Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Ukraine will launch its counteroffensive, take back Kherson and Zapor.. (sp?), then it’s a drawn out not too intense conflict. Russia becomes a completely closed off regime under sanctions (Iran style), Ukraine tries to rebuild while launching small scale attacks on Russia (like they do now, with drones).
It goes on for a decade or so.

Disagree. I think this will be a high intensity conflict for about a year. Military hardware and soldiers are ultimately finite resources. At the current rate of destruction, Russia will run out of Armored Personnel Carriers by the end of the year. It's not much better with their working tanks - key word being working. Ukraine too, of course, is suffering from attrition. They cannot compete with artillery. But unlike Russia, they have an increasing supply of advanced western weapons and just as importantly trained soldiers. Those Russian soldiers currently getting wrecked in the trenches near Bakhmut often have less than two weeks of training. And the head of Wagner recently stated that he's losing 27 percent of his soldiers every month. None of this is sustainable.

It's unclear when and where the Ukrainian counteroffensive will occur. Certainly sometime in the next couple of weeks. HIMARs are presently hitting every fuel and arms depot they can find. There are reports that Russians are both leaving and burning documents in Melitopol. It's a largely indefensible city. If Ukraine takes it, Crimea is cut off. And Crimea is already precariously supplied. Regardless, there will be hard fighting in the months ahead. But I cannot see how this lasts longer than a rear. It will be boys fighting with sticks and stones at that point. It's a genuinely awful war.

I am not saying Russia will win. But I think it will be a long war. Russia won’t be ready to capitulate in a year.

I think Russia has already lost because there is no way Russia comes out of this thing in a better position than if it had never invaded at all. The only question remaining is how big of a loss and who else loses along with them.

I agree it has lost in this sense. I guess I am waiting for any kind of stability (even bad one), and for the sanctions to stabilize as well.
I doubt Ukraine will get its territories back in the near future. I wonder what it will settle for, and how much pushback will Russia see from the west in terms of sanctions.
Plus how much guerilla war Ukraine will unleash on Russia

Anonymous wrote:https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/05/06/ukraine-counteroffensive-expectations-hype-russia/

“The expectation from our counteroffensive campaign is overestimated in the world,” Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said in an interview this past week. “Most people are … waiting for something huge,” he added, which he fears may lead to “emotional disappointment.”

I wonder what their plan is. I know it’s selfish but I need to visit that part of the world and I hope they don’t disrupt my plans too much. Maybe they should just process to some sort of talks already.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:On a related note, Latvia is looking to deport parts of its Russian population: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russians-take-language-test-avoid-expulsion-latvia-2023-05-08/

Deporting people with a foreign passport and who don't speak the language is a great plan right?

From the Latvian's POV, it's a win-win. The Russians too uneducated, too old, or too stubborn to reject their heritage and culture will be ejected and those who adapt will find a home there.

But those repatriated back to the Motherland will receive a very chilly reception. Russia overnight created an underclass of citizen. All Russians who fled are now branded as traitors and cowards. The assets of the Russians who fled can be confiscated, so they may no longer have homes or bank accounts. Their children have no future in Putin's Russia. They know this. How do you think they will do if conscripted or can't find a job, living in constant fear knowing their families won't be taken care of if they make the 'great sacrifice' for the Motherland? Even if tomorrow Putin grants a total pardon to them all, they'll know it's all a lie because they've had access to information from the outside. They are all now dangerous in the eyes of the FSB because they know or can piece together the closely guarded secrets that the Russian government has been so desperate to hide.

Confiscating passports of Russian Kremlin officials, Kazakhstan returning FSB defectors to the Kremlin, and even the U.S. is sending Russians back home
https://www.ft.com/content/c41be6b0-f625-46f2-91e4-d03eb4b6372b.
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-fsb-kazakhstan-asylum-jailed/32332662.html
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/mar/18/biden-administration-russia-deportations

The lid of the boiling pot is closing.

These people have lived in Latvia for generations. They haven't fled.

Everything else you're describing - confiscation of assets, closure of bank accounts, forfeiture of homes, no future for the children - has already been done by the West to affluent Russians who immigrated to Europe. If anything, extrajudicial punishments made it clear to wealthy Russians that the West is not a safe haven for their assets and families that they thought it was.

As Putin has put it - you idiots, you thought your kayaks were safe in Monaco, did you? Bring them home where they belong. The West has shown you you have no future there. Your rights mean nothing to them. So come home.

Anonymous wrote:On a related note, Latvia is looking to deport parts of its Russian population: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russians-take-language-test-avoid-expulsion-latvia-2023-05-08/

Deporting people with a foreign passport and who don't speak the language is a great plan right?

From the Latvian's POV, it's a win-win. The Russians too uneducated, too old, or too stubborn to reject their heritage and culture will be ejected and those who adapt will find a home there.

But those repatriated back to the Motherland will receive a very chilly reception. Russia overnight created an underclass of citizen. All Russians who fled are now branded as traitors and cowards. The assets of the Russians who fled can be confiscated, so they may no longer have homes or bank accounts. Their children have no future in Putin's Russia. They know this. How do you think they will do if conscripted or can't find a job, living in constant fear knowing their families won't be taken care of if they make the 'great sacrifice' for the Motherland? Even if tomorrow Putin grants a total pardon to them all, they'll know it's all a lie because they've had access to information from the outside. They are all now dangerous in the eyes of the FSB because they know or can piece together the closely guarded secrets that the Russian government has been so desperate to hide.

Confiscating passports of Russian Kremlin officials, Kazakhstan returning FSB defectors to the Kremlin, and even the U.S. is sending Russians back home
https://www.ft.com/content/c41be6b0-f625-46f2-91e4-d03eb4b6372b.
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-fsb-kazakhstan-asylum-jailed/32332662.html
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/mar/18/biden-administration-russia-deportations

The lid of the boiling pot is closing.

On a related note, Latvia is looking to deport parts of its Russian population: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russians-take-language-test-avoid-expulsion-latvia-2023-05-08/

Deporting people with a foreign passport and who don't speak the language is a great plan right?

RE: De-Russification. Given how terrible Russia's reputation is right now, is that such a bad thing?

RE: Balkans. Are cities burning now? Are Serbs being murdered, their children shipped off, women raped? Strange you think their situation "didn't work out well" in comparison to what's happening to Ukraine?

RE: Counteroffensive. I saw this as well. I think it's masterful strategy. Does the Russian military commit their forces to a new offensive or keep ammo and troops in reserve to protect against a well-armed and trained force? But if they do nothing, can they keep up the attrittion? But what if the counteroffensive is just delaying to ensure that any counter-counter offensive gets hit with bad weather in the fall and winter? But if the Russian's don't attack, will the West just supply more ammo, better weapons to the Ukrainians in the meantime? How long can the Russian population be milked for males to die at the Russian Front? How long will Putin's health last? What if Prigozhin doesn't get his ammo and pulls out? Or what if Prigozhin, now a political liability for violating the Russian 2022 Laws Establishing War Censorship and Prohibiting Anti-War Statements, is arrested? After all, he did criticize the military.. so will his troops refuse to fight? This all assumes the Russian economy, with labor shortages and straining under a bloated pensions system can launder enough money to keep war production up through 'friends' like India and China (who are milking Putin like a cow).

Yeah. If I were a Russian General or Admiral, I'd be shooting whales through my keester..

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Ukraine will launch its counteroffensive, take back Kherson and Zapor.. (sp?), then it’s a drawn out not too intense conflict. Russia becomes a completely closed off regime under sanctions (Iran style), Ukraine tries to rebuild while launching small scale attacks on Russia (like they do now, with drones).
It goes on for a decade or so.

Disagree. I think this will be a high intensity conflict for about a year. Military hardware and soldiers are ultimately finite resources. At the current rate of destruction, Russia will run out of Armored Personnel Carriers by the end of the year. It's not much better with their working tanks - key word being working. Ukraine too, of course, is suffering from attrition. They cannot compete with artillery. But unlike Russia, they have an increasing supply of advanced western weapons and just as importantly trained soldiers. Those Russian soldiers currently getting wrecked in the trenches near Bakhmut often have less than two weeks of training. And the head of Wagner recently stated that he's losing 27 percent of his soldiers every month. None of this is sustainable.

It's unclear when and where the Ukrainian counteroffensive will occur. Certainly sometime in the next couple of weeks. HIMARs are presently hitting every fuel and arms depot they can find. There are reports that Russians are both leaving and burning documents in Melitopol. It's a largely indefensible city. If Ukraine takes it, Crimea is cut off. And Crimea is already precariously supplied. Regardless, there will be hard fighting in the months ahead. But I cannot see how this lasts longer than a rear. It will be boys fighting with sticks and stones at that point. It's a genuinely awful war.

I am not saying Russia will win. But I think it will be a long war. Russia won’t be ready to capitulate in a year.

I think Russia has already lost because there is no way Russia comes out of this thing in a better position than if it had never invaded at all. The only question remaining is how big of a loss and who else loses along with them.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/05/06/ukraine-counteroffensive-expectations-hype-russia/

“The expectation from our counteroffensive campaign is overestimated in the world,” Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said in an interview this past week. “Most people are … waiting for something huge,” he added, which he fears may lead to “emotional disappointment.”

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is not a video game folks. This is Bakhmut. The line between Good and Evil is empathy. Do you seriously believe ANYONE supports the Russian Government after watching this? I'm guessing even the Chinese CCP and PLA is uneasy about telling the Chinese people how great Russia is doing this to their own people?

And putting it another way, even Kevin McCarthy chose sides...
https://nypost.com/2023/05/01/mccarthy-rebukes-russian-reporter-i-do-not-support-what-your-country-has-done-to-ukraine/

Do you get it now?

I get it. I also get what would happen if Ukraine wins the war, to the Russian speaking people in Ukraine.
And Zelensky is demanding Crimea back.

This is nonsense. They don't have a problem with Russian speaking people, nor ethnic Russians. Even Zelenskyy grew up Russian speaking. There are many Russian-speaking people and ethnic Russians, as well as Russian expats serving in Ukraine's army to fight against Putin's violent, illegal, immoral invasion and occupation.

Reprisals in the Donbass. Perhaps they will need UN occupation.

There's someone who believes there is a 'winner' here? After so many deaths, I think the concept is misguided.

The issue is not Russian-speaking (as Russian propaganda has led the Russian population to believe). The issue is Russian-Government-supporting. I agree with the comments that although the Ukrainian Government will be tolerant of the Russian-speaking, but not the Russian-Government-supporting population. In general both groups will be faced with hard choices regarding whether to stay in Ukraine or move to Russia. If they stay, they will risk prosecution or legal action, based upon the level of crimes committed; similar to Nazi War Crime prosecutions that took decades to sort out.

I think OSCE in Crimea/Donbass to ensure fair political representation for Russian-speakers, Hague-led War Crimes committee, UNHCR medical / refugee repatriation, NATO de-mining operation, and IPTF protected by a temporary NATO-led border between the Russian and Ukrainian side would work to let both sides cool down and heal. This is nearly identical to the Bosnia IFOR/SFOR situation, which worked well, since everyone was tired of war and wanted a lasting peace.

My concern is the Russian-Government-Supporting population. It will be like the Russian-Serbs post-Yugoslavia. It takes a while for them to be unhooked from the propaganda and deprogrammed.

Interesting. I note the particular feat of mental acrobatics inherent in calling for freedom while criminalizing disapproval of the government. By all means. Let's make support and approval of the government mandatory, shall we? Elections are not necessary.

Also, things didn't work out well in the Balkans for all the groups involved. Like, at all. Go look at the state of things in independent Bosnia and report.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is not a video game folks. This is Bakhmut. The line between Good and Evil is empathy. Do you seriously believe ANYONE supports the Russian Government after watching this? I'm guessing even the Chinese CCP and PLA is uneasy about telling the Chinese people how great Russia is doing this to their own people?

And putting it another way, even Kevin McCarthy chose sides...
https://nypost.com/2023/05/01/mccarthy-rebukes-russian-reporter-i-do-not-support-what-your-country-has-done-to-ukraine/

Do you get it now?

I get it. I also get what would happen if Ukraine wins the war, to the Russian speaking people in Ukraine.
And Zelensky is demanding Crimea back.

This is nonsense. They don't have a problem with Russian speaking people, nor ethnic Russians. Even Zelenskyy grew up Russian speaking. There are many Russian-speaking people and ethnic Russians, as well as Russian expats serving in Ukraine's army to fight against Putin's violent, illegal, immoral invasion and occupation.

Next thing you'll tell us is Azerbaijan doesn't have a problem with ethnic Armenian of Artsakh.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is not a video game folks. This is Bakhmut. The line between Good and Evil is empathy. Do you seriously believe ANYONE supports the Russian Government after watching this? I'm guessing even the Chinese CCP and PLA is uneasy about telling the Chinese people how great Russia is doing this to their own people?

And putting it another way, even Kevin McCarthy chose sides...
https://nypost.com/2023/05/01/mccarthy-rebukes-russian-reporter-i-do-not-support-what-your-country-has-done-to-ukraine/

Do you get it now?

I get it. I also get what would happen if Ukraine wins the war, to the Russian speaking people in Ukraine.
And Zelensky is demanding Crimea back.

This is nonsense. They don't have a problem with Russian speaking people, nor ethnic Russians. Even Zelenskyy grew up Russian speaking. There are many Russian-speaking people and ethnic Russians, as well as Russian expats serving in Ukraine's army to fight against Putin's violent, illegal, immoral invasion and occupation.

There is a concerted de-Russification going on in Ukraine, that western media has glossed over. Russian speakers and ethnic Russians have been targeted in direct and indirect ways.

The wiki summary: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derussification_in_Ukraine
Al Jazeera for a better overview: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/15/how-ukrainians-de-russify-themselves-2

That's not "de-Russification" - your own articles mention that what's underlying it is about no longer glorifying brutal aspects of Imperial Russia and the Soviet Union. That's not an attack on the Russian people, it's about specific ideologies.

Odd that 19th century liberal poet Alexander Pushkin would be specifically targeted then? https://globaleuronews.com/2023/05/07/guardian-pushkin-became-the-main-target-of-ukrainian-wild-hatred/

Not really. He wrote this: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poltava_(poem)

LOL add to that the darlings of the West Joseph Brodsky and Alex Solzhenitsyn.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is not a video game folks. This is Bakhmut. The line between Good and Evil is empathy. Do you seriously believe ANYONE supports the Russian Government after watching this? I'm guessing even the Chinese CCP and PLA is uneasy about telling the Chinese people how great Russia is doing this to their own people?

And putting it another way, even Kevin McCarthy chose sides...
https://nypost.com/2023/05/01/mccarthy-rebukes-russian-reporter-i-do-not-support-what-your-country-has-done-to-ukraine/

Do you get it now?

I get it. I also get what would happen if Ukraine wins the war, to the Russian speaking people in Ukraine.
And Zelensky is demanding Crimea back.

This is nonsense. They don't have a problem with Russian speaking people, nor ethnic Russians. Even Zelenskyy grew up Russian speaking. There are many Russian-speaking people and ethnic Russians, as well as Russian expats serving in Ukraine's army to fight against Putin's violent, illegal, immoral invasion and occupation.

There is a concerted de-Russification going on in Ukraine, that western media has glossed over. Russian speakers and ethnic Russians have been targeted in direct and indirect ways.

The wiki summary: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derussification_in_Ukraine
Al Jazeera for a better overview: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/15/how-ukrainians-de-russify-themselves-2

That's not "de-Russification" - your own articles mention that what's underlying it is about no longer glorifying brutal aspects of Imperial Russia and the Soviet Union. That's not an attack on the Russian people, it's about specific ideologies.

Odd that 19th century liberal poet Alexander Pushkin would be specifically targeted then? https://globaleuronews.com/2023/05/07/guardian-pushkin-became-the-main-target-of-ukrainian-wild-hatred/

Not really. He wrote this: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poltava_(poem)

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is not a video game folks. This is Bakhmut. The line between Good and Evil is empathy. Do you seriously believe ANYONE supports the Russian Government after watching this? I'm guessing even the Chinese CCP and PLA is uneasy about telling the Chinese people how great Russia is doing this to their own people?

And putting it another way, even Kevin McCarthy chose sides...
https://nypost.com/2023/05/01/mccarthy-rebukes-russian-reporter-i-do-not-support-what-your-country-has-done-to-ukraine/

Do you get it now?

I get it. I also get what would happen if Ukraine wins the war, to the Russian speaking people in Ukraine.
And Zelensky is demanding Crimea back.

This is nonsense. They don't have a problem with Russian speaking people, nor ethnic Russians. Even Zelenskyy grew up Russian speaking. There are many Russian-speaking people and ethnic Russians, as well as Russian expats serving in Ukraine's army to fight against Putin's violent, illegal, immoral invasion and occupation.

There is a concerted de-Russification going on in Ukraine, that western media has glossed over. Russian speakers and ethnic Russians have been targeted in direct and indirect ways.

The wiki summary: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derussification_in_Ukraine
Al Jazeera for a better overview: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/15/how-ukrainians-de-russify-themselves-2

That's not "de-Russification" - your own articles mention that what's underlying it is about no longer glorifying brutal aspects of Imperial Russia and the Soviet Union. That's not an attack on the Russian people, it's about specific ideologies.

Odd that 19th century liberal poet Alexander Pushkin would be specifically targeted then? https://globaleuronews.com/2023/05/07/guardian-pushkin-became-the-main-target-of-ukrainian-wild-hatred/

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is not a video game folks. This is Bakhmut. The line between Good and Evil is empathy. Do you seriously believe ANYONE supports the Russian Government after watching this? I'm guessing even the Chinese CCP and PLA is uneasy about telling the Chinese people how great Russia is doing this to their own people?

And putting it another way, even Kevin McCarthy chose sides...
https://nypost.com/2023/05/01/mccarthy-rebukes-russian-reporter-i-do-not-support-what-your-country-has-done-to-ukraine/

Do you get it now?

I get it. I also get what would happen if Ukraine wins the war, to the Russian speaking people in Ukraine.
And Zelensky is demanding Crimea back.

This is nonsense. They don't have a problem with Russian speaking people, nor ethnic Russians. Even Zelenskyy grew up Russian speaking. There are many Russian-speaking people and ethnic Russians, as well as Russian expats serving in Ukraine's army to fight against Putin's violent, illegal, immoral invasion and occupation.

There is a concerted de-Russification going on in Ukraine, that western media has glossed over. Russian speakers and ethnic Russians have been targeted in direct and indirect ways.

The wiki summary: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derussification_in_Ukraine
Al Jazeera for a better overview: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/15/how-ukrainians-de-russify-themselves-2

It's worth noting that the exact same sources lamenting Ukraine pushing back on Russian colonialism also write articles cheering Africa and other parts of the world for pushing back on Western colonialism.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is not a video game folks. This is Bakhmut. The line between Good and Evil is empathy. Do you seriously believe ANYONE supports the Russian Government after watching this? I'm guessing even the Chinese CCP and PLA is uneasy about telling the Chinese people how great Russia is doing this to their own people?

And putting it another way, even Kevin McCarthy chose sides...
https://nypost.com/2023/05/01/mccarthy-rebukes-russian-reporter-i-do-not-support-what-your-country-has-done-to-ukraine/

Do you get it now?

I get it. I also get what would happen if Ukraine wins the war, to the Russian speaking people in Ukraine.
And Zelensky is demanding Crimea back.

This is nonsense. They don't have a problem with Russian speaking people, nor ethnic Russians. Even Zelenskyy grew up Russian speaking. There are many Russian-speaking people and ethnic Russians, as well as Russian expats serving in Ukraine's army to fight against Putin's violent, illegal, immoral invasion and occupation.

There is a concerted de-Russification going on in Ukraine, that western media has glossed over. Russian speakers and ethnic Russians have been targeted in direct and indirect ways.

The wiki summary: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derussification_in_Ukraine
Al Jazeera for a better overview: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/15/how-ukrainians-de-russify-themselves-2

That's not "de-Russification" - your own articles mention that what's underlying it is about no longer glorifying brutal aspects of Imperial Russia and the Soviet Union. That's not an attack on the Russian people, it's about specific ideologies.