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Reply to "Ukrainian victory over Russia is inevitable "
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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][twitter]https://twitter.com/ngrossman81/status/1653103454359805962?s=46&t=kf1qYlCXQnKgUhJWEIu2vg[/twitter][/quote] Doesn't anyone ever ask how does NATO/UA know how many Russian casualties there are? [/quote] They don't know. It's just informed guessing, if that.[/quote] They are using NATO models for estimating casualties. Obviously, it's impossible to have a 100 percent accurate count in a war of this scale where more than a 1000 soldiers on both sides are dying every day. Ukraine has admitted to presently having more than 7500 MIAs, presumably dead. God knows how many Russians are presently fertilizing Ukrainian land. But I think Ukraine has a pretty good internal sense of what the true casualty count is. That being said, I would take their public statements with a grain of salt. I believe they're publicly stating that roughly 195,000 Russian soldiers have been killed. That's probably not quite true. 195,000 total Russian casualties - killed and injured - is probably more accurate. 1:2 KIA vs injured is probably a reasonable ratio since Russian battlefield medical is nonexistent and without air superiority they can't do air medevacs. Given that the Russians started with an invading force of 200,000 this has been an absolute catastrophe for them. Of course, it's been awful for Ukrainians too but they are fighting for their families and their homes and [b]they will endure it until the last man standing.[/b] It's a grim war and it's only going to get worse in the months ahead. [/quote] I hate to break it to you but there is a chunk of Ukraine that doesn't care who rules it, as long as the shooting stops. Independence is a goal for many Ukrainians but not all.[/quote] You are very wrong about that. This war has changed everything, even among the Russian speakers in Ukraine. No one in Ukraine will accept Russian domination at this point. Too much has changed. Too much death. Too much destruction. Too many war crimes. There are many, many native Russian speaking Ukrainians fighting with the AFU. As for the circa-2014 separatist fighters from Donetsk and Luhansk, they're all dead now.[/quote] EVERYONE in Ukraine is a Russian speaker. What is this "Russian speakers" in Ukraine, as if there is any such thing as a non-Russian-speaking Ukrainian.[/quote] There's a difference between speaking Russian, and it being your native language. The majority of Ukrainians consider Ukrainian as their native language. But, the Russian invasion burned away any delusions anyone might have had that they could live peacefully with Russia, even if they considered themselves ethnically Russian. The Russians invaders were happy to murder, rape and loot their way through Russian-speaking areas in eastern Ukraine. [/quote] This is correct. There are some oblasts in the east that were predominantly native Russian speakers but the remainder is predominantly Ukrainian speaking, and in places like Kharkiv, though native Russian speaking, they no longer have much of any sympathy or allegiance or sense of brotherhood to Russia, due to the war. Russian conduct since the invasion has brought them nothing but anger and resentment. Also remember that in in 1991, in EVERY oblast, including Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk, overwhelmingly voted to split and become an independent and sovereign Ukraine, and did not want to be part of the Russian Federation. [/quote]
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