Reply to Ukrainian victory over Russia is inevitable

Forum Index » Political Discussion

Reply to "Ukrainian victory over Russia is inevitable "

Subject:

Emoticons





More smilies

Text Color: Font: Close Marks

[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Ukraine will launch its counteroffensive, take back Kherson and Zapor.. (sp?), then it’s a drawn out not too intense conflict. Russia becomes a completely closed off regime under sanctions (Iran style), Ukraine tries to rebuild while launching small scale attacks on Russia (like they do now, with drones). 
It goes on for a decade or so. 
[/quote]

Disagree. I think this will be a high intensity conflict for about a year. Military hardware and soldiers are ultimately finite resources. At the current rate of destruction, Russia will run out of Armored Personnel Carriers by the end of the year. It's not much better with their working tanks - key word being working. Ukraine too, of course, is suffering from attrition. They cannot compete with artillery. But unlike Russia, they have an increasing supply of advanced western weapons and just as importantly trained soldiers. Those Russian soldiers currently getting wrecked in the trenches near Bakhmut often have less than two weeks of training. And the head of Wagner recently stated that he's losing 27 percent of his soldiers every month. None of this is sustainable.

It's unclear when and where the Ukrainian counteroffensive will occur. Certainly sometime in the next couple of weeks. HIMARs are presently hitting every fuel and arms depot they can find. There are reports that Russians are both leaving and burning documents in Melitopol. It's a largely indefensible city. If Ukraine takes it, Crimea is cut off. And Crimea is already precariously supplied. Regardless, there will be hard fighting in the months ahead. But I cannot see how this lasts longer than a rear. It will be boys fighting with sticks and stones at that point. It's a genuinely awful war.[/quote]

I am not saying Russia will win. But I think it will be a long war. Russia won’t be ready to capitulate in a year. [/quote]

I think Russia has already lost because there is no way Russia comes out of this thing in a better position than if it had never invaded at all. The only question remaining is how big of a loss and who else loses along with them. [/quote]

I agree it has lost in this sense. I guess I am waiting for any kind of stability (even bad one), and for the sanctions to stabilize as well.
I doubt Ukraine will get its territories back in the near future. I wonder what it will settle for, and how much pushback will Russia see from the west in terms of sanctions. 
Plus how much guerilla war Ukraine will unleash on Russia [/quote]

Options

	Disable HTML in this message
	Disable BB Code in this message
	Disable smilies in this message

Review message

Search Recent Topics Hottest Topics