community College enrollment. I think the top schools still have a good number of quality applicants and stats may even come up. The ones that are struggling the most are the less selective and the smaller private schools.

Citation please. I have not seen that in the Chronicle of HIgher Ed or anywhere else.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There could be two things simultaneously happening. First, the number of kids applying to college overall is going down. Second, the number of kids with exceptional credentials could be going up (albeit only slightly). There could be a number of reasons for the second point, if true.

That's the question, isn't it. We know that the quality of college applicants on average has declined. For instance, average SAT scores are down while grade inflation is rampant.

I would agree. There is notable grade inflation, particularly at more affluent high schools. It likely explains most of the increase in GPA at the more selective Virginia college. Most affluent and private high schools also don't provide class rank any more. Only 25% or so of students at many elite colleges have a class rank provided any more if you look at the CDS. And the SAT has been recentered up several times. So the kids at selective colleges have better stats, but it doesn't really mean they are higher performing than those of the past.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There could be two things simultaneously happening. First, the number of kids applying to college overall is going down. Second, the number of kids with exceptional credentials could be going up (albeit only slightly). There could be a number of reasons for the second point, if true.

That's the question, isn't it. We know that the quality of college applicants on average has declined. For instance, average SAT scores are down while grade inflation is rampant.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote: Try getting in to one of these places these days.

Why wouldn’t a very good student get in?

I find it interesting that this year only UVA and VT managed to meet their enrollment targets (VT in catastrophic fashion, of course). Nationwide, the number of students has been dropping significantly over the last decade, so contrary to what you may have heard, a student of the class of 2023 probably has a better chance of getting into a top school (at any level, public or not) than a student of the class of 2013.

I don't think that is true. What is your source?

According to the Roanoke Times A Hokie horde will stretch Blacksburg in the fall:

Virginia — like the nation — is facing a demographics challenge and as of this spring, Tech and the University of Virginia were the only schools in the state that initially met and exceeded their enrollment goals for fall 2019, according to Tech enrollment officials.

That article is VT trying to turn their enrollment management failure into a positive. Other schools purposefully enroll fewer and then take from the waitlist on May 2, 3 etc. so they don't have the VT nightmare. The year before VT had the biggest "underenrollment" that they managed by taking off the waitlist like most responsible schools do. Out of all the schools, VT vacillates the most in missing their enrollment targets in both directions.

The oversubscription is a huge positive. What school doesn't want to be oversubscribed in that way? It made national news. Yes, some students are now being paid to go to community college or taking the $1000 not to show up. win-win for VT.

No, I don't think so. There may be some working hard to bill it such, but anyone with a clue about these things can look year to year and see that they overshoot then undershoot etc. Last year they struggled to fill which is why they hired a new enrollment management team and accepted a greater percentage than made any sense. Show me an upward trend in applications and an upward trend in the qualifications in application and a stronger yield and I'll believe they are doing well.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote: Try getting in to one of these places these days.

Why wouldn’t a very good student get in?

I find it interesting that this year only UVA and VT managed to meet their enrollment targets (VT in catastrophic fashion, of course). Nationwide, the number of students has been dropping significantly over the last decade, so contrary to what you may have heard, a student of the class of 2023 probably has a better chance of getting into a top school (at any level, public or not) than a student of the class of 2013.

I don't think that is true. What is your source?

According to the Roanoke Times A Hokie horde will stretch Blacksburg in the fall:

Virginia — like the nation — is facing a demographics challenge and as of this spring, Tech and the University of Virginia were the only schools in the state that initially met and exceeded their enrollment goals for fall 2019, according to Tech enrollment officials.

That article is VT trying to turn their enrollment management failure into a positive. Other schools purposefully enroll fewer and then take from the waitlist on May 2, 3 etc. so they don't have the VT nightmare. The year before VT had the biggest "underenrollment" that they managed by taking off the waitlist like most responsible schools do. Out of all the schools, VT vacillates the most in missing their enrollment targets in both directions.

The oversubscription is a huge positive. What school doesn't want to be oversubscribed in that way? It made national news. Yes, some students are now being paid to go to community college or taking the $1000 not to show up. win-win for VT.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
The oversubscription is a huge positive. What school doesn't want to be oversubscribed in that way? It made national news. Yes, some students are now being paid to go to community college or taking the $1000 not to show up. win-win for VT.

Nope.

Retention and graduation rates will take a hit unless there is an immediate influx of resources, which isn't happening in VT's case.

In addition, SCHEV will censure VT over this. Tech took students who could have enrolled at other schools. The fact that JMU went hard to their waitlist and several Virginia publics were on the open space list is a direct result of VT's poor projection of their yield.

Also, this is happening every other year at Tech. They can't seem to get it right. That points to serious issues in their enrollment management team.

What's the "open space list"? (Does it mean: "we have open spaces, anybody can enroll?") Is this just an expression or is there an actual list?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote: Try getting in to one of these places these days.

Why wouldn’t a very good student get in?

Have you looked at the admissions stats? And being in Nova doesn't help, despite what their admissions people say about there not being any quotas.

In plain English, who is getting in, then?

I don’t know, but my DC with a 3.8 gpa (lots of rigor/APs), a 34 ACT & 1500 SAT, and great extracurriculars did not get into UVA last year (and did get into arguably “better” schools than UVA out of state). DC’s friend with similar stats from same HS was also rejected by UVA . ????

That's because in addition to being an excellent school, UVA is also a cult, at least among a certain set of VA parents and students.

It's pretty clearcut looking at our FCPS HS who gets into UVA- 95% of the accepted students had a weighted GPA over 4.3. Their SATs were far more variable--they ranged from 1250-1600. GPA + rigor in the context of your HS matters far more to UVA than anything else. So take a solid handful of rigorous APs/IBs and get As in nearly everything and don't bomb the SATs and do good enough in ECs/essay.

W&M is usually a balance of SATs and GPA and other factors. A kid with a 1250 SAT and a 4.5 GPA might not get in, but a kid with a 4.1 weighted GPA and a 1500 SAT might.

W&M also considers interest whereas UVA does not. So if a student does an official visit to W&M and does an interview, it will help. My DS got into W&M with lower stats, no hook but he did an interview. I firmly believe the interview got him in.

UVA marks Interview and Level of Interest as "Not Considered". W&M marks them as "Considered", which is the lowest level if considered (after "Very Important" and "Important"). W&M also marks Volunteer/Work Experience "Very Important" while UVA marks them as "Considered". UVA marks Standardized Test Scores and Essay as "Important", while W&M marks them as "Very Important". It seems like the schools do follow the way they mark factors.

Sorry, but the stats disagree with what you are saying. With one exception, all standardized test scores of the incoming (attending) class at UVA last fall had higher scores at UVA. High School GPAs, also, across the board, were higher at UVA. But interview and level of interest as "not considered" is probably true because UVA is now receiving 41,000 applications and can't track the 80,000 or more that tour. Here are the stats for the entering students at UVA last fall (enter the school's name and hit update). Since these are students who actually enrolled, not admitted, they are lower than what an applicant should be aiming for, especially from NOVA: UVA SAT top 75th percental median: 1480; median 1420; bottom 25th percentile 33. CWM is 1490 (that was the one exception); 1400 and 1310. ACT stats for UVA were 34 for top 75th percentile, 32 and 30. W&M were 33, 32, 30. GPA: UVA top 75th percentile 4.48; 4.33 median, 4.16 bottom 25th percentile. CWM was a 4.43/4.24 and 4.05 for bottom 25th percentile. http://research.schev.edu//rdPage.aspx?rdReport=enrollment.B10_FreshmanProfile&lbUNITID=231624&lbREPYEAR=1819

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
The oversubscription is a huge positive. What school doesn't want to be oversubscribed in that way? It made national news. Yes, some students are now being paid to go to community college or taking the $1000 not to show up. win-win for VT.

Nope.

Retention and graduation rates will take a hit unless there is an immediate influx of resources, which isn't happening in VT's case.

In addition, SCHEV will censure VT over this. Tech took students who could have enrolled at other schools. The fact that JMU went hard to their waitlist and several Virginia publics were on the open space list is a direct result of VT's poor projection of their yield.

Also, this is happening every other year at Tech. They can't seem to get it right. That points to serious issues in their enrollment management team.